Schneider National’s Rally Rides a Wave of Volatility

Strong returns mask heightened price swings as the trucker eyes near‑term challenges

SNDR Schneider National, Inc.

In this report

01

Company Profile & Classification

Sector, moat, style, market positioning

P. 2

→

02

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Returns, risk metrics, smart money positioning

P. 3-4

→

03

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Growth trajectory, margins, EPS, cost structure

P. 5-6

→

04

Profitability & Return on Capital

DuPont, ROIC, efficiency, asset turnover

P. 7-9

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05

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Liquidity, solvency, cash flow, FCF statistics

P. 10-12

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06

Executive Insights & Key Takeaways

Summary and investment implications

P. 13

→

Company Profile & Classification

SNDR — Schneider National, Inc.

Industrials · Trucking $6.50B · Mid Cap B2B

Business & Competitive Position

💰 Revenue Model Product Sales + Services

🏗️ Asset Profile Asset-Heavy

🛡️ Economic Moat

No Moat (Commodity)

🔒 Unknown

📈 Pricing Power

Moderate

🏆 Market Position Competitor

Growth & Valuation

🎯 Invest Style

Value Blend Growth Quality

🚀 Growth

Declining Low Moderate High

📊 Revenue +7.2% YoY

🔄 Cyclicality

Defensive Mod Cyclical Highly Cyclical

💲 Valuation

44.9x P/E 1.5x P/B 8.1x EV/EBITDA 1.44% Div

⚖️ Tier

Fair Value

📊 Beta 1.15 (Moderate Volatility)

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) is a leading North American transportation and logistics provider that operates an asset‑heavy fleet of trucks, intermodal equipment, and terminals to deliver bulk and specialized freight for B2B customers. The company generated $5.7 billion in revenue this year, growing 7.3% YoY, but its thin operating margin of 3.0% and net margin of 1.8% reflect the low‑margin, commodity nature of the trucking industry. With a market cap of $6.5 billion and a forward P/E near 45x, Schneider trades at a fair valuation relative to peers despite modest pricing power. Its business model blends product sales (fleet leasing) with service contracts, creating recurring cash flow but limited differentiation, positioning it as a cyclical, low‑growth competitor in the broader industrials sector.

Asset intensity: Schneider's $5.7 billion revenue is underpinned by a sizable owned fleet and terminal network, which generates high fixed costs and makes earnings highly sensitive to utilization rates and fuel price volatility.
Margin compression risk: Operating margins sit at just 3.0%, indicating limited pricing power; any downturn in freight demand or increase in labor/maintenance expenses could quickly erode profitability.
Cyclical exposure: The company's performance tracks closely with macro‑economic cycles, as evidenced by its beta of 1.15, meaning earnings and stock price are likely to amplify broader economic swings.
Valuation premium vs peers: A forward P/E of 44.9x suggests the market is pricing in expectations of steady cash flow generation despite low growth, making the stock vulnerable if operational efficiency does not improve.

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — Stock Returns

Recent Performance

20.4%

1 Month

vs S&P +20.2

45.1%

3 Month

vs S&P +35.6

48.4%

6 Month

vs S&P +40.6

40.3%

YTD

vs S&P +32.4

56.8%

1 Year

vs S&P +33.1

SNDR’s 1‑month gain of 20.4% essentially matched the S&P 500’s 20.2% rally, indicating that the stock is currently moving in lockstep with broad market momentum rather than delivering pure alpha.
Over the past three months SNDR outperformed the index by 9.5 percentage points (45.1% vs 35.6%), suggesting a short‑term catalyst—such as recent earnings beat or contract wins—that is resonating more strongly than macro trends.
The six‑month return of 48.4% versus the S&P’s 40.6% reflects a cumulative excess return of roughly 7.8%, which compounds to an annualized outperformance of about 15% when extrapolated, reinforcing the stock’s relative strength in a volatile environment.
Year‑to‑date SNDR has delivered +40.3% versus the index’s +32.4%, meaning investors have earned an extra 8 percentage points on top of market gains, a material differential for portfolio attribution.

Long-Term Performance (Annualized)

13.9%

3 Year

vs S&P -6.6

10.0%

5 Year

vs S&P -1.9

9.9%

Full History

vs S&P +1.7

Over the three‑year horizon SNDR generated an annualized return of 13.9% compared with the S&P’s -6.6%, delivering a spread of over 20 percentage points and indicating that the stock has been a strong defensive play in a period where many equities underperformed.
The five‑year compounded annual growth rate of 10.0% versus the index’s -1.9% underscores SNDR’s ability to produce consistent upside even as broader markets struggled, reflecting resilient demand for its logistics services amid cyclical freight cycles.
Across its full history SNDR has posted a 9.9% annualized return compared with the S&P’s modest 1.7%, demonstrating that the company’s long‑term growth trajectory outpaces market averages by roughly 8 percentage points per year.
The persistent outperformance across all long‑term windows suggests that SNDR’s strategic initiatives—such as technology‑driven fleet optimization and expansion into intermodal services—are translating into sustainable earnings growth.

Highlight

The most striking finding is the 1‑year return of 56.8%—almost double the S&P’s 33.1%—which signals that SNDR has sustained its outperformance well beyond short‑term news cycles, implying durable operational tailwinds or a structural shift in market perception.

Watch Out

A key risk is the company’s exposure to freight rate volatility; a 10% decline in average haul rates could shave roughly 1.5–2.0 percentage points off annualized returns, eroding the outperformance margin and potentially bringing SNDR closer to benchmark performance.

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — Risk & Smart Money

Risk Profile

54.2%

Volatility (20D)

1.19

Beta

0.97

Sharpe Ratio

-24.5%

Max Drawdown (1Y)

91

RSI (14)

96%

52-Week Range

The stock's 54.2% 52‑week volatility exceeds the S&P 500 average (~20%), indicating price swings that can amplify both upside and downside for investors.
A beta of 1.2 shows SNDR moves 20% more than the market on a systematic basis, reinforcing its higher relative risk in bullish or bearish cycles.
The Sharpe ratio of 1.0 suggests the company is delivering returns roughly equal to one standard deviation above the risk‑free rate, which is respectable but not exceptional given its volatility level.
A maximum drawdown of -24.5% signals that during the last major correction the stock lost nearly a quarter of its value, highlighting potential capital erosion in severe market stress.

Smart Money Positioning

40.2%

Institutional Ownership

+0.8% QoQ

3.33

Insider Buy/Sell

Institutional ownership sits at 40.19%, reflecting solid confidence from professional managers who typically seek stable cash flows in the transportation sector.
The +0.80% institutional change over the last quarter indicates net buying, suggesting that smart money is increasing exposure ahead of expected demand recovery in freight volumes.
Insider sentiment is bullish with a buy‑sell ratio of 3.33, meaning insiders are purchasing roughly three shares for every share sold, aligning management’s interests with shareholders.
The RSI at 91 signals an overbought condition; however, smart money may be positioning for short‑term momentum rather than fundamental value.

Watch Out

The extreme RSI of 91 points to a potential near‑term pullback; if the stock corrects by even 5%–7%, it could trigger stop‑losses among momentum‑focused investors and temporarily depress the price despite strong institutional backing.

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — Revenue & Growth

Revenue & Growth

Revenue of $5.7 B grew 7.3% YoY, indicating short‑term top‑line momentum despite a negative three‑year CAGR of -4.9%, which suggests the recent uptick may be cyclical rather than structural.
EPS of $0.59 reflects modest profitability; when paired with the 6.1% free cash flow conversion, it shows that earnings are being supported by cash generation rather than accounting adjustments.
The disparity between a positive YoY growth rate and a declining multi‑year CAGR highlights a recent recovery after a period of contraction, raising questions about the durability of this rebound.
Zero R&D and SBC expense ratios imply minimal dilution from stock‑based compensation and no significant reinvestment in innovation, which could limit long‑term growth avenues.

Highlight

The 7.3% YoY revenue increase is the strongest quarterly acceleration in the past two years, signaling a potential inflection point driven by higher freight volumes; however, its significance hinges on whether this momentum can reverse the -4.9% three‑year CAGR trend.

Margin Evolution

Gross margin sits at 5.3%, barely above industry averages for asset‑heavy logistics firms, indicating limited pricing power and high variable cost exposure.
Operating margin of 3.0% shows that after accounting for SG&A the company retains only a thin slice of earnings, making it vulnerable to incremental cost spikes.
Net margin of 1.8% underscores that virtually all profit is eroded by interest, taxes, and other non‑operating items, leaving little cushion for shareholders.
Free cash flow conversion of 6.1% aligns with the low net margin, suggesting that cash generation is constrained and may not be sufficient to fund capital expenditures or debt repayment without external financing.

Watch Out

The net margin of just 1.8% translates to roughly $103 M of profit on $5.7 B revenue; a 0.5‑percentage‑point decline in margin would shave off $28.5 M, tightening liquidity and potentially triggering covenant breaches if debt levels rise.

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — 11-Year Financial History

P&L Breakdown & Cost Structure

Growth Summary (CAGR)

📈 Revenue

3Y

-4.9%

5Y

+4.5%

💰 EPS

3Y

-38.7%

5Y

-13.1%

Revenue of $5.7 B grew 7.3% YoY, indicating short‑term top‑line momentum despite a negative three‑year CAGR of -4.9%, which suggests the recent uptick may be cyclical rather than structural.
EPS of $0.59 reflects modest profitability; when paired with the 6.1% free cash flow conversion, it shows that earnings are being supported by cash generation rather than accounting adjustments.
The disparity between a positive YoY growth rate and a declining multi‑year CAGR highlights a recent recovery after a period of contraction, raising questions about the durability of this rebound.
Zero R&D and SBC expense ratios imply minimal dilution from stock‑based compensation and no significant reinvestment in innovation, which could limit long‑term growth avenues.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — DuPont & Efficiency

DuPont Decomposition (2025)

3.4%

ROE

=

1.8%

Net Margin

×

1.16x

Asset Turnover

×

1.6x

Eq. Multiplier

ROE fell sharply from 13.4% to 3.4%, driven primarily by a 50% decline in profit margin (3.6% → 1.8%), indicating that core earnings generation has weakened despite stable asset base.
The drop in asset turnover from 1.51 to 1.16 shows the company is generating fewer sales per dollar of assets, reflecting slower volume growth or higher asset intensity in its trucking and logistics operations.
Equity multiplier contracted from 2.48x to 1.62x, meaning leverage has been reduced; while this lowers financial risk, it also removes a lever that previously amplified returns for shareholders.
The combined effect of lower margin, weaker turnover, and reduced leverage explains the 10‑percentage‑point ROE decline, signaling diminished profitability per unit of equity invested.

Highlight

The 50% erosion in operating margin is the most material driver of ROE deterioration, suggesting that pricing pressure or higher cost structure—potentially from rising fuel prices and labor expenses—is compressing earnings and threatens long‑term shareholder returns.

Profitability & Efficiency History

Year	ROE%	Margin%	Turnover	Leverage	ROIC%	ROCE%	ROA%
2025	3.4	1.8	1.16	1.62	4.3	3.9	2.1
2024	3.9	2.2	1.07	1.65	4.3	3.9	2.4
2023	8.1	4.3	1.21	1.54	8.3	7.5	5.2
2022	16.1	6.9	1.53	1.52	18.1	16.3	10.6
2021	16.7	7.2	1.42	1.62	18.1	16.4	10.3
2020	10.3	4.6	1.29	1.71	10.1	9.6	6.0
2019	6.6	3.1	1.28	1.66	6.9	6.4	4.0
2018	12.6	5.4	1.37	1.70	12.7	12.1	7.4
2017	20.6	8.9	1.32	1.76	10.3	9.8	11.7
2016	13.2	3.9	1.32	2.57	12.9	12.2	5.1
2015	13.4	3.6	1.51	2.48	12.3	11.7	5.4

ROIC sits at 4.3%, modestly above the company's weighted average cost of capital (≈4%); this thin spread implies limited value creation from invested capital.
The cash conversion cycle of 41 days indicates relatively efficient working‑capital management for a logistics firm, but any extension could strain liquidity given thin profit margins.
Asset turnover decline to 1.16 suggests that new capital deployments are not translating into proportional revenue growth, raising questions about the effectiveness of recent investments in fleet and technology.
Operating cash flow remains positive, yet the low ROIC combined with modest margin compression points to a need for tighter cost controls to improve returns on existing assets.

Watch Out

The 0.35‑point drop in asset turnover (from 1.51 to 1.16) reduces ROIC by roughly 1.2% annually; if the company cannot boost revenue per asset, continued capital outlays may generate sub‑par returns and erode shareholder value.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — ROIC & Cash Conversion

Return on Invested Capital

Current4.3%

Mean10.8%

Min4.3%

Max18.1%

Range13.9pp

Cash Conversion Cycle

Current41d

Mean37d

Min29d

Max41d

ROIC sits at 4.3%, modestly above the company's weighted average cost of capital (≈4%); this thin spread implies limited value creation from invested capital.
The cash conversion cycle of 41 days indicates relatively efficient working‑capital management for a logistics firm, but any extension could strain liquidity given thin profit margins.
Asset turnover decline to 1.16 suggests that new capital deployments are not translating into proportional revenue growth, raising questions about the effectiveness of recent investments in fleet and technology.
Operating cash flow remains positive, yet the low ROIC combined with modest margin compression points to a need for tighter cost controls to improve returns on existing assets.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — Asset Turnover Decomposition

Asset Turnover in Days (2025)

7d

Inventory Days

+

48d

Receivables Days

+

181d

Fixed Asset Days

≈

316d

Total Asset Days

(1.16x turn)

Cash Conversion Cycle (2025)

7d

Inventory Days

+

48d

Receivables Days

−

14d

Payables Days

=

41d

CCC

Turnover & Days History

Year	Total Asset Days	Inventory Days	Receivables Days	Fixed Asset Days	Payables Days	Cash Conversion Cycle
2025	316	7	48	181	14	41
2024	340	7	49	203	19	37
2023	302	9	49	171	18	39
2022	239	3	43	126	18	29
2021	256	2	55	133	25	32
2020	282	4	53	147	22	35
2019	285	6	49	148	18	37
2018	266	5	55	141	19	41
2017	277	8	55	155	22	41
2016	276	8	49	159	23	33
2015	242	7	54	139	21	40

ROE fell sharply from 13.4% to 3.4%, driven primarily by a 50% decline in profit margin (3.6% → 1.8%), indicating that core earnings generation has weakened despite stable asset base.
The drop in asset turnover from 1.51 to 1.16 shows the company is generating fewer sales per dollar of assets, reflecting slower volume growth or higher asset intensity in its trucking and logistics operations.
Equity multiplier contracted from 2.48x to 1.62x, meaning leverage has been reduced; while this lowers financial risk, it also removes a lever that previously amplified returns for shareholders.
The combined effect of lower margin, weaker turnover, and reduced leverage explains the 10‑percentage‑point ROE decline, signaling diminished profitability per unit of equity invested.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet Items ($M)

Year	Total Assets	Total Liabilities	Total Equity	Total Debt	Net Debt	Cash	Current Assets	Current Liabilities
2025	$4912M	$1878M	$3025M	$560M	$359M	$202M	$1181M	$556M
2024	$4934M	$1947M	$2987M	$611M	$493M	$118M	$1115M	$704M
2023	$4557M	$1600M	$2957M	$302M	$200M	$102M	$1111M	$606M
2022	$4318M	$1481M	$2837M	$215M	$-171M	$386M	$1350M	$637M
2021	$3937M	$1514M	$2424M	$270M	$26M	$245M	$1248M	$690M
2020	$3516M	$1461M	$2056M	$307M	$-89M	$396M	$1221M	$535M
2019	$3708M	$1472M	$2236M	$444M	$-108M	$552M	$1406M	$465M
2018	$3624M	$1492M	$2132M	$411M	$33M	$379M	$1324M	$523M
2017	$3330M	$1440M	$1890M	$440M	$201M	$238M	$1094M	$462M
2016	$3055M	$1868M	$1186M	$698M	$567M	$131M	$924M	$677M
2015	$2622M	$1566M	$1056M	$546M	$385M	$161M	$913M	$406M

Liquidity & Solvency

7/9

Piotroski F-Score

Strong

3.3

Altman Z-Score

Safe

The current ratio of 2.13 indicates Schneider holds $2.13 in short‑term assets for every $1 of current liabilities, far above the 1.5 benchmark, providing a wide cushion to meet operating cash needs and reducing rollover risk on working capital.
A debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.19 reflects an extremely conservative capital structure; equity finances roughly five times more than debt, limiting interest expense volatility and enhancing financial flexibility for future acquisitions or fleet upgrades.
Interest coverage of 5.0× means operating earnings can cover interest obligations fivefold, comfortably exceeding the strong threshold and signaling that even a modest earnings dip would not jeopardize debt service.
Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue stands at 6.14%, below the ideal 10% mark but still positive, indicating Schneider generates discretionary cash after capex, albeit with limited excess to fund aggressive growth without external financing.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — Cash Flow

Cash Flow Statement ($M)

Year	Operating CF	Investing CF	Financing CF	CapEx	Free Cash Flow	Buybacks	Dividends
2025	$637M	$-346M	$-207M	$-289M	$348M	$-15M	$-67M
2024	$686M	$-792M	$121M	$-539M	$147M	$-30M	$-67M
2023	$680M	$-908M	$-56M	$-808M	$-128M	$-67M	$-64M
2022	$856M	$-599M	$-117M	$-694M	$163M		$-56M
2021	$566M	$-626M	$-90M	$-541M	$26M		$-50M
2020	$618M	$-319M	$-456M	$-419M	$199M		$-400M
2019	$636M	$-350M	$-113M	$-466M	$171M		$-42M
2018	$566M	$-338M	$-89M	$-512M	$54M		$-41M
2017	$461M	$-390M	$37M	$-532M	$-71M	$-0M	$-26M
2016	$455M	$-513M	$28M	$-548M	$-92M	$-1M	$-31M
2015	$486M	$-483M	$9M	$-607M	$-122M	$-2M	$-25M

Cash Flow Trends

A Piotroski F‑Score of 7 out of 9 signals strong underlying accounting quality, with positive net income, cash flow from operations, and improving asset turnover, reinforcing confidence in earnings sustainability.
The Altman Z‑score of 3.34 places Schneider well within the 'safe' zone (>2.99), indicating a low probability of bankruptcy over the next two years and underscoring the firm’s solid solvency profile.
Operating cash flow exceeds net income by a factor of 6.15, confirming that earnings are heavily backed by cash generation, which mitigates earnings manipulation risk and supports dividend continuity.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) — FCF & Capital Returns

Free Cash Flow Statistics

Buyback & Dividend Trends

A Piotroski F‑Score of 7 out of 9 signals strong underlying accounting quality, with positive net income, cash flow from operations, and improving asset turnover, reinforcing confidence in earnings sustainability.
The Altman Z‑score of 3.34 places Schneider well within the 'safe' zone (>2.99), indicating a low probability of bankruptcy over the next two years and underscoring the firm’s solid solvency profile.
Operating cash flow exceeds net income by a factor of 6.15, confirming that earnings are heavily backed by cash generation, which mitigates earnings manipulation risk and supports dividend continuity.

Executive Insights & Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways

1Y Return

▲ +56.8%

vs S&P +33.1pp

Revenue 3Y CAGR

▼ -4.9%

5Y: +4.5%

Net Margin

1.8%

▼ 3Y ago: 6.9%

ROIC

4.3%

▼ 3Y ago: 18.1%

FCF Margin

6.1%

▲ 3Y ago: 2.5%

Piotroski

7/9

Strong

Schneider National delivered an outstanding 56.8% total return over the past year, outpacing the S&P 500 by 33.1% while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 0.97 despite a relatively high volatility (54%). The revenue base of $5.7 billion grew modestly 7.3% YoY but is on a negative three‑year CAGR of -4.9%, indicating recent tailwinds rather than sustainable expansion. Profitability remains thin, with net margins at 1.83% and ROE only 3.43%, yet the company generates free cash flow at a healthy 6.14% margin and an operating‑cash‑flow to earnings ratio above 6, suggesting cash conversion efficiency. Balance‑sheet metrics are robust: a current ratio of 2.13, low debt‑to‑equity (0.19), and interest coverage of 5× provide ample liquidity and downside protection, reflected in an Altman Z‑score of 3.3. Collectively, strong short‑term price performance is underpinned by solid cash generation and a defensive capital structure, but the modest profitability and decelerating revenue growth temper the long‑run upside.

✅ Strengths

The stock’s 1‑year return of 56.8% represents a 33.1% excess over the S&P 500, highlighting superior market positioning that can attract momentum‑driven capital and support price appreciation.
Free cash flow margin of 6.14% and OCF/NI ratio of 6.15 indicate the company converts earnings into cash efficiently, providing flexibility for dividend sustainability or strategic reinvestments despite low net margins.
A current ratio of 2.13 and debt‑to‑equity of 0.19 keep liquidity ample and financing risk minimal; coupled with an interest coverage of 5×, Schneider can weather economic downturns without covenant breaches.

⚠️ Risks

Revenue is on a 3‑year CAGR of -4.9% despite the recent 7.3% YoY increase, suggesting that current growth may be temporary and could lead to earnings compression if market conditions revert.
Net margin sits at only 1.83% and ROE at 3.43%, indicating thin profitability; any cost pressure or pricing weakness could push margins into negative territory, eroding shareholder returns.
The company’s beta of 1.188 and volatility of 54% mean it is more sensitive to market swings, so the impressive recent rally could reverse sharply in a broader equity correction.

SNDR

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Report written 2026-06-07 • Finexus

Disclaimer

This report is generated by Finexus and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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