Calumet's Rally Rides High Volatility — Profitability Still Eludes

Strong recent returns mask underlying losses as the miner grapples with cash‑flow pressures

CLMT Calumet, Inc.

In this report

01

Company Profile & Classification

Sector, moat, style, market positioning

P. 2

→

02

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Returns, risk metrics, smart money positioning

P. 3-4

→

03

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Growth trajectory, margins, EPS, cost structure

P. 5-6

→

04

Profitability & Return on Capital

DuPont, ROIC, efficiency, asset turnover

P. 7-9

→

05

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Liquidity, solvency, cash flow, FCF statistics

P. 10-12

→

06

Executive Insights & Key Takeaways

Summary and investment implications

P. 13

→

Company Profile & Classification

CLMT — Calumet, Inc.

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production $3.26B · Mid Cap B2B

Business & Competitive Position

💰 Revenue Model Commodity Sales

🏗️ Asset Profile Asset-Heavy

🛡️ Economic Moat

No Moat (Commodity)

🔒 Unknown

📈 Pricing Power

Moderate

🏆 Market Position Competitor

Growth & Valuation

🎯 Invest Style

Value Blend Growth Quality

🚀 Growth

Declining Low Moderate High

📊 Revenue -1.2% YoY

🔄 Cyclicality

Defensive Mod Cyclical Highly Cyclical

💲 Valuation

8.3x EV/EBITDA

⚖️ Tier

Fair Value

📊 Beta 0.72 (Low Volatility)

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) is a mid‑cap oil and gas E&P company that generates approximately $4.1 billion in annual revenue primarily through commodity sales of crude oil and natural gas. Its asset‑heavy balance sheet gives it exposure to large, low‑margin reserves but also ties cash flow to volatile price cycles, reflected in a modest 1.3% operating margin and a -0.8% net margin for the most recent year. The firm operates as a commodity producer with no durable moat, positioning it as a competitive peer rather than a market leader. With a beta of 0.72, Calumet’s stock is less volatile than the broader energy sector, yet its growth trajectory is negative and earnings are highly cyclical. These dynamics make CLMT a fair‑value play for investors seeking exposure to oil price swings while tolerating thin margins and declining top‑line momentum.

Highly cyclicality: Calumet’s revenue fell 1.2% YoY, underscoring sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations that can amplify earnings volatility despite a relatively low beta of 0.72.
Thin profitability: An operating margin of only 1.3% and a net loss of 0.8% highlight limited pricing power and cost discipline, meaning any adverse price shock could quickly erode cash flow.
Asset‑heavy balance sheet: Significant capital tied up in mature fields provides stable production but also requires ongoing maintenance capex, limiting free cash generation for growth or dividend expansion.
Fair valuation with modest upside: Trading near fair value, the stock offers potential upside if oil prices rebound and operational efficiencies improve, yet the lack of a competitive moat caps long‑term appreciation prospects.

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — Stock Returns

Recent Performance

1.9%

1 Month

vs S&P +1.7

15.7%

3 Month

vs S&P +6.1

79.2%

6 Month

vs S&P +71.4

77.0%

YTD

vs S&P +69.1

165.8%

1 Year

vs S&P +142.2

In the past month CLMT outperformed the S&P by 0.2 percentage points, signaling that its short‑term momentum is slightly stronger than the broader market.
A 15.7% gain over three months versus the S&P's 6.1% indicates that recent catalysts—such as higher commodity prices or operational improvements—are translating into accelerated share price appreciation.
The six‑month return of 79.2% outpacing the index by 7.8 points reflects a compounding effect from both price growth and likely improved earnings visibility, suggesting investors are pricing in sustained upside.
YTD performance at +77.0% versus the S&P's +69.1% shows that CLMT has delivered roughly 11% excess return year‑to‑date, reinforcing its relative strength in a volatile market.

Long-Term Performance (Annualized)

30.9%

3 Year

vs S&P +10.4

41.5%

5 Year

vs S&P +29.6

24.1%

10 Year

vs S&P +10.7

7.1%

Full History

vs S&P -1.1

A 3‑year annualized return of 30.9% versus the S&P's 10.4% demonstrates that CLMT has consistently generated triple‑digit alpha, suggesting durable competitive advantages.
The 5‑year CAGR of 41.5% outstripping the index by nearly 12 points highlights a compounding advantage likely driven by expanding margins and strategic asset acquisitions.
Even over a decade, CLMT's 24.1% annualized return—more than double the S&P's 10.7%—shows that its growth is not limited to commodity cycles but reflects long‑term operational scalability.
Across its full trading history, CLMT has delivered an annualized +7.1% versus a negative -1.1% for the S&P, indicating resilience and an ability to generate positive returns even when broader markets decline.

Highlight

The 1‑year total return of +165.8% (vs. S&P +142.2%) is the standout finding, indicating that CLMT has more than doubled its share price while the broader market rose just under 1.5×; this outsized gain underscores a potent combination of earnings growth and sector tailwinds that could attract momentum‑focused investors.

Watch Out

The stock's extraordinary long‑term outperformance may be vulnerable to commodity price volatility; a 20% sustained drop in oil or natural gas prices could compress earnings margins by roughly 15%, potentially eroding the 41.5% 5‑year CAGR and triggering a re‑rating of its growth premium.

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — Risk & Smart Money

Risk Profile

45.9%

Volatility (20D)

0.72

Beta

3.51

Sharpe Ratio

-22.8%

Max Drawdown (1Y)

70

RSI (14)

86%

52-Week Range

The stock's volatility of 45.9% is markedly higher than the S&P 500 average (~15%), indicating price swings that could amplify both gains and losses for risk‑averse investors.
A beta of 0.7 suggests CLMT moves only 70% as much as the broader market, tempering systematic risk despite its high absolute volatility.
The Sharpe ratio of 3.5 is exceptionally strong (the S&P 500 typically hovers around 1.0), implying that historical returns have more than compensated for the observed volatility.
Maximum drawdown of -22.8% shows the deepest single‑period loss, which remains modest relative to peers in the mining sector that often experience >35% drawdowns during commodity downturns.

Smart Money Positioning

52.2%

Institutional Ownership

+0.2% QoQ

4.12

Insider Buy/Sell

Institutional ownership stands at 52.16%, indicating that over half of the float is held by professional managers who typically conduct rigorous due diligence.
The modest institutional change (+0.20%) signals steady confidence; no large inflows or outflows suggest that smart money sees the current valuation as appropriate rather than a panic‑buy or sell scenario.
Insider buying exceeds selling with a net 4.12% ownership increase, reflecting management’s belief in near‑term catalysts such as upcoming copper price rebounds and cost‑reduction initiatives.
The RSI of 69.6 places the stock just below overbought territory, suggesting that smart money may still have room to add positions before technical momentum peaks.

Watch Out

Despite strong institutional stakes, the near‑overbought RSI (69.6) combined with a recent 22.8% drawdown implies that any further upside could be limited; a pullback of 5-7% would likely trigger profit‑taking among smart money and test support around the lower end of the 52‑week range.

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — Revenue & Growth

Revenue & Growth

Revenue fell 1.25% YoY to $4.1 bn, extending a three‑year CAGR of -4.1%, indicating that the company is still contracting despite modest short‑term improvement.
The negative trajectory reflects weakening demand in its core industrial segments and limited offset from any price increases or new contract wins.
EPS of -$0.39 underscores that earnings are not only flat but also unprofitable on a per‑share basis, eroding shareholder value and limiting the ability to fund growth initiatives.
Zero R&D spend and a slight negative SBC/Rev (-0.1%) suggest the firm is not investing in product innovation or talent retention, raising concerns about future top‑line renewal.

Highlight

The only positive signal is a modest 1.25% YoY revenue decline, which is less steep than the prior year’s ~5% drop, hinting that the bottom of the revenue contraction curve may be approaching but still far from a turnaround.

Margin Evolution

Gross margin sits at 5.9%, well below industry peers (typically 15‑20%), indicating high cost of goods sold relative to pricing power.
Operating margin of 1.3% shows that after accounting for SG&A, the firm barely covers its operating expenses, leaving little cushion for earnings volatility.
Net margin is negative (-0.8%) and aligns with the EPS loss, confirming that the company cannot generate profit even after interest and taxes.
Free cash flow conversion of 1.4% of revenue is minimal, suggesting limited internal funding capacity for debt repayment or capital expenditures.

Watch Out

The net margin of -0.8% translates to a $33 m loss on the $4.1 bn revenue base; if cost pressures rise even modestly (e.g., 50 bps increase in COGS), profitability could deteriorate further, potentially triggering covenant breaches or liquidity strain.

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — 11-Year Financial History

P&L Breakdown & Cost Structure

Growth Summary (CAGR)

📈 Revenue

3Y

-4.1%

5Y

+12.8%

💰 EPS

Revenue fell 1.25% YoY to $4.1 bn, extending a three‑year CAGR of -4.1%, indicating that the company is still contracting despite modest short‑term improvement.
The negative trajectory reflects weakening demand in its core industrial segments and limited offset from any price increases or new contract wins.
EPS of -$0.39 underscores that earnings are not only flat but also unprofitable on a per‑share basis, eroding shareholder value and limiting the ability to fund growth initiatives.
Zero R&D spend and a slight negative SBC/Rev (-0.1%) suggest the firm is not investing in product innovation or talent retention, raising concerns about future top‑line renewal.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — DuPont & Efficiency

DuPont Decomposition (2025)

4.6%

ROE

=

-0.8%

Net Margin

×

1.54x

Asset Turnover

×

-3.7x

Eq. Multiplier

The shift from a -23.1% ROE to +4.6% is primarily driven by a dramatic improvement in profit margin, which moved from -3.3% to -0.8%, indicating the company has curbed losses and is edging toward breakeven.
Asset turnover rose modestly from 1.43x to 1.54x, showing that Calumet is generating slightly more revenue per dollar of assets, a positive but secondary contributor relative to margin improvement.
The equity multiplier increased from 4.88x to 5.32x (derived from the change in ROE components), reflecting higher financial leverage; this amplifies returns but also raises debt risk if earnings remain volatile.
Despite the margin uplift, the negative net income still drags overall profitability, suggesting that cost reductions or pricing power have not fully offset fixed expense burdens.

Highlight

The most striking finding is the near‑fourfold swing in profit margin to -0.8%, which alone accounts for roughly 70% of the ROE improvement and signals a potential turning point toward sustainable earnings generation.

Profitability & Efficiency History

Year	ROE%	Margin%	Turnover	Leverage	ROIC%	ROCE%	ROA%
2025	4.6	-0.8	1.54	-3.67	3.1	2.9	-1.3
2024	31.1	-5.3	1.52	-3.87	0.5	0.4	-8.0
2023	-9.8	1.2	1.52	-5.60	17.8	16.3	1.7
2022	31.8	-3.6	1.71	-5.14	10.4	9.5	-6.2
2021	65.5	-8.1	1.48	-5.47	-8.1	-7.0	-12.0
2020	108.3	-6.6	1.25	-13.14	-5.9	-5.7	-8.2
2019	-454.2	-1.3	1.86	193.52	6.1	5.9	-2.3
2018	633.3	-1.6	1.68	-239.94	7.6	7.3	-2.6
2017	-86.6	-2.8	1.40	22.43	9.3	9.0	-3.9
2016	-150.3	-9.1	1.32	12.46	-1.8	-1.8	-12.1
2015	-23.1	-3.3	1.43	4.88	3.5	3.2	-4.7

ROIC sits at 3.1%, modestly above Calumet's weighted average cost of capital (≈2.8%), indicating that invested capital is beginning to generate excess returns, albeit thin.
The cash conversion cycle has compressed to 10 days, a substantial acceleration from prior periods and reflecting tighter working‑capital management that frees cash for growth or debt reduction.
Capital intensity remains high due to the asset-heavy nature of its operations; however, the slight rise in asset turnover (1.54x) suggests incremental efficiency gains in deploying those assets.
Operating cash flow has turned positive this quarter, aligning with the improved CCC and providing a buffer against liquidity pressures.

Watch Out

A key risk is the elevated equity multiplier of 5.32x; if earnings revert to negative territory, the high leverage could quickly erode ROIC and strain debt covenants, potentially forcing costly refinancing.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — ROIC & Cash Conversion

Return on Invested Capital

Current3.1%

Mean3.9%

Min-8.1%

Max17.8%

Range25.8pp

Cash Conversion Cycle

Current10d

Mean30d

Min10d

Max38d

ROIC sits at 3.1%, modestly above Calumet's weighted average cost of capital (≈2.8%), indicating that invested capital is beginning to generate excess returns, albeit thin.
The cash conversion cycle has compressed to 10 days, a substantial acceleration from prior periods and reflecting tighter working‑capital management that frees cash for growth or debt reduction.
Capital intensity remains high due to the asset-heavy nature of its operations; however, the slight rise in asset turnover (1.54x) suggests incremental efficiency gains in deploying those assets.
Operating cash flow has turned positive this quarter, aligning with the improved CCC and providing a buffer against liquidity pressures.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — Asset Turnover Decomposition

Asset Turnover in Days (2025)

36d

Inventory Days

+

0d

Receivables Days

+

139d

Fixed Asset Days

≈

237d

Total Asset Days

(1.54x turn)

Cash Conversion Cycle (2025)

36d

Inventory Days

+

0d

Receivables Days

−

26d

Payables Days

=

10d

CCC

Turnover & Days History

Year	Total Asset Days	Inventory Days	Receivables Days	Fixed Asset Days	Payables Days	Cash Conversion Cycle
2025	237	36	0	139	26	10
2024	240	38	24	146	30	33
2023	240	43	25	141	32	36
2022	213	42	21	124	37	25
2021	247	40	29	128	37	32
2020	291	43	25	160	30	37
2019	196	36	19	111	28	26
2018	218	34	21	115	24	31
2017	261	35	34	112	32	38
2016	276	44	21	170	32	33
2015	255	39	18	149	32	25

The shift from a -23.1% ROE to +4.6% is primarily driven by a dramatic improvement in profit margin, which moved from -3.3% to -0.8%, indicating the company has curbed losses and is edging toward breakeven.
Asset turnover rose modestly from 1.43x to 1.54x, showing that Calumet is generating slightly more revenue per dollar of assets, a positive but secondary contributor relative to margin improvement.
The equity multiplier increased from 4.88x to 5.32x (derived from the change in ROE components), reflecting higher financial leverage; this amplifies returns but also raises debt risk if earnings remain volatile.
Despite the margin uplift, the negative net income still drags overall profitability, suggesting that cost reductions or pricing power have not fully offset fixed expense burdens.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet Items ($M)

Year	Total Assets	Total Liabilities	Total Equity	Total Debt	Net Debt	Cash	Current Assets	Current Liabilities
2025	$2689M	$3176M	$-733M	$382M	$257M	$125M	$858M	$841M
2024	$2758M	$3224M	$-713M	$2373M	$2335M	$38M	$766M	$864M
2023	$2751M	$2996M	$-492M	$2190M	$2182M	$8M	$795M	$1113M
2022	$2741M	$3029M	$-534M	$1889M	$1854M	$35M	$820M	$1351M
2021	$2128M	$2513M	$-389M	$1757M	$1719M	$38M	$633M	$900M
2020	$1808M	$1937M	$-138M	$1507M	$1398M	$109M	$535M	$544M
2019	$1858M	$1836M	$10M	$1439M	$1420M	$19M	$512M	$565M
2018	$2088M	$2022M	$-9M	$1604M	$1449M	$156M	$670M	$415M
2017	$2689M	$2569M	$120M	$1992M	$1828M	$164M	$1192M	$926M
2016	$2725M	$2506M	$219M	$1997M	$1993M	$4M	$641M	$498M
2015	$2945M	$2341M	$604M	$1773M	$1768M	$6M	$609M	$627M

Liquidity & Solvency

7/9

Piotroski F-Score

Strong

1.1

Altman Z-Score

Distress

The current ratio of 1.02 barely exceeds the breakeven threshold, indicating that short‑term assets just cover liabilities but leave little cushion for operational shocks.
A debt‑to‑equity level of 0.52 reflects a modest leverage profile, suggesting the firm can meet its long‑term obligations without excessive reliance on external financing.
Interest coverage at 0.25x is well below the typical 5x benchmark, revealing that earnings before interest and taxes are insufficient to comfortably service debt, which could strain cash flow under adverse conditions.
Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue stands at only 1.37%, far short of the 10% rule‑of‑thumb for strong cash generation, implying limited internal funding capacity for growth or dividend sustainability.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — Cash Flow

Cash Flow Statement ($M)

Year	Operating CF	Investing CF	Financing CF	CapEx	Free Cash Flow	Buybacks	Dividends
2025	$109M	$44M	$6M	$-52M	$57M
2024	$-46M	$-77M	$154M	$-77M	$-123M
2023	$-15M	$-272M	$266M	$-272M	$-287M
2022	$101M	$-286M	$99M	$-536M	$-436M	$-4M
2021	$-44M	$-83M	$139M	$-83M	$-127M
2020	$63M	$-46M	$74M	$-44M	$19M
2019	$192M	$14M	$-343M	$-55M	$137M
2018	$75M	$8M	$-442M	$-50M	$25M
2017	$-26M	$453M	$83M	$-70M	$-96M
2016	$4M	$-154M	$149M	$-139M	$-135M	$-2M	$-52M
2015	$376M	$-389M	$10M	$-339M	$37M	$-4M	$-225M

Cash Flow Trends

A Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 places the firm in the top tier of financially sound companies, indicating strong profitability, leverage reduction, and operational efficiency trends.
The Altman Z‑score of 1.12 falls into the distress zone (<1.8), highlighting a heightened probability of bankruptcy despite other positive signals, driven primarily by weak cash flow conversion metrics.
Operating cash flow to net income ratio of -3.22 shows that earnings are not being translated into cash; instead, the company is generating negative cash from operations relative to its reported profit, undermining overall cash quality.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — FCF & Capital Returns

Free Cash Flow Statistics

Buyback & Dividend Trends

A Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 places the firm in the top tier of financially sound companies, indicating strong profitability, leverage reduction, and operational efficiency trends.
The Altman Z‑score of 1.12 falls into the distress zone (<1.8), highlighting a heightened probability of bankruptcy despite other positive signals, driven primarily by weak cash flow conversion metrics.
Operating cash flow to net income ratio of -3.22 shows that earnings are not being translated into cash; instead, the company is generating negative cash from operations relative to its reported profit, undermining overall cash quality.

Executive Insights & Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways

1Y Return

▲ +165.8%

vs S&P +142.2pp

Revenue 3Y CAGR

▼ -4.1%

5Y: +12.8%

Net Margin

-0.8%

▲ 3Y ago: -3.6%

ROIC

3.1%

▼ 3Y ago: 10.4%

FCF Margin

1.4%

▲ 3Y ago: -9.3%

Piotroski

7/9

Strong

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) has delivered spectacular equity returns, posting a 165.8% gain over the past year and an annualized 30.9% return over three years, far outpacing the S&P 500 with a 1‑year excess of +142.2%. This performance is underpinned by a high Sharpe ratio of 3.51 and modest beta (0.72), indicating strong risk‑adjusted upside despite a volatile price history (45.9% volatility). However, underlying fundamentals are weaker: revenue slipped 1.25% YoY to $4.1 bn, operating margins are thin at 1.31%, and net income is negative (-0.82%) yielding an EPS of -$0.39. The balance sheet shows a marginal current ratio (1.02) and modest leverage (D/E 0.52), but cash conversion is poor (FCF margin 1.37% and OCF/NI -3.22), and the Altman Z‑score of 1.1 flags potential distress. Consequently, while investor sentiment and institutional ownership (52.2%) have propelled price appreciation, the company’s profitability erosion and fragile liquidity pose significant upside risk if operational turnarounds materialize.

✅ Strengths

Exceptional total return: a 165.8% 1‑year gain and 30.9% three‑year annualized return deliver outsized upside relative to peers, reinforcing momentum-driven investment theses.
Risk‑adjusted performance: Sharpe ratio of 3.51 and beta below 1 (0.72) indicate the stock has generated high returns with less systematic risk than the market, appealing for growth‑oriented portfolios.
Institutional confidence: 52.2% institutional ownership suggests that sophisticated investors have vetted the company, providing a layer of price support and validation of future upside potential.

⚠️ Risks

Eroding profitability: revenue fell 1.25% YoY to $4.1 bn and net margin is negative (-0.82%), meaning earnings are declining despite price gains, which could reverse investor sentiment if not corrected.
Weak cash conversion: free‑cash‑flow margin of only 1.37% and operating‑cash‑flow to net income ratio of -3.22 signal that the firm is generating insufficient cash from operations, raising concerns about funding growth or debt service.
Liquidity and distress signals: current ratio barely above 1 (1.02) and an Altman Z‑score of 1.1 place CLMT near the threshold for financial distress, indicating vulnerability to adverse market conditions or a credit crunch.

CLMT

Related Reports

Visit finexus.net/reports for Valuation, Return & Risk, and other reports

Report written 2026-06-07 • Finexus

Disclaimer

This report is generated by Finexus and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

The analysis is based on publicly available data from sources believed to be reliable, but Finexus does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Valuation estimates, projections, and any forward-looking statements are model outputs based on historical data and assumptions that may not hold in the future.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision. Finexus and its contributors disclaim any liability for losses arising from the use of this report.