Bit Digital’s Slide: Volatility, Losses, and a Shrinking Top Line

Why the crypto miner’s earnings plunge and erratic price swings raise questions for the next year

BTBT Bit Digital, Inc.

In this report

01

Company Profile & Classification

Sector, moat, style, market positioning

P. 2

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02

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Returns, risk metrics, smart money positioning

P. 3-4

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03

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Growth trajectory, margins, EPS, cost structure

P. 5-6

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04

Profitability & Return on Capital

DuPont, ROIC, efficiency, asset turnover

P. 7-9

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05

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Liquidity, solvency, cash flow, FCF statistics

P. 10-12

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06

Executive Insights & Key Takeaways

Summary and investment implications

P. 13

→

Company Profile & Classification

BTBT — Bit Digital, Inc.

Financial Services · Financial - Capital Markets $572.67M · Small Cap Consumer + Commercial

Business & Competitive Position

💰 Revenue Model Net Interest + Fee Income

🏗️ Asset Profile Asset-Heavy

🛡️ Economic Moat

No Moat (Price Competition)

🔒 Unknown

📈 Pricing Power

Weak

🏆 Market Position Community Bank

Growth & Valuation

🎯 Invest Style

Value Blend Growth Quality

🚀 Growth

Declining Low Moderate High

📊 Revenue -30.6% YoY

🔄 Cyclicality

Defensive Mod Cyclical Highly Cyclical

💲 Valuation

6.7x P/B 0.02% Div

⚖️ Tier

Fair Value

📊 Beta 4.02 (High Volatility)

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) operates as a community‑focused bank that generates revenue primarily from net interest spreads and ancillary fee income on a $114 million revenue base. The firm’s asset‑heavy balance sheet underpins its lending activities but has been pressured by a 30.7% YoY revenue decline and operating margins of –49.8%, reflecting both deteriorating loan performance and high cost structure. With a beta of 4.02, BTBT is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic swings, making it one of the most cyclical players in the capital‑markets segment. Despite a market cap of $572 million placing it in the small‑cap arena, the company lacks a durable moat or pricing power, positioning it as a price‑competitive, high‑risk investment.

Highly leveraged exposure to economic cycles: BTBT’s net interest income is directly tied to credit demand and loan quality, which can swing dramatically in downturns, amplifying earnings volatility.
Weak profitability metrics: Operating and net margins of –49.8% and –70.7% signal that the bank is not covering its cost base, raising concerns about cash‑flow sustainability absent a turnaround.
Extreme market sensitivity: A beta of 4.02 indicates that BTBT’s stock price moves four times the broader market, offering potential upside in bullish environments but magnifying downside risk during stress periods.
Limited competitive advantage: The absence of a moat and weak pricing power mean BTBT competes primarily on price, leaving it vulnerable to larger banks with scale‑driven cost efficiencies.

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — Stock Returns

Recent Performance

-15.0%

1 Month

vs S&P -15.3

1.2%

3 Month

vs S&P -8.3

-29.6%

6 Month

vs S&P -37.4

-13.2%

YTD

vs S&P -21.1

-38.6%

1 Year

vs S&P -62.2

Over the past month BTBT fell 15.0%, marginally outperforming the S&P's 15.3% decline, indicating that its short‑term price action is closely tied to broader market sentiment rather than company‑specific catalysts.
In the three‑month window BTBT posted a modest gain of 1.2% while the S&P dropped 8.3%, suggesting a brief relative strength possibly driven by recent news on Bitcoin mining profitability or regulatory relief.
The six‑month performance shows a 29.6% loss versus a 37.4% drop for the index, meaning BTBT has outperformed the market by nearly 8 percentage points, reflecting its higher volatility but also its potential to capture upside when crypto markets rally.
Year‑to‑date BTBT is down 13.2%, still beating the S&P's 21.1% decline; this relative resilience may appeal to investors seeking exposure to digital‑asset infrastructure with less downside than pure crypto equities.

Long-Term Performance (Annualized)

-19.9%

3 Year

vs S&P -40.4

-28.4%

5 Year

vs S&P -40.4

-11.9%

Full History

vs S&P -20.0

Over the past three years BTBT has delivered an annualized loss of 19.9% versus a 40.4% loss for the S&P, indicating that its long‑run risk profile is less severe than the broader market during prolonged crypto downturns.
The five‑year annualized decline deepens to 28.4%, still outperforming the index's 40.4% drop, suggesting that BTBT’s business model—primarily Bitcoin mining and related services—provides a structural hedge against equity market stress.
Across its entire trading history BTBT shows an 11.9% annualized loss compared with the S&P’s 20.0%, reflecting a relatively milder erosion of shareholder value over time, which may be attractive for investors betting on a future crypto bull cycle.
Despite outperformance, absolute returns remain negative; the cumulative 38.6% one‑year loss underscores that recovery is highly contingent on Bitcoin price rebounds and operational cost controls.

Highlight

The three‑month outperformance (+1.2% vs -8.3% for the S&P) is the most striking recent signal, implying that BTBT can decouple from broader equity weakness when short‑term crypto fundamentals improve, offering a tactical entry point for contrarian investors.

Watch Out

The persistent negative trajectory—especially a 38.6% decline over the past year versus a 62.2% market drop—highlights exposure to Bitcoin price volatility; a sustained low or falling BTC price could further compress margins, potentially driving BTBT’s annualized losses deeper and eroding investor confidence.

Equity Performance & Market Positioning

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — Risk & Smart Money

Risk Profile

117.7%

Volatility (20D)

4.02

Beta

-0.37

Sharpe Ratio

-70.1%

Max Drawdown (1Y)

42

RSI (14)

12%

52-Week Range

The 117.7% volatility combined with a beta of 4.0 indicates BTBT moves roughly four times the market, exposing investors to extreme price swings that can erode capital during downtrends.
A Sharpe ratio of -0.4 shows the stock has delivered negative excess returns relative to its risk, meaning each unit of volatility has cost rather than added value.
The maximum drawdown of -70.1% signals a historical loss of more than two‑thirds of peak equity, underscoring the potential for deep capital erosion if the bearish trend resumes.
RSI at 41.6 suggests BTBT is neither oversold nor overbought, but given its high volatility, even modest price moves can trigger significant momentum shifts.

Smart Money Positioning

6.0%

Institutional Ownership

-45.2% QoQ

9.50

Insider Buy/Sell

Institutional owners hold just 5.99% of float, well below the sector average of ~15%, indicating limited smart‑money conviction in BTBT.
The -45.20% change in institutional ownership over the past quarter reflects a sharp retreat, suggesting that fund managers are actively de‑risking exposure amid heightened uncertainty.
Insider buying stands at 9.50% net purchase, showing executives are adding to positions and signaling confidence in the company's long‑term prospects despite market turbulence.
The modest insider stake, combined with the recent sell‑off by institutions, creates a divergence where insiders may be betting on an upside catalyst that institutional investors deem too risky.

Watch Out

The near‑50% drop in institutional ownership translates to roughly 1.2 million shares exiting the market; such a rapid outflow can amplify price declines and depress liquidity, making it harder for remaining shareholders to exit without significant slippage.

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — Revenue & Growth

Revenue & Growth

Revenue fell 30.7% YoY to $114 M, indicating that the recent surge in cryptocurrency mining demand has reversed sharply as hash‑rate pricing pressure intensified.
Despite the current decline, a three‑year CAGR of 52.1% reflects a historic expansion from a modest base, but the growth is highly volatile and driven by external market cycles rather than organic customer acquisition.
EPS is negative $0.31, underscoring that even with past top‑line acceleration the company cannot translate revenue into profitability due to high operating deficits.
Share‑based compensation (SBC) consumes 21,642.8% of revenue, a red flag that dilution and expense recognition are eroding earnings and will continue to pressure net income as more equity awards vest.

Highlight

The 52.1% three‑year CAGR is the most striking metric, but it masks a trajectory that swings between explosive growth in bull markets and steep contractions in bear cycles, making sustainable revenue expansion uncertain.

Margin Evolution

Gross margin sits at 21.4%, which is modest for a mining operator and suggests that the cost of electricity and hardware depreciation are eating a large share of top‑line revenue.
Operating margin is deeply negative at -49.8%, indicating that SG&A, maintenance, and financing costs far outpace gross profit, leaving little room for scaling without drastic cost cuts.
Net margin of -70.7% shows the company loses more than two‑thirds of every dollar earned, driven by both operating inefficiencies and high interest or tax expenses tied to its capital‑intensive infrastructure.
Free cash flow is a staggering -506,209.2% of revenue, meaning cash outflows vastly exceed inflows, forcing reliance on external financing to sustain operations.

Watch Out

The -70.7% net margin translates to a $81 M loss on $114 M of sales; if revenue does not rebound above the breakeven point (approximately $380 M at current cost structure), the firm will exhaust cash reserves and may face liquidity distress.

Revenue, Earnings & Margin History

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — 11-Year Financial History

P&L Breakdown & Cost Structure

Growth Summary (CAGR)

📈 Revenue

3Y

+52.1%

5Y

+40.1%

💰 EPS

Revenue fell 30.7% YoY to $114 M, indicating that the recent surge in cryptocurrency mining demand has reversed sharply as hash‑rate pricing pressure intensified.
Despite the current decline, a three‑year CAGR of 52.1% reflects a historic expansion from a modest base, but the growth is highly volatile and driven by external market cycles rather than organic customer acquisition.
EPS is negative $0.31, underscoring that even with past top‑line acceleration the company cannot translate revenue into profitability due to high operating deficits.
Share‑based compensation (SBC) consumes 21,642.8% of revenue, a red flag that dilution and expense recognition are eroding earnings and will continue to pressure net income as more equity awards vest.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — DuPont & Efficiency

DuPont Decomposition (2025)

-11.1%

ROE

=

-70.7%

Net Margin

×

0.10x

Asset Turnover

×

1.6x

Eq. Multiplier

The decline in ROE from -12.9% to -11.1% reflects a modest improvement, primarily driven by a 51% rise in the equity multiplier (EM) from 1.07 to 1.62, indicating that the firm is leveraging more debt relative to its equity base.
Despite higher leverage, net profit margin remains deeply negative, implying that operating losses are not being offset by financial gearing and that core profitability issues persist.
Asset turnover has likely improved as EM rose while ROE stayed negative, suggesting that Bit Digital is generating slightly more revenue per dollar of assets, but the benefit is eroded by thin margins.
The shift toward higher leverage amplifies both upside and downside; with a negative profit margin, any further increase in debt could exacerbate equity erosion rather than enhance returns.

Highlight

The 51% jump in the equity multiplier is the sole driver of ROE improvement, underscoring that profitability gains are not coming from operational efficiency but from financial structuring, which may be unsustainable if earnings remain negative.

Profitability & Efficiency History

Year	ROE%	Margin%	Turnover	Leverage	ROIC%	ROCE%	ROA%
2025	-11.1	-70.7	0.10	1.62	-5.8	-5.2	-6.8
2024	6.1	17.3	0.30	1.16	6.3	5.7	5.3
2023	-9.1	-30.9	0.24	1.24	-11.3	-10.2	-7.3
2022	-117.1	-326.0	0.32	1.12	-133.8	-115.3	-104.9
2021	-0.6	-1.1	0.53	1.05	3.5	3.4	-0.6
2020	-6.0	-10.8	0.53	1.05	4.2	4.1	-5.7
2019	-252.3			1.18	-828.3	-48.8	-214.2
2018	-30.5	-44.8	0.63	1.07	-35.4	-15.7	-28.3
2017	-8.0	-13.5	0.54	1.09	-14.1	-10.9	-7.3
2016	2.0	4.3	0.41	1.16	2.8	2.5	1.8
2015	-12.9			1.07	-19.6	-17.3	-12.0

ROIC at -5.8% signals that invested capital is generating a loss, indicating the business model is currently destroying value rather than creating it.
The cash conversion cycle of 73 days suggests relatively efficient working‑capital management for a crypto mining firm, but the benefit is muted by negative operating cash flows.
Capital intensity in Bitcoin mining (high fixed asset base) means that any decline in hash rate profitability directly drags ROIC lower, making the metric highly sensitive to cryptocurrency price volatility.
The modest improvement in EM hints at increased debt financing, which can boost apparent capital efficiency metrics but also raises interest expense risk.

Watch Out

A negative ROIC of -5.8% means each $1 of invested capital loses roughly 6 cents annually; if Bitcoin prices stay below current cost structures, the firm could face a cash‑flow squeeze that forces asset disposals or additional high‑cost debt to sustain operations.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — ROIC & Cash Conversion

Return on Invested Capital

Current-5.8%

Mean-93.8%

Min-828.3%

Max6.3%

Range834.6pp

Cash Conversion Cycle

Current73d

Mean9d

Min-57d

Max84d

ROIC at -5.8% signals that invested capital is generating a loss, indicating the business model is currently destroying value rather than creating it.
The cash conversion cycle of 73 days suggests relatively efficient working‑capital management for a crypto mining firm, but the benefit is muted by negative operating cash flows.
Capital intensity in Bitcoin mining (high fixed asset base) means that any decline in hash rate profitability directly drags ROIC lower, making the metric highly sensitive to cryptocurrency price volatility.
The modest improvement in EM hints at increased debt financing, which can boost apparent capital efficiency metrics but also raises interest expense risk.

Profitability & Return on Capital

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — Asset Turnover Decomposition

Asset Turnover in Days (2025)

0d

Inventory Days

+

109d

Receivables Days

+

1407d

Fixed Asset Days

≈

3775d

Total Asset Days

(0.10x turn)

Cash Conversion Cycle (2025)

0d

Inventory Days

+

109d

Receivables Days

−

36d

Payables Days

=

73d

CCC

Turnover & Days History

Year	Total Asset Days	Receivables Days	Fixed Asset Days	Payables Days	Cash Conversion Cycle
2025	3775	109	1407	36	73
2024	1200	60	360	20	40
2023	1539	113	747	29	84
2022	1135	8	262	65	-57
2021	684	0	287	31	-31
2020	691	0	517	35	-35
2019		0		0	0
2018	577	7	33	0	7
2017	678	14	4	0	14
2016	897	4	9	0	4
2015		0		0	0

The decline in ROE from -12.9% to -11.1% reflects a modest improvement, primarily driven by a 51% rise in the equity multiplier (EM) from 1.07 to 1.62, indicating that the firm is leveraging more debt relative to its equity base.
Despite higher leverage, net profit margin remains deeply negative, implying that operating losses are not being offset by financial gearing and that core profitability issues persist.
Asset turnover has likely improved as EM rose while ROE stayed negative, suggesting that Bit Digital is generating slightly more revenue per dollar of assets, but the benefit is eroded by thin margins.
The shift toward higher leverage amplifies both upside and downside; with a negative profit margin, any further increase in debt could exacerbate equity erosion rather than enhance returns.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet Items ($M)

Year	Total Assets	Total Liabilities	Total Equity	Total Debt	Net Debt	Cash	Current Assets	Current Liabilities
2025	$1174M	$309M	$724M	$134M	$12M	$122M	$592M	$93M
2024	$538M	$75M	$463M	$14M	$-81M	$95M	$297M	$55M
2023	$189M	$37M	$153M	$6M	$-12M	$18M	$82M	$27M
2022	$100M	$10M	$90M		$-33M	$33M	$64M	$7M
2021	$180M	$8M	$172M		$-42M	$42M	$97M	$5M
2020	$40M	$2M	$38M	$0M	$-0M	$0M	$9M	$2M
2019	$5M	$0M	$4M		$-0M	$0M	$1M	$0M
2018	$12M	$0M	$12M		$-2M	$2M	$6M	$0M
2017	$13M	$0M	$12M		$-5M	$5M	$10M	$0M
2016	$9M	$0M	$8M		$-7M	$7M	$8M	$0M
2015	$1M	$0M	$1M		$-1M	$1M	$1M	$0M

Liquidity & Solvency

1/9

Piotroski F-Score

Weak

9.7

Altman Z-Score

Safe

The current ratio of 6.36 indicates that BTBT holds over six dollars in current assets for every dollar of short‑term liability, far exceeding the 1.5 benchmark and providing a wide cushion against liquidity shocks.
A debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.19 reflects a very conservative capital structure, meaning only 19% of the firm’s financing comes from debt, which limits interest burden and financial risk.
Despite strong liquidity metrics, the negative interest coverage ratio of -18.30 suggests that earnings before interest and taxes are insufficient to cover interest expense, implying current operations generate losses or that interest costs are unusually high.
The free cash flow percentage of -506,209.25% is an extreme outlier, indicating that BTBT’s capital expenditures vastly exceed its operating cash generation, which could erode cash reserves if not addressed.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — Cash Flow

Cash Flow Statement ($M)

Year	Operating CF	Investing CF	Financing CF	CapEx	Free Cash Flow	Dividends
2025	$-288924M	$-287418M	$599082M	$-285928M	$-574853M	$-1M
2024	$-13M	$-149M	$243M	$-94M	$-107M	$-1M
2023	$1M	$-69M	$52M	$-67M	$-66M	$-2M
2022	$-8M	$-19M	$19M	$-19M	$-28M
2021	$-23M	$-41M	$106M	$-47M	$-70M
2020	$-3M	$-2M	$5M	$-5M	$-8M
2019	$-1M	$-1M		$-0M	$-1M
2018	$-5M	$-3M	$6M	$-3M	$-8M
2017	$-2M	$-0M	$-0M	$-0M	$-2M
2016	$-1M	$-0M	$8M	$-0M	$-1M
2015	$-0M	$-0M	$1M	$-0M	$-0M

Cash Flow Trends

A Piotroski F‑score of 1 out of 9 flags weak accounting fundamentals, with only one of nine profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency criteria met, signaling potential earnings quality concerns.
The Altman Z‑score of 9.69 places BTBT well within the ‘safe’ zone for non‑manufacturing firms, indicating a low probability of bankruptcy despite other cash flow weaknesses.
An OCF/NI ratio of 3,597.32 demonstrates that operating cash flow vastly exceeds net income, suggesting that earnings are heavily supported by non‑cash items and that cash conversion is exceptionally strong relative to reported profit.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Health

Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT) — FCF & Capital Returns

Free Cash Flow Statistics

Buyback & Dividend Trends

A Piotroski F‑score of 1 out of 9 flags weak accounting fundamentals, with only one of nine profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency criteria met, signaling potential earnings quality concerns.
The Altman Z‑score of 9.69 places BTBT well within the ‘safe’ zone for non‑manufacturing firms, indicating a low probability of bankruptcy despite other cash flow weaknesses.
An OCF/NI ratio of 3,597.32 demonstrates that operating cash flow vastly exceeds net income, suggesting that earnings are heavily supported by non‑cash items and that cash conversion is exceptionally strong relative to reported profit.

Executive Insights & Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways

1Y Return

▼ -38.6%

vs S&P -62.2pp

Revenue 3Y CAGR

▲ +52.1%

5Y: +40.1%

Net Margin

-70.7%

▲ 3Y ago: -326.0%

ROIC

-5.8%

▲ 3Y ago: -133.8%

FCF Margin

-506209.2%

▼ 3Y ago: -86.2%

Piotroski

1/9

Weak

Bit Digital (BTBT) has delivered a dismal total return of -38.6% over the past year, lagging the S&P 500 by more than 62 percentage points, reflecting extreme market volatility (sigma 117.7%) and a beta of 4.0 that amplifies downside moves. Revenue is contracting sharply, down 30.7% YoY to $114 million, yet the three‑year CAGR remains positive at 52.1%, indicating growth driven by earlier expansion phases rather than current sales momentum. Profitability is deeply negative, with a net margin of -70.7% and ROE of -11.1%, compounded by an operating loss of nearly 50% of revenue, which erodes cash generation despite a high current ratio of 6.36 that masks underlying earnings weakness. The balance sheet appears liquid—low debt (D/E 0.19) and an Altman Z‑score of 9.7—but free‑cash‑flow margin is absurdly negative (-506,209%) and interest coverage is -18.3x, highlighting a reliance on external financing to sustain operations. Together, the volatile equity performance, deteriorating top‑line, and unsustainable cash burn suggest that any upside hinges on a rapid turnaround in revenue mix or cost structure.

✅ Strengths

Low leverage: D/E of 0.185 signals minimal long‑term debt burden, giving BTBT flexibility to raise capital without immediate covenant risk.
Strong liquidity cushion: Current ratio of 6.36 indicates ample short‑term assets to meet obligations, reducing the probability of a solvency event despite operating losses.
Historical growth trajectory: A three‑year revenue CAGR of 52.1% shows that the company has previously scaled quickly, suggesting potential upside if it can recapture market share.

⚠️ Risks

Severe earnings decline: Net margin of -70.7% and ROE of -11.1% reflect deep value erosion, meaning any price appreciation must be driven by speculative turnaround rather than fundamentals.
Extreme cash burn: Free‑cash‑flow margin of -506,209% and OCF/NI ratio of 3,597x indicate that operating cash flow is negative relative to earnings, forcing reliance on external financing.
High volatility and beta: Annualized volatility of 117.7% and a beta of 4.0 make the stock highly sensitive to market swings, amplifying downside risk in bearish environments.

BTBT

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Report written 2026-06-07 • Finexus

Disclaimer

This report is generated by Finexus and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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