How to read this section: We test whether three price-based signals —
12-month momentum (trailing stock return), realized volatility (annualized standard deviation of daily returns), and
relative strength (stock return minus S&P 500 return) — predict next-quarter fundamental outcomes:
revenue growth, operating margin change, and ROE change (all year-over-year to remove seasonality).
Each cell shows the Pearson correlation (r) between signal at quarter Q and outcome at quarter Q+1.
Values closer to +1 or −1 indicate stronger predictive relationships. “n” is the number of quarterly observations.
The analysis of Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) over the 45‑quarter sample from 2015Q1 to 2026Q1 reveals that price‑based momentum signals exhibit the strongest predictive power for fundamental outcomes. Both the 12‑month price momentum and the Relative Strength index show robust correlations with revenue growth (r=0.70, p<0.001 and r=0.69, p<0.001 respectively, n=41), indicating that upward price trends tend to precede periods of accelerated top‑line expansion. By contrast, realized volatility does not meaningfully forecast any of the examined fundamentals, with correlation coefficients near zero and insignificant p‑values. Signals related to profitability metrics—margin change and ROE change—are only weakly linked to price dynamics, suggesting that Calumet’s earnings quality is less reflected in short‑term market movements.
12‑month momentum correlates strongly with CLMT revenue growth (r=0.70, p<0.001, n=41).
Relative Strength also shows a strong link to revenue growth (r=0.69, p<0.001, n=41).
Realized volatility does not predict revenue growth, margin change, or ROE change (|r|≤0.19, all p>0.23).
Momentum and Relative Strength have weak correlations with margin and ROE changes (|r|≤0.27, p>0.08), indicating limited predictive power for profitability metrics.
Limitations: The sample size of 41 observations per signal is modest, increasing the risk that observed relationships are driven by outliers or specific market regimes. Correlation does not imply causation; price movements may be responding to contemporaneous news rather than truly leading fundamental shifts. The analysis covers a single company and sector, so findings may not generalize to firms with different business models or macro‑economic exposures.
CLMT
For CLMT, the 12‑month momentum signal emerges as a strong leading indicator of revenue growth (r=0.699, p=0.000, n=41), likely because sustained price appreciation captures investor expectations about expanding sales pipelines and successful commodity pricing strategies in the mining sector. The Relative Strength measure mirrors this relationship (r=0.685, p=0.000, n=41), reinforcing that broader market outperformance aligns with higher revenue trajectories. However, both momentum and relative strength display only weak associations with margin change (r≈0.15) and ROE change (r≈0.24–0.27), reflecting that cost structures and capital efficiency evolve on a slower or more opaque timeline than price trends convey. Realized volatility fails to predict any fundamental outcome, underscoring its limited relevance for forecasting operational performance in this commodity‑driven business.