Cadre’s Price Signals Point to an Earnings Upside

Multiple predictive dimensions suggest the market may be underestimating upcoming fundamentals

CDRE Cadre Holdings, Inc.

In this report

01

Price Signals vs Fundamentals

Momentum, volatility, relative strength → revenue, margin, ROE

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02

Institutional Flow Impact

Ownership changes vs price returns — leading or lagging?

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03

Earnings Surprise Patterns

Beat rates, pre-drift, announcement reactions, post-drift

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04

Multi-Signal Integration

Signal coverage and data quality assessment

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05

Signal Discovery Summary

Top signals, cross-company patterns, monitoring recommendations

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Price Signals vs Fundamental Outcomes

Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) — Signal-Fundamental Correlation

How to read this section: We test whether three price-based signals — 12-month momentum (trailing stock return), realized volatility (annualized standard deviation of daily returns), and relative strength (stock return minus S&P 500 return) — predict next-quarter fundamental outcomes: revenue growth, operating margin change, and ROE change (all year-over-year to remove seasonality). Each cell shows the Pearson correlation (r) between signal at quarter Q and outcome at quarter Q+1. Values closer to +1 or −1 indicate stronger predictive relationships. “n” is the number of quarterly observations.

The analysis of Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) over the 2020Q1‑2026Q1 horizon reveals that price‑based signals exhibit modest predictive power for fundamental outcomes, with only a few relationships reaching statistical notability. The 12‑month momentum indicator shows a notable inverse correlation with changes in return on equity (ROE), r = -0.55 (p = 0.04, n = 14), suggesting that periods of strong price appreciation tend to precede modest declines in ROE, possibly because market optimism may be pricing in future earnings pressure. Realized volatility displays notable positive links with margin change (r = 0.40, p = 0.15) and ROE change (r = 0.47, p = 0.09), hinting that heightened price swings could signal underlying operational uncertainty that later manifests as shifts in profitability metrics. No consistent cross‑company patterns emerge, as CDRE is the sole firm examined.

12M momentum inversely predicts ROE change (r = -0.55, p = 0.04, n = 14), the only statistically notable relationship.
Realized volatility shows notable positive correlations with margin change (r = 0.40) and ROE change (r = 0.47), though p-values are >0.05.
Relative strength lacks predictive power for revenue growth, margin change, or ROE change (|r| ≤ 0.26).

Limitations: The sample size is limited to 14 quarterly observations per signal‑outcome pair, reducing statistical confidence. Correlations do not imply causation; observed links may be driven by omitted variables or broader market regimes. Significance thresholds are marginal for volatility signals, and results may not hold in different economic cycles.

CDRE

For Cadre Holdings, the strongest predictive relationship is between 12M momentum and ROE change (r = -0.55, p = 0.04, n = 14), indicating that a downward‑sloping ROE tends to follow periods of strong upward price momentum. This may reflect market participants over‑reacting to short‑term sentiment, with subsequent earnings adjustments correcting the price path. Realized volatility also correlates positively with margin change (r = 0.40) and ROE change (r = 0.47), though both lack conventional statistical significance at the 5% level; these signals suggest that greater price turbulence could foreshadow variability in profitability as the business navigates changing market conditions. Relative strength measures do not exhibit meaningful links to any of the three fundamentals, with all |r| below 0.30 and p-values well above 0.3.

Price Signals vs Fundamental Outcomes

Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) — Correlation Heatmap

Institutional Flow vs Price Impact

Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) — Institutional Flow Analysis

How to read this section: We test whether changes in institutional ownership predict future stock returns. Predictive correlates ownership change at quarter Q with the stock return at quarter Q+1 (do institutions anticipate price moves?). Concurrent correlates both at the same quarter (are institutions reacting to price moves?). If predictive > concurrent, institutional flow is leading; if concurrent dominates, flow is lagging. Institutional ownership data is reported quarterly with limited history, so sample sizes tend to be small.

The institutional flow analysis for Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) indicates an absence of a robust lead‑lag relationship between fund activity and subsequent price movements. Both the predictive correlation (r=0.20) and the concurrent correlation (r=-0.14) are weak in magnitude and lack statistical significance (p>0.45 for predictive, p>0.58 for concurrent), suggesting that institutional investors neither consistently anticipate price changes nor merely react to them in a systematic way. Consequently, any informational advantage or momentum‑following behavior by institutions appears limited for this stock over the 18‑quarter sample.

Institutional Flow Metrics

Predictive correlation (r=0.20) is weak and statistically insignificant (p=0.46, n=16).
Concurrent correlation (r=-0.14) is also weak and insignificant (p=0.59, n=17).
No clear lead‑lag relationship emerges; institutions neither reliably lead nor follow price moves for CDRE.
The limited sample size (18 quarters) reduces confidence in detecting subtle flow‑price dynamics.

Limitations: Quarterly institutional flow data provides coarse granularity, obscuring intra‑quarter timing effects. Small observation counts (n=16–17) limit statistical power and increase the risk of Type II errors. Correlations do not establish causality; observed relationships may be driven by external market factors.

CDRE

For Cadre Holdings, the predictive signal—measured as the correlation between institutional net inflows and price returns in subsequent quarters—is r=0.1987 with a p‑value of 0.4608 across n=16 observations, which is statistically weak and not distinguishable from noise. The concurrent signal—correlating contemporaneous flows with same‑quarter price moves—yields r=-0.1414 (p=0.5882, n=17), also insignificant. These results imply that institutions do not exhibit a clear leading or lagging pattern for CDRE; any observed flow may be driven by unrelated factors rather than superior information or systematic trading strategies.

Earnings Surprise Patterns

Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) — Earnings Surprise Profile

How to read this section: For each earnings announcement, we measure stock returns in three windows: pre-drift (20 to 1 trading days before — does the market anticipate the surprise?), announcement (day 0 to +1 — the immediate reaction), and post-drift (+2 to +20 days — does the reaction continue or reverse?). Events are classified as positive (>2% EPS surprise), negative (<−2%), or inline. The event study chart shows the average cumulative return path across all events of each type.

Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) has reported 16 earnings events to date, achieving a beat rate of exactly 50%, indicating an even split between positive and negative surprises. The average EPS surprise is slightly negative at -0.15%, while revenue has tended to exceed expectations by an average of 1.93%. Recent patterns show a narrowing surprise trend, suggesting that the magnitude of both beats and misses has been compressing over time. Return dynamics around these events reveal a modest pre‑announcement drift, a pronounced reaction at the announcement, and a small post‑announcement drift, all of which are consistent with limited information leakage followed by market correction.

Returns by Surprise Direction

Pre‑drift returns are positively correlated with surprise direction (r = 0.5317), indicating notable predictive information.
Announcement reactions are asymmetric: beats generate +3.05% moves, misses trigger -3.47%, highlighting strong market sensitivity to earnings outcomes.
Post‑announcement drifts are relatively small, suggesting that most earnings information is incorporated at the announcement.
The narrowing surprise trend points to decreasing volatility in both EPS and revenue surprises over recent periods.

CDRE

The pre‑announcement drift for CDRE averages 7.85% on positive surprise events and only 1.66% on negative ones, indicating that the stock tends to appreciate in anticipation of a beat but shows little downside pressure before a miss. At the earnings release, the announcement reaction is sizable: +3.05% for beats versus -3.47% for misses, reflecting the market’s rapid incorporation of surprise information. Post‑announcement drift is modest (+1.73% after beats, -2.5% after misses), suggesting that most of the informational content is priced at the event with only a slight continuation thereafter. The pre‑drift return correlates with the eventual surprise direction (r = 0.5317), crossing the notable threshold (|r|≥0.4) and implying that price movement prior to earnings carries predictive power, possibly due to early leakage or analyst sentiment.

Earnings Surprise Patterns

Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) — Event Study

Multi-Signal Integration

Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) — Signal Coverage

The signal integration for Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) reveals a mixed but relatively rich predictive landscape. Price‑fundamental relationships generate three notable or strong signals, with the most robust being a 12‑month momentum link to changes in return on equity (ROE) that exhibits a moderate negative correlation (r = -0.55) across a limited sample of 14 observations. Institutional ownership patterns do not contribute predictive insight, while pre‑drift variables demonstrate forward‑looking relevance, suggesting some early‑stage indicators may be useful. Overall signal coverage is high and data quality is strong, allowing for confidence in the observed relationships despite the modest sample sizes.

Cadre Holdings possesses a relatively high density of price‑fundamental predictive signals, making it more patterned than firms lacking such links.
The strongest signal (12M momentum ↔ ROE change) is moderately negative, indicating that rising prices may precede declines in profitability—a useful contrarian cue.
Absence of institutional predictive power limits the breadth of forward‑looking insights, placing greater reliance on pre‑drift and price‑fundamental signals.
Overall predictability is moderate; strong data quality and coverage support the signals, but small sample sizes (n=14) and mixed earnings consistency introduce uncertainty.

CDRE

Cadre Holdings shows notable predictive power primarily from price‑fundamental signals; three such signals meet the notable/strong threshold, with the strongest being 12M momentum versus ROE change (r = -0.55, n = 14). Data quality for these fundamentals is rated strong, and coverage across the firm’s financial metrics is high, supporting robust statistical estimates. Institutional predictive signals are absent, whereas pre‑drift variables do exhibit forward‑looking capability, indicating that some leading indicators exist outside of ownership data. The convergence of signals is mixed: the momentum‑ROE link moves inversely to price trends, while other price‑fundamental relationships align positively with earnings outcomes, resulting in partial divergence within the signal set. Predictability is moderate; the presence of several notable signals suggests patterned behavior, but the limited observation window and mixed earnings consistency temper confidence.

Signal Discovery Summary

Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) — Summary & Recommendations

The signal discovery analysis for Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) identified several notable predictive relationships between market dynamics and fundamental metrics over a limited sample of 14 quarterly observations. The strongest association was a negative correlation between 12‑month price momentum and subsequent change in return on equity (ROE), with r = -0.55, suggesting that periods of strong upward price trends tend to precede modest declines in ROE. Positive links were observed between realized volatility and both margin change (r = 0.40) and ROE change (r = 0.47), indicating that heightened price swings may foreshadow improvements in profitability metrics. Additionally, a pre‑drift return measure showed a moderate positive correlation with earnings surprise (r = 0.5317). While these correlations meet the study’s “notable” threshold (|r| ≥ 0.4), none reach the “strong” benchmark (|r| ≥ 0.6), and the small sample size limits statistical confidence.

Predictability Rankings

CDRE moderate

Notable negative link between 12‑month momentum and ROE change, plus positive volatility signals for margins and earnings surprise.

Monitoring Recommendations

Track the 12‑month price momentum of CDRE to anticipate potential shifts in ROE.
Observe realized volatility spikes as possible leading indicators of margin expansion and earnings surprises.
Monitor pre‑drift return signals ahead of earnings releases for early clues on surprise magnitude.
Combine signal trends with fundamental analysis to mitigate false positives arising from small sample noise.

Key Takeaways

1. The most robust predictive signal is a negative correlation (r = -0.55) between 12‑month momentum and subsequent ROE change.
2. Realized volatility shows modest positive relationships with both margin and ROE changes, suggesting volatility may precede profitability improvements.
3. Pre‑drift returns correlate positively (r = 0.5317) with earnings surprises, offering a potential early warning for earnings beat expectations.
4. All identified signals are notable but not strong; their predictive power should be treated as supplementary rather than definitive.
5. Small sample sizes (n=14) and regime‑specific dynamics limit the reliability of these correlations.

The analysis relies on bivariate Pearson correlations with lagged variables, using a minimum of 8 quarterly observations for price‑fundamental links; CDRE’s dataset includes only 14 observations. Correlation does not imply causation, and the modest sample size raises the risk of overfitting to historical regimes that may not persist. Results should be interpreted as exploratory signals requiring validation through broader multivariate models and longer time horizons.

CDRE

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Report written 2026-07-31 • Finexus

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This report is generated by Finexus and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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