ManpowerGroup Inc. exhibits a markedly weak profitability profile, with all three core margins lagging at the bottom of their 10-year historical distributions. Gross margin has slipped to 16.7%, marginally below its decade average of 16.8% and now sits in the 43rd percentile, reflecting three consecutive years of decline (YoY -0.6%). More concerning, operating margin has contracted to 1.3%, a full 2.5 percentage points under the 10-year average of 2.8% and positioned at the 0th percentile, indicating that current performance is worse than virtually any observed in the past decade. Net margin is negative at -0.1%, also at the 0th percentile and below the historical average of 1.5%, confirming a transition from modest profitability to loss generation. The confluence of deteriorating gross margins, near‑zero operating leverage, and a net loss underscores structural earnings erosion rather than a temporary cyclical dip.

ManpowerGroup Inc. exhibits leverage metrics that are at the extreme high end of its historical distribution, raising concerns about debt sustainability over the next 12‑18 months. The company's Debt-to-Equity ratio sits at 1.16x, which is at the 100th percentile of its ten‑year range and more than double the 10‑year average of 0.56x, indicating that equity capital has been heavily diluted by borrowing. Similarly, Net Debt to EBITDA stands at 5.5x, also at the 100th percentile and well above the 4.0x threshold commonly flagged as a warning sign; this level is over four times its ten‑year average of 1.2x, suggesting that earnings are insufficient to comfortably cover debt service obligations.

ManpowerGroup Inc. is experiencing a pronounced deterioration in cash generation quality. Operating cash flow has turned negative at -$0.1 billion, marking the fifth consecutive year of decline and placing it at the 0th percentile of its ten‑year historical range, while free cash flow is also negative at -$0.2 billion, indicating that cash outflows exceed operating cash generation. The simultaneous erosion of both operating and free cash flow underscores a fundamental weakness in the business’s ability to fund working capital and investment needs from internal sources. Liquidity metrics further accentuate short‑term concerns. The current ratio has slipped to 1.11×, three years below its ten‑year average of 1.29×, and the quick ratio mirrors this decline, suggesting tighter coverage of current liabilities with liquid assets. Although the cash ratio remains stable at 0.17×—reflecting a modest cash buffer—it is insufficient to offset the broader liquidity strain evident in the other ratios.

ManpowerGroup’s earnings exhibit strong cash backing, as reflected by an operating‑cash‑flow‑to‑net‑income (OCF/NI) ratio of 7.83x—well above its 10‑year average of 5.63x and comfortably exceeding the typical safety threshold of 1.0x. This indicates that each dollar of reported profit is supported by roughly eight dollars of cash, suggesting high earnings quality on the income side. However, the accrual ratio has risen to 0.010, placing it in the 94th percentile of its ten‑year range and flagging a divergence between accounting earnings and cash flow generation; the trend is deteriorating despite a historically negative average, which raises concerns about increasing reliance on non‑cash items. The stock‑based compensation (SBC) burden remains negligible at 0.1% of revenue, consistent with its decade‑long average and showing no material dilution of earnings. Capital intensity appears favorable: CapEx is currently -55% of OCF, meaning the company is generating more cash than it needs for reinvestment, a marked improvement from the 10‑year average positive 6% and reflected in a YoY reduction of 72%. Overall, while cash generation strongly supports earnings, the elevated accrual ratio warrants monitoring.