Finexus Risk Alert Panel
2026-07-31

Four Years of Shrinking Liquidity at Graham Corporation

A steady slide in the current ratio flags mounting short‑term risk
GHM Graham Corporation
In this report
01
Profitability & Margins
Gross, operating, net, EBITDA margin trends and alerts
02
Leverage & Solvency
Debt-to-equity, interest coverage, net debt/EBITDA
03
Cash Flow & Liquidity
Operating/free cash flow, current/quick/cash ratios
04
Earnings Quality
Income quality, accruals, SBC, capital intensity
05
Risk Summary
Alert dashboard, watchlist, investment implications
Profitability & Margin Erosion
Graham Corporation (GHM) — Margin Risk
Graham Corporation exhibits a robust margin profile that stands well above its historical averages and peers. All three profitability metrics—gross, operating, and net margins—are not only higher than the 10‑year averages (21.7%, 1.7% and 1.5% respectively) but also sit in the upper quartile of their long‑term distributions, with percentiles ranging from the 74th to the 78th. Moreover, each margin has shown consistent year‑over‑year improvement—gross margin up 3.3%, operating margin up 3.5%, and net margin up 3.4%—and strong three‑year cumulative gains of 17.8%, 16.5% and 13.0% respectively, indicating an accelerating profitability trend. There are no structural erosion signals; the multi‑year trajectory is clearly upward, suggesting that recent improvements are not merely cyclical rebounds but reflect sustainable operational enhancements. The absence of alerts underscores a clean margin profile, positioning Graham Corporation favorably for continued earnings expansion over the next 12‑18 months.
  • Potential slowdown in margin expansion if input costs rise faster than price adjustments
  • Risk that competitive pressures could erode operating leverage despite current improvements
  • Gross margin improvement of 17.8% over three years indicates strong cost control
  • Operating margin now exceeds the 10‑year average by more than 5 percentage points
  • Net margin growth of 13.0% YoY reflects effective bottom‑line management
GHM clear
Graham Corporation’s margins are expanding across the board, with gross margin now at 25.2%—well above its 10‑year average of 21.7% and improving by 3.3% year‑over‑year. Operating margin has risen to 7.2%, a four‑fold increase over the historical mean, while net margin sits at 5.8%, also markedly higher than the long‑term norm. The consistent upward trend over three years, coupled with high percentile rankings, points to durable cost efficiencies and pricing power rather than temporary market conditions.
Profitability & Margin Erosion
Graham Corporation (GHM) — Margin Trends
Leverage & Solvency
Graham Corporation (GHM) — Leverage Risk
Graham Corporation (GHM) exhibits a very low debt profile, with its current Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.06x matching the ten‑year average and sitting at the 20th percentile of its historical range. The net‑debt to EBITDA metric is negative (-0.7x), indicating that cash flow from operations more than offsets interest‑bearing liabilities; this figure also outperforms the ten‑year average of -3.2x and resides in the 70th percentile, reflecting a strong balance sheet relative to historical norms. There are no active alerts on leverage or solvency, and trends suggest modest improvement in Debt-to-Equity while net‑debt/EBITDA remains stable, underscoring a clear and sustainable debt position for the next 6‑18 months.
  • Potential for rapid earnings volatility could erode the negative Net‑Debt/EBITDA cushion if cash flow declines sharply.
  • Unexpected increases in interest rates may raise financing costs, though current low leverage provides ample headroom.
  • Debt-to-Equity improving trend signals ongoing deleveraging.
  • Negative Net‑Debt/EBITDA indicates strong operational cash generation relative to debt levels.
GHM clear
The company’s Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.06x is well below typical industry concern thresholds (often cited at 1.0x or higher) and has improved by 0.02 points year‑over‑year, indicating continued deleveraging. Net‑Debt/EBITDA is negative, meaning the firm generates sufficient operating cash to cover its debt obligations without relying on external financing; this metric has held steady with no YoY change, reinforcing debt sustainability. With both leverage ratios positioned comfortably within historical safety margins and no alerts triggered, Graham Corporation’s capital structure appears robust.
Cash Flow & Liquidity
Graham Corporation (GHM) — Cash Flow Risk
Graham Corporation’s cash generation profile is markedly weak, with both operating cash flow and free cash flow reported at $0.0 billion for the current period. Year‑over‑year changes of -$3.8 million in operating cash flow and -$13.5 million in free cash flow underscore a transition from positive cash generation to outright negative output, eroding the firm’s ability to fund capital expenditures or debt service without external financing. Liquidity metrics further accentuate stress: the current ratio has slipped to 1.04×—well below its 10‑year average of 2.41× and trending downward for four consecutive years—while the quick ratio is only 0.74× versus a historic average of 2.06×, indicating insufficient liquid assets to cover near‑term obligations. Although the cash ratio remains stable at 0.16×, it is far beneath the 0.65× ten‑year norm, offering little cushion against sudden cash outflows.
  • Zero operating and free cash flow indicating a loss of cash generation capability
  • Four consecutive years of declining current ratio, breaching the 1.5× safety threshold
  • Quick ratio well below the 1.0× benchmark, exposing the firm to short‑term liquidity strain
GHM critical
Operating cash flow has collapsed to zero, and free cash flow is also nil, reflecting an inability to convert earnings into cash after accounting for capital spending. The negative YoY changes (-$3.8 million operating, -$13.5 million free) suggest that the firm is likely financing operations through working‑capital drawdowns or external debt rather than internally generated cash. Short‑term liquidity is deteriorating, with the current ratio at 1.04× and quick ratio at 0.74×, both well under their historical averages and signaling heightened risk of covenant breaches or difficulty meeting supplier payments.
Earnings Quality
Graham Corporation (GHM) — Earnings Quality Risk
Graham Corporation’s earnings quality exhibits mixed signals. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has slipped to 1.99x from a ten‑year average of 2.52x, indicating that each dollar of reported profit is now supported by less than two dollars of cash—a clear deterioration and a potential red flag for sustainability. Meanwhile, the company’s capital intensity has surged, with capex consuming 78% of operating cash flow versus a historical norm of 16%, suggesting that a large share of cash generation is being reinvested rather than retained for dividends or debt reduction. On the positive side, the accrual ratio remains modestly negative at –0.046, close to its ten‑year average and well within comfortable bounds, implying limited earnings manipulation through aggressive accruals.
  • Earnings increasingly decoupled from cash flow (OCF/NI below 2x)
  • High and rising capital expenditures consuming the bulk of operating cash
  • Growing stock‑based compensation relative to revenue, indicating potential dilution
  • Accrual ratio remains low and stable, suggesting limited earnings manipulation
  • Operating cash flow still exceeds net income on a per‑dollar basis despite deterioration
GHM warning
The income quality metric signals that reported earnings are increasingly less backed by cash, as the OCF/NI ratio fell 4.18% year‑over‑year and sits well below its historical average. Although the accrual ratio is stable and only slightly negative—indicating limited divergence between accounting profit and cash flow—the sharp rise in capex (up 45% YoY) erodes free cash available for shareholders and heightens financing risk. Stock‑based compensation has risen to 0.9% of revenue, modest in absolute terms but trending upward, adding a marginal dilution pressure on earnings.
Risk Summary & Watchlist
Graham Corporation (GHM) — Risk Dashboard
The risk landscape across the screened universe is dominated by a single critical alert, originating from Graham Corporation (GHM). The sole issue flagged is a four‑year consecutive decline in the current ratio, indicating deteriorating short‑term liquidity and raising concerns about the company's ability to meet near‑term obligations without external financing. While no other firms exhibited alerts, the presence of this liquidity weakness underscores the importance of monitoring cash conversion cycles and working‑capital management for GHM. Overall, the risk profile is narrowly focused but significant, with a clear need for heightened scrutiny on balance‑sheet health in the coming quarters.
Risk Rankings
GHM critical
Current ratio has fallen for four consecutive years, signalling worsening liquidity risk.
Key Concern: Sustained decline in current ratio
Cross-Cutting Themes
  • Liquidity stress is the primary systemic theme, highlighted by the sole critical alert on current ratio.
Watchlist
  • Monitor Graham Corporation's current ratio each quarter and assess any further deterioration.
  • Track cash flow from operations and working‑capital changes to gauge whether operational improvements can offset liquidity pressure.
INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS
The identified liquidity weakness at Graham Corporation suggests that investors should approach the stock with heightened caution. A declining current ratio may limit the firm's flexibility to fund growth initiatives, service debt, or weather adverse market conditions without resorting to external capital, which could be costly if credit markets tighten. Consequently, any investment thesis must incorporate scenarios where additional financing is required and evaluate the company's access to affordable funding. Given that no other companies in the screened set triggered alerts, relative risk exposure remains concentrated in GHM. For portfolio construction, allocating capital away from Graham Corporation or limiting exposure until evidence of liquidity stabilization emerges would be prudent. Conversely, firms with clean profiles may present more attractive risk‑adjusted opportunities within the same sector or peer group.
Key Takeaways
  • 1. Graham Corporation faces a critical liquidity risk due to a four‑year decline in its current ratio.
  • 2. No other companies exhibited alerts, indicating an otherwise clean risk environment across the sample.
  • 3. Ongoing monitoring of GHM's short‑term solvency metrics is essential for timely risk mitigation.
GHM
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