Finexus Returns & Risk Profile
2026-06-07

Expro’s Upside Promise Meets a Heavy Downside Burden

Four risk flags and a deep drawdown history challenge its high‑volatility rally
XPRO Expro Group Holdings N.V.
In this report
01
Returns Overview
Period returns, alpha, cumulative performance, distributions
P. 2-3
→
02
Volatility Analysis
Annualized volatility, downside deviation, drawdowns
P. 4-5
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03
Beta & Correlation
Trailing, upside, downside beta, systematic risk
P. 6-7
→
04
Risk-Adjusted Returns
Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, Information, Treynor
P. 8-9
→
05
Market Regime Analysis
Bull/bear behavior, capture ratios
P. 10-11
→
06
Investment Highlights & Risk Summary
Executive summary, risk flags, rankings
P. 12-13
→
For informational purposes only — not investment advice. See full disclaimer at end.
Returns Overview
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Return Performance
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) delivered a highly volatile return profile over the past five years, with performance swinging dramatically across horizons. The stock posted an impressive 79.05% gain over the last year, far outpacing its sector ETF benchmark (XLE) which rose 40.75%, and generated alpha of 60.05% versus the sector. However, longer‑term returns have been negative, with a -15.4% five‑year total return and an even larger sector‑adjusted underperformance of -168.56%, reflecting substantial downside periods such as the -32.9% one‑year loss that lagged the sector by -65.81%. Short‑term results are mixed: a 4.13% one‑month gain produced modest alpha (6.72%) versus the sector, while the three‑month window saw a steep -11.66% decline and negative alpha of -24.76%, indicating recent volatility.
Period Returns vs S&P 500 & XLE
Monthly Returns Heatmap
XPRO
The stock generated strong positive alpha in the one‑year horizon (+60.05%) and modest upside in the six‑month period (+7.34% vs sector). Conversely, it underperformed sharply over three‑year (-79.12%) and five‑year (-87.22%) horizons, highlighting a divergence between short‑term rally and long‑term weakness. The most notable outlier is the one‑year return of 79.05%, which dwarfs both its longer‑term trajectory and sector performance.
Returns Overview
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Return Charts
Volatility Analysis
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Volatility Profile
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) exhibits markedly higher price variability than the broader market, with an annualized volatility of 62.9% versus the S&P 500’s 17.78%, indicating roughly 3.5 times the dispersion of returns. The stock’s downside risk profile is severe: a downside deviation of 44.13% reflects substantial loss‑side fluctuations, and the historical maximum drawdown of -94.07% stretched over a ten‑year period (May 2015 to April 2025) has not yet recovered, underscoring prolonged equity erosion potential. While short‑term volatility remains elevated—60‑day vol at 52.21% exceeds the longer‑term 252‑day average of 59.23%—the recent figure is slightly below the long‑term level, suggesting a modest easing but still far above market norms.
Volatility Metrics
XPRO
The company’s annualized volatility of 62.9% dwarfs the S&P 500 benchmark (17.78%), signaling that price swings are substantially larger and more frequent than those experienced by a typical large‑cap equity. Downside risk is pronounced, with a downside deviation of 44.13%—more than double the market’s implied downside volatility—and an unrecovered max drawdown of -94.07%, indicating that investors could face near‑total capital loss over extended periods. The current 60‑day volatility of 52.21% sits marginally below the 252‑day average of 59.23%, implying a slight short‑term moderation but still reflecting an environment of extreme risk relative to peers.
  • XPRO’s annualized volatility is roughly 3.5× higher than the S&P 500, highlighting elevated return dispersion.
  • Downside deviation of 44.13% points to pronounced loss‑side variability compared with typical market risk levels.
  • A historic max drawdown of -94.07% over a decade remains unrecovered, indicating extreme tail risk and long recovery horizons.
  • Short‑term (60‑day) volatility is marginally lower than the 252‑day average, suggesting a modest recent easing but still at very high absolute levels.
Positive Characteristics
  • The slight dip in 60‑day volatility below the 252‑day average may signal the beginning of a short‑term risk compression.
  • Despite overall high volatility, the company’s price movements could provide opportunities for traders seeking large intraday swings.
Volatility Analysis
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Volatility & Drawdown Charts
Beta & Correlation
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Beta Profile
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) exhibits a trailing beta of 1.465 versus the S&P 500, placing it firmly in the aggressive category (>1.2). This indicates that the stock tends to move roughly 46.5% more than the broad market on average, amplifying both upside and downside market swings. The upside beta of 1.717 exceeds the downside beta of 1.386, revealing a pronounced asymmetry: XPRO gains proportionally more in rising markets than it loses when markets fall, an attribute that can be attractive for momentum‑focused investors but also heightens exposure during bull cycles. The R-squared of 0.171 and correlation of 0.414 with the S&P 500 suggest that only about 17% of XPRO’s price variance is explained by overall market movements; the remaining 83% stems from idiosyncratic factors specific to the company or its niche within energy services. When benchmarked against the Energy sector (XLE), the sector beta of 1.318 and sector correlation of 0.611 indicate that XPRO is more sensitive to sector dynamics than to the broader market, with roughly 37% of its variance tied to sector trends. Consequently, risk decomposition shows a dominant idiosyncratic component (82.9%) versus a modest systematic share (17.1%), underscoring the importance of company‑specific fundamentals in driving performance.
Beta & Correlation Metrics
XPRO
The trailing market beta of 1.465 signals that XPRO is considerably more volatile than the S&P 500, classifying it as an aggressive equity. Its upside beta (1.717) outpaces downside beta (1.386), implying a steeper response to positive market moves relative to negative ones—a pattern that can enhance returns in up‑trends but also increase drawdowns if the rally stalls. The modest R-squared of 0.171 means diversification benefits are sizable; most price movement is not driven by broad market factors, allowing XPRO to behave independently within a portfolio. Sector analysis reveals a beta of 1.318 versus XLE and a sector correlation of 0.611, indicating that energy‑sector dynamics account for roughly one‑third of the stock’s variance (R² = 0.374). The systematic risk component is limited to 17.1% of total volatility, while idiosyncratic risk dominates at 82.9%, highlighting that company‑specific events—such as contract wins, operational efficiencies, or regulatory changes—are primary drivers of price behavior.
  • Trailing market beta of 1.465 classifies XPRO as an aggressive stock relative to the S&P 500.
  • Upside beta (1.717) exceeds downside beta (1.386), showing stronger upside sensitivity.
  • Low R-squared (0.171) indicates that 82.9% of price variance is idiosyncratic, offering diversification benefits.
  • Sector beta of 1.318 and sector correlation of 0.611 suggest notable exposure to energy‑sector movements, accounting for about 37% of variance.
  • Systematic risk constitutes only 17.1% of total volatility, emphasizing the predominance of company‑specific factors.
Positive Characteristics
  • High upside beta can generate outsized gains during bullish market phases.
  • Low overall R-squared provides meaningful diversification within a broader equity portfolio.
  • Strong sector correlation (0.611) allows investors to capture energy‑sector tailwinds while still benefiting from idiosyncratic upside potential.
Beta & Correlation
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Rolling Beta
Positive Notes

High upside beta can generate outsized gains during bullish market phases.

Low overall R-squared provides meaningful diversification within a broader equity portfolio.

Strong sector correlation (0.611) allows investors to capture energy‑sector tailwinds while still benefiting from idiosyncratic upside potential.

Risk-Adjusted Returns
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Risk-Adjusted Performance
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) exhibits modest risk-adjusted performance over the measurement horizon. The Sharpe ratio of 0.011 indicates that total returns barely exceed the risk‑free rate on a per‑unit‑risk basis, while the Sortino ratio of 0.016 is only marginally higher, suggesting that downside volatility is slightly lower than overall volatility but not enough to create a meaningful upside advantage. The Calmar ratio of 0.046 reflects a relatively weak return compared with the maximum historical drawdown, and the negative Information Ratio (-0.146) signals that active management has underperformed its benchmark on a risk‑adjusted basis.
Risk-free rate: 3.63% (Fed Funds Rate)
Risk-Adjusted Metrics
XPRO
With a Sharpe ratio of 0.011, XPRO’s total return barely compensates investors for the volatility taken, falling far short of the >1.0 threshold that denotes attractive risk‑adjusted performance. The Sortino ratio of 0.016, while higher than the Sharpe, remains close to zero, indicating limited protection against downside moves and a negligible premium for reduced downside risk. The Calmar ratio of 0.046 underscores that the stock’s average return is only about 4.6% of its worst drawdown, highlighting susceptibility to sharp declines. Moreover, an Information Ratio of -0.146 reveals that any active positioning has generated negative alpha relative to the benchmark, suggesting a lack of skill in delivering excess risk‑adjusted returns.
  • Sharpe ratio (0.011) is near zero, indicating returns barely above the risk‑free rate per unit of total volatility.
  • Sortino ratio exceeds Sharpe but remains low (0.016), showing limited upside from reduced downside risk.
  • Calmar ratio (0.046) points to a weak return-to-drawdown profile, implying significant drawdown severity relative to earnings.
  • Negative Information Ratio (-0.146) suggests underperformance of active management versus the benchmark on a risk‑adjusted basis.
  • Treynor ratio (0.472) is positive, indicating some compensation for systematic market risk, but its magnitude is modest compared with typical benchmarks.
Positive Characteristics
  • The Treynor ratio is positive, showing that XPRO does generate some return per unit of beta exposure.
  • Sortino ratio marginally exceeds Sharpe, hinting at a slightly better downside volatility profile than overall volatility.
Risk-Adjusted Returns
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Rolling Sharpe & Sortino
Positive Notes

The Treynor ratio is positive, showing that XPRO does generate some return per unit of beta exposure.

Sortino ratio marginally exceeds Sharpe, hinting at a slightly better downside volatility profile than overall volatility.

Market Regime Analysis
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Regime Behavior
Expro Group Holdings N.V. demonstrates markedly divergent performance across market regimes, delivering modest gains in calm uptrends but generating strong returns when the broader market is volatile and rising. In bullish environments with low volatility, the stock’s average monthly return of 0.44% reflects a relatively muted participation, whereas during Bull-HighVol periods it achieves an impressive 2.74% average, indicating sensitivity to heightened risk appetite. Conversely, in bear markets the company underperforms, posting losses of -4.28% in orderly declines and -4.75% when volatility spikes, underscoring its vulnerability to downside pressure.
Current Market Regime: Bull-HighVol
Bull-LowVol = calm uptrend • Bull-HighVol = volatile uptrend • Bear-LowVol = orderly decline • Bear-HighVol = crisis
Regime Returns & Capture Ratios
XPRO
During Bull-LowVol regimes, Expro’s modest 0.44% monthly return suggests limited upside capture (89.1%) relative to the S&P 500, reflecting a defensive tilt that may lag strong growth phases. In Bull-HighVol conditions, the stock’s average gain of 2.74% per month aligns with its higher upside capture but is still outpaced by the market, as indicated by an upside capture below 100%. The bear regimes reveal pronounced weakness: downside capture of 184.3% translates to amplified losses, especially in Bear-HighVol periods where volatility exacerbates the -4.75% average decline. Overall, the capture ratio of 0.48 signals that Expro captures less than half the upside relative to its downside exposure, a risk profile unfavorable for defensive investors.
Market Regime Analysis
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Regime & Capture Charts
Regime Timeline
  • Expro’s upside capture (89.1%) is below parity, meaning it lags the market in rising environments.
  • Downside capture of 184.3% indicates the stock loses nearly twice as much as the index during market declines.
  • The capture ratio of 0.48 confirms a net negative risk‑adjusted performance across regimes.
  • Performance spikes in Bull-HighVol (2.74% avg) but deteriorates sharply in Bear-HighVol (-4.75% avg).
  • Current Bull-HighVol regime favors Expro’s higher volatility exposure, potentially boosting short‑term returns.
Positive Characteristics
  • Strong average return of 2.74% per month during volatile uptrends suggests the business can benefit from risk‑on sentiment.
  • Limited downside in Bear-LowVol (-4.28%) relative to more extreme Bear-HighVol periods indicates some resilience when market volatility is subdued.
Investment Highlights & Risk Summary
Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) — Summary & Implications
Expro Group Holdings N.V. delivered an extraordinary 1‑year total return of 79.05%, generating an alpha of 60.05% versus the S&P 500 and outperforming its energy sector ETF (XLE) by 40.75%. However, this outperformance comes with pronounced risk characteristics: annualized volatility stands at 62.9%, beta is 1.465, and the stock has experienced a historic maximum drawdown of -94.07%, indicating that nearly all invested capital could be erased in severe market stress. The downside capture ratio of 184.3% versus an upside capture of only 89.1% reveals a pronounced asymmetry—exposures to market declines are amplified while gains are muted, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of merely 0.011 and a Sortino of 0.016, both far below the conventional threshold of 1.0 for attractive risk‑adjusted returns. Investors should weigh the compelling short‑term upside against the substantial downside risk, especially given the stock’s propensity to magnify market losses during energy sector downturns.
Summary Dashboard
Investment Highlights
  • The company posted a 79.05% return over the past year, delivering an alpha of 60.05% versus the S&P 500, indicating strong absolute performance.
  • Sector outperformance is evident with a 40.75% alpha relative to the Energy ETF (XLE), suggesting the business can generate returns independent of broader energy trends.
  • Upside capture of 89.1% shows that the stock participates in most of the market's positive moves, albeit modestly.
Risk-Return Rankings
XPRO HIGH
High return potential offset by extreme volatility and drawdown risk.
Strength: Outstanding 1‑year alpha of 60.05% versus the S&P 500.
Concern: Maximum historical drawdown of -94.07% with a downside capture ratio of 184.3%.
Key Takeaways
  • Expro's recent performance has been stellar, but it is driven by high risk rather than superior risk‑adjusted efficiency.
  • The stock’s beta of 1.465 and volatility of 62.9% imply amplified movements relative to the market, increasing both upside and downside exposure.
  • Sharpe (0.011) and Sortino (0.016) ratios are far below acceptable thresholds, indicating minimal excess return per unit of risk.
  • The capture profile is unfavorable: the stock captures nearly double the losses when the market falls while lagging in gains during up‑turns.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
Given its high volatility and asymmetric downside bias, Expro may serve as a speculative satellite position for investors seeking short‑term alpha bets within an energy‑focused allocation, but it should be limited to a small percentage of total portfolio capital. Pairing XPRO with low‑beta, low‑volatility assets—such as defensive consumer staples or high‑quality bond funds—can help mitigate overall portfolio risk and smooth returns during periods of market stress.
XPRO
Related Reports
Section Title Date
Macroeconomic Context (Slides) Rising Energy Costs Fuel New Opportunities for Expro Group 2026-06-07 Valuation Analysis (Slides) DCF Flags Massive Overvaluation Risk for Expro Group 2026-06-07
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Report written 2026-06-07 • Finexus
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Disclaimer

This report is generated by Finexus and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

The analysis is based on publicly available data from sources believed to be reliable, but Finexus does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Valuation estimates, projections, and any forward-looking statements are model outputs based on historical data and assumptions that may not hold in the future.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision. Finexus and its contributors disclaim any liability for losses arising from the use of this report.

Created 2026-06-07 · finexus.net

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