ManpowerGroup’s Downside Drag: Why the Stock Keeps Sucking in Losses

Five risk flags and a history of deep drawdowns raise questions about future returns

MAN ManpowerGroup Inc.

In this report

01

Returns Overview

Period returns, alpha, cumulative performance, distributions

P. 2-3

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02

Volatility Analysis

Annualized volatility, downside deviation, drawdowns

P. 4-5

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03

Beta & Correlation

Trailing, upside, downside beta, systematic risk

P. 6-7

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04

Risk-Adjusted Returns

Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, Information, Treynor

P. 8-9

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05

Market Regime Analysis

Bull/bear behavior, capture ratios

P. 10-11

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06

Investment Highlights & Risk Summary

Executive summary, risk flags, rankings

P. 12-13

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Returns Overview

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Return Performance

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) delivered a mixed return profile over the past 18 months, generating modest positive excess returns in the short term but underperforming sharply thereafter. Over the last month the stock rose 4.5% versus an alpha of 7.09% against its sector ETF, indicating it outperformed expectations; however, three- and six‑month periods showed diminishing alpha (+9.64% with -3.46% alpha and +8.64% with 0.78% alpha respectively). The longer horizons turned negative, with a one‑year decline of -20.05% and an alpha lagging the sector by -39.05%, while two‑year and beyond returns fell steeply to -51.76% (alpha -86.98%) and -68.52% (alpha -140.33%). This pattern highlights short‑term outperformance that quickly reversed into pronounced long‑term underperformance.

Period Returns vs S&P 500 & XLI

Monthly Returns Heatmap

MAN

ManpowerGroup generated positive alpha in the 1‑month window (+7.09%) and modestly held its ground over six months (alpha +0.78%), suggesting short‑term pricing efficiency or favorable news flow. By contrast, the stock posted large negative alphas from the one‑year horizon onward (-39.05% to -140.33%), indicating a sustained drift away from sector benchmarks and heightened downside risk in longer terms.

Returns Overview

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Return Charts

Volatility Analysis

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Volatility Profile

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) exhibits markedly higher price variability than the broader market, with an annualized volatility of 35.04% versus the S&P 500's 17.78%, indicating more than double the typical daily price swings. The stock’s downside risk is pronounced: a downside deviation of 26.79% reflects substantial losses during bearish periods, and a historic max drawdown of -76.1% from its January 2018 peak to February 2026 underscores both depth and prolonged recovery time, as no full rebound has occurred yet. Recent short‑term volatility remains elevated; the 60‑day vol of 52.4% and the 252‑day vol of 49.89% sit well above the long‑run average of 35.04%, suggesting heightened market sensitivity in the current environment.

Volatility Metrics

MAN

ManpowerGroup's volatility profile is aggressive relative to the S&P 500, delivering an annualized standard deviation that is roughly 97% higher than the benchmark. The downside deviation of 26.79% signals that negative returns are more extreme than positive ones, and the -76.1% max drawdown—spanning over eight years without full recovery—highlights a significant tail‑risk exposure for investors. Moreover, both the 60‑day (52.4%) and 252‑day (49.89%) volatilities exceed its historical average, indicating that recent market conditions have amplified price swings beyond what the stock has typically experienced.

Annualized volatility is nearly double the S&P 500 benchmark.
Downside deviation of 26.79% points to pronounced loss‑centric risk.
Maximum historical drawdown of -76.1% remains unrecovered after eight years.
Current short‑term volatilities (60d/252d) are substantially above the long‑term average.

Positive Characteristics
High volatility can create opportunities for tactical traders seeking larger price movements.
The stock’s elevated volatility may attract risk‑seeking investors looking for asymmetric upside potential relative to more stable assets.

Volatility Analysis

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Volatility & Drawdown Charts

Beta & Correlation

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Beta Profile

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) exhibits a trailing beta of 1.068 versus the S&P 500, placing it squarely in the market‑like range (0.8‑1.2). This indicates that, on average, the stock moves slightly more than the broad market during normal conditions, offering investors exposure comparable to an industrial‑sector index but without the heightened volatility of aggressive stocks. The upside beta of 1.082 exceeds the downside beta of 0.985, suggesting a modest asymmetry: the share tends to amplify gains in rising markets while cushioning losses when markets fall, a characteristic that can be valuable for risk‑adjusted portfolio construction.

Beta & Correlation Metrics

MAN

The market beta of 1.068 signals that MAN’s price is marginally more sensitive to overall equity movements than the S&P 500, yet its sector beta of 1.023 shows a very similar sensitivity to the Industrials index (XLI). The difference between the two betas—0.045 points—implies that most of the stock’s systematic risk stems from broad market dynamics rather than pure sector exposure. With an R‑squared of 29.4% against the S&P and 32.6% against XLI, roughly one‑third of MAN’s return variance is explained by these benchmarks; the remaining two‑thirds is idiosyncratic, highlighting substantial diversification potential for investors seeking non‑correlated exposure within industrials.

Trailing market beta (1.068) classifies MAN as a market‑like stock, offering moderate systematic risk.
Upside beta (1.082) exceeds downside beta (0.985), indicating a slight tilt toward stronger upside participation.
R-squared of 29.4% versus the S&P 500 means 70.6% of return variance is idiosyncratic, providing diversification benefits.
Sector beta (1.023) is close to market beta, showing that sector dynamics contribute only marginally to overall risk.
Systematic risk accounts for 29.4% of total variance, while idiosyncratic risk dominates at 70.6%.

Positive Characteristics
Upside beta > downside beta suggests the stock may outperform in bullish market regimes.
Low R-squared relative to both market and sector benchmarks indicates a high proportion of company‑specific drivers, which can reduce portfolio correlation.
Sector beta only marginally above 1 points to limited concentration risk within the Industrials sector.

Beta & Correlation

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Rolling Beta

Positive Notes

Upside beta > downside beta suggests the stock may outperform in bullish market regimes.

Low R-squared relative to both market and sector benchmarks indicates a high proportion of company‑specific drivers, which can reduce portfolio correlation.

Sector beta only marginally above 1 points to limited concentration risk within the Industrials sector.

Risk-Adjusted Returns

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Risk-Adjusted Performance

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) exhibits risk-adjusted performance that falls below the risk-free rate across multiple standard metrics. The Sharpe ratio of -0.04 indicates that total returns have underperformed a 3.63% risk‑free benchmark on a volatility‑adjusted basis, while the negative Treynor ratio (-1.304) signals that even after accounting for systematic market exposure, the stock has delivered losses relative to its beta. Downside‑focused measures reinforce this view: the Sortino ratio of -0.052 is more adverse than the Sharpe, implying that downside volatility has contributed disproportionately to the underperformance.

Risk-free rate: 3.63% (Fed Funds Rate)

Risk-Adjusted Metrics

MAN

The negative Sharpe (-0.04) and Sortino (-0.052) ratios demonstrate that MAN has generated returns below the risk‑free rate, with a slightly worse profile when isolating downside risk. The Calmar ratio of 0.029, derived from the annualized return divided by the maximum drawdown, suggests that the company’s worst peak‑to‑trough loss has been severe relative to its modest gains, highlighting limited capital preservation during market stress. An Information Ratio of -0.358 indicates that active management or alpha generation has been negative; the stock has not consistently outperformed a relevant benchmark after adjusting for tracking error.

All risk‑adjusted ratios are negative, confirming underperformance versus the 3.63% risk‑free rate.
The Sortino ratio is more negative than the Sharpe, pointing to heightened sensitivity to downside volatility.
A Calmar ratio of 0.029 reflects a steep maximum drawdown relative to any positive return, indicating poor drawdown management.
The Information Ratio below zero shows that active strategies have not added value and have generated negative alpha.

Positive Characteristics
Despite overall weakness, the modest magnitude of the Sharpe (-0.04) suggests limited absolute loss rather than extreme volatility.
The company’s beta exposure is low enough that the Treynor ratio, while negative, does not imply excessive market risk.

Risk-Adjusted Returns

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Rolling Sharpe & Sortino

Positive Notes

Despite overall weakness, the modest magnitude of the Sharpe (-0.04) suggests limited absolute loss rather than extreme volatility.

The company’s beta exposure is low enough that the Treynor ratio, while negative, does not imply excessive market risk.

Market Regime Analysis

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Regime Behavior

ManpowerGroup Inc. demonstrates modestly positive returns in bullish environments but its performance deteriorates sharply during market stress. In Bull-LowVol periods the stock delivers an average monthly gain of 1.41%, reflecting strong alignment with a calm, upward equity market, while in Bull-HighVol regimes the return falls to 1.22% despite higher overall market volatility, indicating some sensitivity to turbulence even when trends remain positive. Conversely, bear markets expose significant weakness: during Bear-LowVol phases the stock barely holds its ground with a 0.22% monthly gain, and in Bear-HighVol conditions it suffers an average loss of 4.07%, underscoring vulnerability to sharp declines and heightened volatility.

Current Market Regime: Bull-HighVol

Bull-LowVol = calm uptrend • Bull-HighVol = volatile uptrend • Bear-LowVol = orderly decline • Bear-HighVol = crisis

Regime Returns & Capture Ratios

MAN

ManpowerGroup’s upside capture of 84.2% signals that the stock participates in roughly four‑fifths of market gains, which is respectable but below the S&P 500 benchmark of 100%. The downside capture of 147.4% reveals a pronounced tendency to underperform during declines, losing about one and a half times what the index loses. This asymmetry yields a capture ratio of 0.57, well under the ideal threshold of 1.0, indicating that risk‑adjusted returns are weighted toward downside exposure. In the current Bull-HighVol regime—where the S&P is above its 50‑day SMA but volatility is elevated—the company’s average return of 1.22% suggests it can still generate positive momentum, though investors should be mindful of its heightened sensitivity to market swings.

Market Regime Analysis

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Regime & Capture Charts

Regime Timeline

ManpowerGroup generates solid returns in calm bull markets (1.41% avg) but sees a modest decline in performance when volatility rises (1.22%).
The stock’s downside capture of 147.4% indicates it loses significantly more than the market during bear phases, especially in volatile declines (-4.07% avg).
A capture ratio of 0.57 reflects an overall risk profile that is skewed toward loss rather than gain; ideal defensive stocks would exhibit ratios above 1.0.
In the present Bull-HighVol environment, ManpowerGroup’s positive but muted return suggests limited upside potential amid heightened market turbulence.

Positive Characteristics
Maintains positive monthly returns even in a volatile uptrend, providing some resilience when markets are unsettled.
Strong performance in low‑volatility bull markets indicates the business can thrive under stable economic conditions.

Investment Highlights & Risk Summary

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) — Summary & Implications

ManpowerGroup Inc. has delivered a 1‑year total return of -20.05%, trailing the S&P 500 by an alpha of -39.05% and underperforming its industrials peer group (ETF XLI) by 39.02%. The stock exhibits elevated risk characteristics, with annualized volatility of 35.04%, a maximum drawdown of -76.1%, and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.04, indicating that returns have been below the risk‑free rate on a risk‑adjusted basis. Capture metrics reveal an asymmetric profile: upside capture stands at 84.2% while downside capture is 147.4%, meaning the share amplifies market declines more than it participates in gains. Although beta of 1.068 suggests modestly higher sensitivity to overall market moves, the combination of deep drawdowns and poor risk‑adjusted performance places ManpowerGroup in a high‑risk category for the next 6‑18 months. Investors should weigh these downside risks against any potential upside from sector‑specific recovery or strategic initiatives before allocating capital.

Summary Dashboard

Investment Highlights

Beta of 1.068 is close to market beta, indicating that price movements are broadly aligned with overall equity trends rather than extreme leverage.
Upside capture of 84.2% shows the stock still participates in a majority of market gains despite broader weakness.
The company remains a pure‑play industrial staffing provider, offering exposure to labor‑market dynamics that may benefit from post‑pandemic hiring rebounds.

Risk-Return Rankings

MAN HIGH

High volatility and deep drawdown combined with negative risk‑adjusted metrics result in a high‑risk profile.

Strength: Moderate beta (1.068) keeps exposure to market moves from being overly amplified.

Concern: Negative Sharpe (-0.04) and downside capture of 147% signal poor risk‑adjusted performance and asymmetrical downside risk.

Key Takeaways

ManpowerGroup has underperformed both the S&P 500 and its industrials sector by roughly 39% over the past year.
Risk metrics are unfavorable: negative Sharpe, high volatility (35.04%), and a maximum drawdown of -76.1%.
Downside capture exceeds 147%, indicating that the stock magnifies market declines more than it benefits from rallies.
Beta is slightly above 1, suggesting exposure to overall market movements without extreme leverage.

PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS

Given its high volatility and asymmetric downside risk, ManpowerGroup may be suited only for portfolios seeking targeted exposure to labor‑market cycles and willing to accept significant drawdown potential. It could serve as a small, tactical allocation within a broader diversified basket of industrials, but the weight should remain limited to mitigate portfolio drag during market downturns. Investors focused on risk‑adjusted returns might prefer pairing MAN with lower‑beta, higher‑Sharpe assets to balance overall portfolio volatility.

MAN

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Report written 2026-06-07 • Finexus

Disclaimer

This report is generated by Finexus and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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