Centuri’s Roller‑Coaster: Historic Drawdowns Meet a Bull‑High‑Vol Surge

Why the latest volatility spike could test the stock’s resilience over the next year

CTRI Centuri Holdings, Inc.

In this report

01

Returns Overview

Period returns, alpha, cumulative performance, distributions

P. 2-3

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02

Volatility Analysis

Annualized volatility, downside deviation, drawdowns

P. 4-5

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03

Beta & Correlation

Trailing, upside, downside beta, systematic risk

P. 6-7

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04

Risk-Adjusted Returns

Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, Information, Treynor

P. 8-9

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05

Market Regime Analysis

Bull/bear behavior, capture ratios

P. 10-11

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06

Investment Highlights & Risk Summary

Executive summary, risk flags, rankings

P. 12-13

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Returns Overview

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Return Performance

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) posted mixed short‑term performance but delivered strong upside over longer horizons. Over the past month the stock fell 2.93% while underperforming its sector ETF by 0.34 percentage points, yet it generated a modest sector‑adjusted outperformance of -2.77% relative to the broader market. The three‑month return turned positive at 2.16%, lagging the sector by 10.94 points but still beating the absolute benchmark by 5.51%. The six‑month and one‑year horizons showed pronounced strength, with returns of 18.18% (alpha +10.32%) and 32.98% (alpha +13.98%), respectively, indicating that CTRI has been a significant driver of upside relative to its utility peers.

Period Returns vs S&P 500 & XLU

Monthly Returns Heatmap

CTRI

CTRI’s recent performance reflects a short‑term dip followed by robust medium‑term momentum; the stock reversed its early underperformance and delivered double‑digit alpha over six months and one year. The divergence between near‑term (1M) negative return and longer‑term positive alpha suggests that current pricing may be temporarily depressed, offering potential upside if the trend persists. Notably, the 2‑year total return of 53.18% with an alpha of 17.96% underscores CTRI as a standout performer within the utilities sector over the extended horizon.

Returns Overview

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Return Charts

Volatility Analysis

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Volatility Profile

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) exhibits markedly higher price variability than the broader market, with an annualized volatility of 52.65% versus the S&P 500’s 17.78%, indicating more than a three‑fold increase in risk per unit of time. The stock’s downside profile is also pronounced: a downside deviation of 40.83% and a maximum drawdown of -45.67% over roughly 15 months demonstrate that losses can be deep and protracted, especially when the market environment turns adverse. While short‑term volatility (60‑day at 60.2%) remains above its longer‑term 252‑day level (44.22%), the elevated recent swings suggest heightened sensitivity to news or sector dynamics, which may deter risk‑averse investors but could be attractive for those seeking higher return potential with commensurate risk.

Volatility Metrics

CTRI

The company’s volatility is approximately 3.0× the S&P 500 benchmark, reflecting a substantially more turbulent price path that can amplify both gains and losses. Downside risk metrics reinforce this view: a downside deviation of 40.83% signals that negative returns are considerably larger than the average market downside, while the -45.67% max drawdown—lasting from early June 2024 to mid‑January 2026—highlights a prolonged period of capital erosion and slow recovery. The current 60‑day volatility (60.2%) exceeds the trailing 252‑day average (44.22%), indicating that recent market conditions have intensified price swings beyond the stock’s historical norm.

CTRI’s annualized volatility is more than three times that of the S&P 500.
Downside deviation of 40.83% points to larger-than‑average negative moves relative to market benchmarks.
Maximum drawdown of -45.67% persisted for over a year, underscoring significant capital risk.
Recent 60‑day volatility (60.2%) is above the long‑term 252‑day average (44.22%).
The prolonged recovery period suggests limited resilience during market stress.

Positive Characteristics
Higher volatility can provide larger upside potential for aggressive investors.
When volatility contracts toward its longer‑term average, price stabilization may present entry opportunities.

Volatility Analysis

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Volatility & Drawdown Charts

Beta & Correlation

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Beta Profile

Centuri Holdings exhibits a trailing market beta of 1.368, placing it firmly in the aggressive category (>1.2) and indicating that its equity price tends to amplify S&P 500 movements by roughly 37% on average. The upside beta of 1.586 versus downside beta of 1.181 reveals a pronounced asymmetry: gains tend to be more sensitive to market rallies, while losses are comparatively muted during market declines, an attribute that can shape risk‑adjusted return expectations for investors. With an R-squared of 0.176 and a correlation of 0.419, only about 18% of the stock’s variance is explained by broad market factors, implying that the majority of its price behavior stems from idiosyncratic drivers, which can both diversify a portfolio and introduce company‑specific volatility.

Beta & Correlation Metrics

CTRI

The trailing beta of 1.368 signals that Centuri is more volatile than the market, reacting strongly to macroeconomic shifts. However, its sector beta of 0.844 against the Utilities index suggests that the stock’s movements are less tied to sector‑specific dynamics, indicating a risk profile driven more by company fundamentals than utilities industry trends. The low sector R-squared of 0.065 further confirms that only 6.5% of price variation is explained by sector movements, reinforcing the view that Centuri’s risk is predominantly idiosyncratic.

Market beta of 1.368 classifies Centuri as aggressive relative to the S&P 500.
Upside beta (1.586) exceeds downside beta (1.181), highlighting greater sensitivity on market rallies than on declines.
R-squared of 0.176 indicates that roughly 82% of price variance is idiosyncratic, offering diversification benefits.
Systematic risk accounts for only 17.6% of total variance, while idiosyncratic risk dominates at 82.4%.
Sector beta (0.844) and sector R-squared (0.065) show limited exposure to utilities‑specific drivers.

Positive Characteristics
The lower sector beta reduces vulnerability to utilities industry cycles.
High idiosyncratic component can enhance portfolio diversification when combined with broader market assets.
Upside beta above 1.5 suggests potential for outsized gains during bullish market phases.

Beta & Correlation

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Rolling Beta

Positive Notes

The lower sector beta reduces vulnerability to utilities industry cycles.

High idiosyncratic component can enhance portfolio diversification when combined with broader market assets.

Upside beta above 1.5 suggests potential for outsized gains during bullish market phases.

Risk-Adjusted Returns

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Risk-Adjusted Performance

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) delivers modest risk-adjusted returns relative to traditional benchmarks. A Sharpe ratio of 0.427 falls well below the 1.0 threshold that signals adequate compensation for total volatility, indicating that the stock's excess return over the 3.63% risk‑free rate is limited per unit of risk taken. Nonetheless, the Sortino ratio of 0.551 exceeds the Sharpe figure, suggesting that downside volatility is lower than overall volatility and that the company’s performance suffers less from adverse price moves than a typical equity with similar total risk.

Risk-free rate: 3.63% (Fed Funds Rate)

Risk-Adjusted Metrics

CTRI

The Calmar ratio of 0.572 reflects a modest return relative to the worst historical drawdown, implying that periods of significant loss have eroded much of the upside potential. An Information Ratio of 0.136 signals only weak consistency in generating alpha above its benchmark, far short of the >0.5 level associated with reliable active outperformance. The Treynor ratio of 16.447, expressed as a percentage point excess return per unit of systematic risk (beta), is unusually high; however, without an accompanying beta figure it is difficult to gauge whether this reflects genuine market exposure or data scaling issues.

Sharpe ratio (0.427) indicates insufficient compensation for total volatility.
Sortino ratio (0.551) exceeds Sharpe, highlighting a relatively favorable downside risk profile.
Calmar ratio (0.572) points to modest returns versus the severity of past drawdowns.
Information Ratio (0.136) suggests limited consistency in generating alpha.
Treynor ratio appears high but lacks context without beta, limiting its interpretive value.

Positive Characteristics
Downside volatility is lower than overall volatility, as shown by the higher Sortino ratio.
The Treynor ratio implies strong excess returns per unit of systematic risk, pending clarification of beta.

Risk-Adjusted Returns

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Rolling Sharpe & Sortino

Positive Notes

Downside volatility is lower than overall volatility, as shown by the higher Sortino ratio.

The Treynor ratio implies strong excess returns per unit of systematic risk, pending clarification of beta.

Market Regime Analysis

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Regime Behavior

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) demonstrates a pronounced sensitivity to market volatility regimes. In Bull-HighVol environments—characterized by an upward‑trending S&P 500 coupled with above‑median realized volatility—the stock delivers its strongest performance, averaging a 5.6% monthly return over the past ten months. Conversely, during calmer Bull-LowVol periods it posts a modest decline of -2.08%, indicating that the company’s upside is largely driven by heightened market activity rather than steady growth. In Bear-HighVol conditions, CTRI still manages a positive average return of 2.65% over four months, suggesting some defensive qualities, while the lack of data in Bear-LowVol makes it difficult to assess performance during orderly declines. The current Bull‑HighVol regime therefore favors CTRI’s momentum‑biased profile, offering investors potential upside but also exposing them to heightened volatility risk.

Current Market Regime: Bull-HighVol

Bull-LowVol = calm uptrend • Bull-HighVol = volatile uptrend • Bear-LowVol = orderly decline • Bear-HighVol = crisis

Regime Returns & Capture Ratios

CTRI

During Bull-HighVol periods, CTRI’s average monthly gain of 5.6% reflects a strong alignment with market rally dynamics, likely driven by its exposure to sectors that benefit from heightened trading activity and risk appetite. In contrast, the -2.08% return in Bull‑LowVol markets suggests the stock underperforms when the broader market rises smoothly, indicating limited defensive attributes in calm uptrends. The positive 2.65% average in Bear‑HighVol months points to a modest defensive edge during turbulent declines, though the absence of data for Bear‑LowVol regimes leaves uncertainty about its behavior in orderly bear markets. Overall, CTRI’s upside capture of 50.0% and downside capture of -57.4% yield a capture ratio of -0.87, meaning the stock captures less than half of market gains while taking on proportionally larger losses during downturns.

Market Regime Analysis

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Regime & Capture Charts

Regime Timeline

CTRI excels in volatile up‑market environments, delivering +5.6% average monthly returns in Bull‑HighVol regimes.
The stock underperforms in calm rising markets, with a -2.08% average return in Bull‑LowVol periods.
A modest upside in Bear‑HighVol (average +2.65%) suggests limited defensive characteristics during market stress.
Upside capture of 50.0% and downside capture of -57.4% produce a negative capture ratio (-0.87), indicating disproportionate loss exposure relative to gains.
The current Bull‑HighVol regime aligns with CTRI’s historical strength, potentially supporting short‑term upside.

Positive Characteristics
Strong performance in volatile bullish markets provides an opportunity for upside when market sentiment is heightened.
Positive average returns during Bear‑HighVol periods suggest some resilience under stress, albeit limited.

Investment Highlights & Risk Summary

Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) — Summary & Implications

Centuri Holdings delivered a robust 1‑year total return of 32.98%, generating an alpha of 13.98% versus the S&P 500 and outpacing its utility sector peers by 22.82% on a risk‑adjusted basis. However, this performance came with pronounced volatility (annualized 52.65%) and a deep maximum drawdown of -45.67%, indicating that gains have been highly volatile and subject to sharp reversals. The stock’s beta of 1.368 signals higher systematic risk than the market, while a Sharpe ratio of 0.427 and Sortino of 0.551 reflect modest excess returns per unit of total and downside risk respectively. Investors should weigh the attractive upside capture (50% of S&P gains) against an adverse downside capture of -57.4%, which suggests that losses have been more severe than gains during market declines.

Summary Dashboard

Investment Highlights

Alpha of 13.98% versus the S&P 500 demonstrates that the company has delivered excess returns beyond broad market movements over the past year.
Sector alpha of 22.82% indicates Centuri has significantly outperformed the utility ETF (XLU), highlighting relative strength within its industry.
Upside capture of 50.0% shows the stock participates in roughly half of market rallies, providing positive contribution when equities rise.
Beta of 1.368 reflects a higher sensitivity to market movements, which can amplify returns during bullish periods.

Risk-Return Rankings

CTRI HIGH

Strong absolute returns and sector outperformance are offset by high volatility and deep drawdowns.

Strength: Sector alpha of +22.82% versus the utility benchmark (XLU).

Concern: Maximum drawdown of -45.67% and annualized volatility of 52.65%.

Key Takeaways

Centuri’s outperformance relative to both the S&P 500 and its sector comes with a cost: volatility far exceeds the market average (52.65% vs 17.1%).
The downside capture ratio of -57.4% signals that losses have been steeper than gains during market declines, raising concerns for risk‑averse investors.
A Sharpe ratio below 0.5 suggests modest compensation for total risk, implying the stock may not be efficient on a risk‑adjusted basis.
High beta (1.368) means the stock will likely move more than the broader market, amplifying both upside and downside scenarios.

PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS

Centuri can serve as a high‑beta growth tilt within a utility allocation for investors seeking sector outperformance, but its elevated volatility and deep drawdown history require careful position sizing. Pairing this stock with lower‑beta, low‑volatility holdings—such as traditional regulated utilities or defensive consumer staples—can help smooth portfolio returns and mitigate downside risk during market corrections.

CTRI

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Report written 2026-06-07 • Finexus

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This report is generated by Finexus and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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