Finexus Returns & Risk Profile
2026-06-07

Alkami’s Downside Drag: Why the Upside Isn’t Enough

Five risk flags and a deep drawdown history signal heightened vulnerability despite recent rally
ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc.
In this report
01
Returns Overview
Period returns, alpha, cumulative performance, distributions
P. 2-3
→
02
Volatility Analysis
Annualized volatility, downside deviation, drawdowns
P. 4-5
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03
Beta & Correlation
Trailing, upside, downside beta, systematic risk
P. 6-7
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04
Risk-Adjusted Returns
Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, Information, Treynor
P. 8-9
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05
Market Regime Analysis
Bull/bear behavior, capture ratios
P. 10-11
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06
Investment Highlights & Risk Summary
Executive summary, risk flags, rankings
P. 12-13
→
Returns Overview
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Return Performance
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) has underperformed its technology sector benchmark across all horizons, delivering negative returns that are substantially worse than the sector's performance. Over the past month the stock fell 12.55% versus a sector alpha of -9.96% and sector-relative return of -6.94%; the three‑month window shows a modest 1.4% gain but still lagging behind sector alpha of -11.7% and relative underperformance of -34.26%. The longer horizons are markedly negative, with a 12‑month loss of 47.28% (sector alpha -66.28%, relative -90.07%) and a five‑year decline of 55.45% (sector alpha -127.27%, relative -208.36%). This consistent underperformance indicates that ALKT has generated little to no positive alpha, with short‑term fluctuations offering limited upside and long‑term divergence widening dramatically.
Period Returns vs S&P 500 & XLK
Monthly Returns Heatmap
ALKT
The stock’s return profile shows persistent negative alpha; even in the brief three‑month period where ALKT posted a 1.4% gain, it still trailed sector performance by over 34%. Over medium (6‑12 month) and long (2‑5 year) horizons, the divergence widens sharply, reflecting a compounded shortfall relative to its technology peers.
Returns Overview
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Return Charts
Volatility Analysis
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Volatility Profile
Alkami Technology (ALKT) exhibits markedly higher price variability than the broader market, with an annualized volatility of 48.74% compared to the S&P 500's 17.78%, indicating more than 2.7 times the typical market swing. The stock’s downside risk is pronounced: a downside deviation of 35.17% and a historic maximum drawdown of -79.03% over a twelve‑month period underscore severe loss potential during adverse regimes. Recent short‑term volatility remains elevated, as both the 60‑day (48.97%) and 252‑day (50.67%) measures sit above the long‑term average, suggesting that heightened price swings are persisting rather than receding.
Volatility Metrics
ALKT
Alkami’s volatility profile is substantially more aggressive than the S&P 500 benchmark, reflecting a risk‑on equity with limited pricing stability. The downside deviation of 35.17% signals that negative returns are both frequent and severe, while the -79.03% max drawdown—spanning roughly one year from April 2021 to May 2022—demonstrates an extreme loss episode without any subsequent recovery to prior peaks. Moreover, the current 60‑day and 252‑day volatilities exceed its own long‑term average, indicating that market participants continue to price significant uncertainty into the stock.
  • Annualized volatility of ALKT is 48.74%, more than 2.7× the S&P 500’s 17.78%.
  • Downside deviation stands at 35.17%, highlighting pronounced asymmetric risk.
  • Maximum historical drawdown reached -79.03% over a 12‑month window, with no recovery to date.
  • Both 60‑day (48.97%) and 252‑day (50.67%) volatilities are above the long‑term average, indicating sustained price turbulence.
  • The risk profile suggests limited upside capture potential relative to its high volatility exposure.
Positive Characteristics
  • High volatility can generate sizable short‑term gains for traders adept at timing market moves.
  • Persistent elevated volatility may attract liquidity providers seeking wider bid‑ask spreads.
Volatility Analysis
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Volatility & Drawdown Charts
Beta & Correlation
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Beta Profile
Alkami Technology exhibits a trailing beta of 1.366 versus the S&P 500, placing it in the aggressive range (>1.2) and indicating that its equity price tends to amplify broad market movements by roughly 37% more than an average stock. The upside beta (1.307) is modestly lower than the downside beta (1.369), suggesting slightly less sensitivity when markets rise and a marginally higher exposure during declines, a nuance that risk‑aware investors should monitor for potential asymmetry in drawdowns. With an R-squared of 22.2% against the market, only about one‑fifth of ALKT’s price variance is explained by systematic factors, leaving roughly 78% driven by idiosyncratic forces, which implies a relatively high diversification benefit within a broader portfolio.
Beta & Correlation Metrics
ALKT
The market beta of 1.366 signals that Alkami is more volatile than the S&P 500 and will likely outperform in bullish cycles but also underperform during downturns. The sector beta of 0.893 versus XLK indicates that, relative to its technology peers, the stock is less sensitive to sector‑specific shocks, meaning a sizable portion of its risk stems from broader market dynamics rather than pure tech exposure. The modest sector correlation (0.457) and low sector R² (20.9%) reinforce this view, highlighting that company‑specific drivers dominate performance.
  • Trailing beta >1.2 classifies Alkami as an aggressive stock with amplified market moves.
  • Downside beta (1.369) exceeds upside beta (1.307), indicating a slight bias toward larger losses in falling markets.
  • R-squared of 22.2% means only a minority of price movements are explained by the S&P 500, offering diversification benefits.
  • Systematic risk accounts for 22.2% while idiosyncratic risk makes up 77.8%, underscoring company‑specific volatility.
  • Sector beta (0.893) is lower than market beta, showing that sector exposure contributes less to total risk than overall market exposure.
Positive Characteristics
  • Lower sector beta suggests resilience against technology‑sector downturns.
  • High idiosyncratic component provides potential for outsized upside if company fundamentals improve.
Beta & Correlation
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Rolling Beta
Positive Notes

Lower sector beta suggests resilience against technology‑sector downturns.

High idiosyncratic component provides potential for outsized upside if company fundamentals improve.

Risk-Adjusted Returns
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Risk-Adjusted Performance
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) exhibits negative risk-adjusted performance across all standard metrics, indicating that its returns have lagged the risk-free rate after accounting for volatility and drawdowns. The Sharpe ratio of -0.227 signals underperformance on a total‑risk basis, while the even lower Sortino ratio of -0.315 suggests that downside volatility has been more detrimental than overall volatility. With a Calmar ratio of -0.094 and an Information Ratio of -0.466, the stock has delivered modest returns relative to its worst drawdown and has failed to generate consistent alpha, respectively, placing it at the bottom of any ranking of risk‑adjusted performance.
Risk-free rate: 3.63% (Fed Funds Rate)
Risk-Adjusted Metrics
ALKT
Alkami Technology’s Sharpe ratio of -0.227 confirms that the stock has underperformed the 3.63% risk‑free rate after adjusting for total volatility, and the more negative Sortino ratio (-0.315) indicates that downside risk has been a particular drag on performance. The Calmar ratio of -0.094 reflects a severe worst‑case drawdown relative to its already modest returns, highlighting vulnerability in adverse market regimes. Moreover, an Information Ratio of -0.466 shows that active management or any alpha generation has been inconsistent and negative, reinforcing the overall weak risk‑adjusted profile.
  • All risk‑adjusted metrics are negative, indicating returns below the risk‑free rate.
  • Downside volatility (Sortino) is worse than total volatility (Sharpe), pointing to heightened sensitivity to losses.
  • The Calmar ratio of -0.094 reveals that the worst drawdown has eroded most of any positive return.
  • Information Ratio below zero signals a lack of consistent alpha generation.
Positive Characteristics
  • None identified; all risk‑adjusted measures are unfavorable.
Risk-Adjusted Returns
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Rolling Sharpe & Sortino
Positive Notes

None identified; all risk‑adjusted measures are unfavorable.

Market Regime Analysis
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Regime Behavior
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) exhibits a pronounced sensitivity to market volatility, delivering modest gains in calm up‑trends but turning sharply negative when the S&P 500 rallies amid heightened volatility. In the Bull‑LowVol regime, the stock posts an average monthly return of 0.79%, reflecting its ability to capture a small portion of upside when markets are stable. Conversely, during Bull‑HighVol periods the average return falls to –1.02%, indicating that the stock underperforms in volatile bullish environments and is vulnerable to risk‑off sentiment. The bear regimes reveal an asymmetric profile: while ALKT generates a strong 4.59% gain in the rare Bear‑LowVol month, it suffers a steep –3.81% decline during Bear‑HighVol months, underscoring its weakness when market stress coincides with high volatility. The overall upside capture of 11.0% versus a downside capture of 85.0% yields a capture ratio of 0.13, confirming that the stock captures far less upside than it loses on the downside.
Current Market Regime: Bull-HighVol
Bull-LowVol = calm uptrend • Bull-HighVol = volatile uptrend • Bear-LowVol = orderly decline • Bear-HighVol = crisis
Regime Returns & Capture Ratios
ALKT
In Bull‑LowVol conditions, ALKT’s modest 0.79% average return suggests limited participation in broad market gains, reflecting a defensive tilt but with low growth contribution. During Bull‑HighVol periods, the –1.02% average indicates heightened downside sensitivity as investors retreat from riskier tech exposures; the stock’s beta to upside is effectively muted. The solitary Bear‑LowVol month delivering 4.59% demonstrates that in orderly declines the company can hold value or even appreciate modestly, a trait of defensive names. However, the –3.81% average in Bear‑HighVol regimes signals pronounced vulnerability when market turbulence intensifies, as downside capture soars to 85.0%, eroding investor capital.
Market Regime Analysis
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Regime & Capture Charts
Regime Timeline
  • ALKT’s upside capture (11.0%) is far below the S&P 500 benchmark of 100%, indicating weak participation in market rallies.
  • Downside capture at 85.0% shows the stock loses a large share of market declines, especially pronounced in Bear‑HighVol periods.
  • The capture ratio of 0.13 is well under the ideal threshold of 1.0, highlighting an unfavorable risk‑return asymmetry.
  • Current Bull‑HighVol regime aligns with ALKT’s negative average performance (–1.02%), suggesting near‑term pressure on returns.
Positive Characteristics
  • ALKT demonstrated a strong 4.59% gain in the rare Bear‑LowVol month, indicating defensive resilience when markets decline calmly.
  • The modest positive return of 0.79% in Bull‑LowVol periods shows the stock can still generate incremental upside in stable market environments.
Investment Highlights & Risk Summary
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) — Summary & Implications
Alkami Technology (ALKT) has delivered a challenging performance over the past year, posting a total return of -47.28% and an alpha of -66.28% versus the S&P 500. The stock’s volatility is elevated at an annualized 48.74%, with a beta of 1.366 indicating amplified sensitivity to market movements, while its Sharpe ratio of -0.227 signals that returns have been below the risk‑free rate on a risk‑adjusted basis. Downside risk is pronounced: the maximum drawdown reached -79.03% and downside capture stands at 85%, compared with a modest upside capture of only 11%, highlighting an asymmetric risk profile that favours losses over gains. Despite these headwinds, the company’s beta below 1.5 suggests potential for higher absolute returns in a rising tech cycle, but investors must weigh the deep drawdown history and poor sector relative performance (sector alpha -90.07%) when assessing suitability.
Summary Dashboard
Investment Highlights
  • Beta of 1.366 indicates that ALKT could benefit disproportionately from any rebound in technology sentiment, offering upside potential if market conditions improve.
  • Upside capture of 11% shows the stock participates modestly in positive market moves, which may be attractive for investors seeking a small contribution to rally gains while managing overall portfolio exposure.
  • Sector beta of 0.893 suggests that ALKT is less volatile than the broader technology ETF (XLK), providing a marginal diversification benefit within a tech‑heavy allocation.
Risk-Return Rankings
ALKT HIGH
High volatility and deep drawdown dominate the risk profile, outweighing modest upside capture.
Strength: Potential for amplified gains in a tech rally due to beta of 1.366
Concern: Maximum drawdown of -79.03% and negative Sharpe ratio
Key Takeaways
  • ALKT’s performance has lagged both the S&P 500 and its technology sector by wide margins, reflecting significant underperformance.
  • The stock exhibits an unfavorable risk asymmetry: downside capture (85%) far exceeds upside capture (11%).
  • High volatility (48.74%) and a negative Sharpe ratio indicate that risk‑adjusted returns have been poor over the past year.
  • Beta above 1 suggests heightened sensitivity to market swings, which could be beneficial in a strong tech upturn but magnifies losses in downturns.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
Given its high volatility and pronounced downside bias, ALKT is best suited for investors with a high risk tolerance seeking speculative exposure to technology upside. It may serve as a small satellite position within a diversified portfolio that already contains lower‑beta, higher‑Sharpe assets to offset the potential drag from ALKT’s negative risk‑adjusted returns. Portfolio construction should limit allocation size and consider hedging strategies or stop‑loss controls to manage the risk of further large drawdowns.
ALKT
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This report is generated by Finexus and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

The analysis is based on publicly available data from sources believed to be reliable, but Finexus does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Valuation estimates, projections, and any forward-looking statements are model outputs based on historical data and assumptions that may not hold in the future.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision. Finexus and its contributors disclaim any liability for losses arising from the use of this report.

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