The 1-year outperformance of 36.8 percentage points over the S&P 500 signifies a fundamental shift in investor perception, where Morgan Stanley is no longer viewed as a cyclical trade but as a premium wealth manager capable of generating outsized returns during market recoveries.
The current 3-year annualized return of 32.5% is significantly higher than the firm's long-term historical average of 12.7%, suggesting a high risk of mean reversion where future returns may decelerate as the valuation multiple reaches its upper historical bounds.
The primary concern is the divergence between the high RSI of 74.6 and the 1.2 Beta; if a macro-driven market correction occurs, the stock's overextended technical position could lead to a rapid 10-15% retracement as institutional algorithms trigger profit-taking to rebalance risk.
The 22.5% 3Y CAGR reflects a structural shift in Morgan Stanley's revenue mix toward asset-gathering businesses, providing a valuation premium over peers who remain more dependent on volatile trading and deal-making volumes.
The 38% delta between Gross Margin (57.1%) and Operating Margin (19.1%) highlights a heavy fixed-cost base; any significant downturn in market volumes could lead to rapid operating deleverage and margin compression.
Morgan Stanley nearly doubled its ROE to 15.1% by optimizing asset velocity and leverage, proving that the firm can deliver Tier-1 returns even as competitive pressures and higher funding costs compress net profit margins.
| Year | ROE% | Margin% | Turnover | Leverage | ROIC% | ROCE% | ROA% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 0.08 | 12.72 | 18.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 0.08 | 11.63 | 3.7 | 1.1 | |
| 2023 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 0.07 | 12.05 | 2.6 | 0.8 | |
| 2022 | 11.0 | 17.7 | 0.05 | 11.79 | 3.3 | 0.9 | |
| 2021 | 14.3 | 26.0 | 0.05 | 11.27 | 4.7 | 1.3 | |
| 2020 | 10.8 | 22.1 | 0.04 | 10.96 | 3.6 | 1.0 | |
| 2019 | 11.1 | 17.6 | 0.06 | 10.98 | 3.3 | 1.0 | |
| 2018 | 10.9 | 18.3 | 0.06 | 10.64 | 3.4 | 1.0 | |
| 2017 | 7.9 | 14.7 | 0.05 | 11.01 | 3.1 | 0.7 | |
| 2016 | 7.9 | 16.6 | 0.04 | 10.72 | 2.8 | 0.7 | |
| 2015 | 8.1 | 17.0 | 0.05 | 10.47 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
The 2.3% drop in net margin (17.0% to 14.7%) serves as a critical warning that operational expenses or interest costs are growing faster than revenue, which could threaten capital efficiency if asset turnover plateaus.
| Year | Total Asset Days | Inventory Days | Receivables Days | Fixed Asset Days | Payables Days | Cash Conversion Cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4508 | 0 | 364 | 13 | 3072 | -2708 |
| 2024 | 4300 | 0 | 305 | 0 | 1402 | -1098 |
| 2023 | 4935 | 0 | 331 | 0 | 1991 | -1660 |
| 2022 | 6895 | 0 | 459 | 0 | 6282 | -5828 |
| 2021 | 7506 | 0 | 607 | 0 | 60833 | -60320 |
| 2020 | 8199 | 0 | 718 | 0 | 17980 | -17289 |
| 2019 | 6353 | 0 | 395 | 5748 | -5352 | |
| 2018 | 6518 | 0 | 407 | 6495 | -6091 | |
| 2017 | 7482 | 0 | 494 | 12290 | -11776 | |
| 2016 | 8256 | 0 | 471 | 0 | 20977 | -20487 |
| 2015 | 7983 | 0 | 460 | 65 | 24830 | -24382 |
| Year | Total Assets | Total Liabilities | Total Equity | Total Debt | Net Debt | Cash | Current Assets | Current Liabilities |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1420270M | $1307618M | $111632M | $475560M | $363865M | $111695M | $654691M | $559572M |
| 2024 | $1215071M | $1109643M | $104511M | $360488M | $284745M | $75743M | $487747M | $739491M |
| 2023 | $1193693M | $1093711M | $99038M | $339038M | $280377M | $58661M | $541995M | $747760M |
| 2022 | $1180231M | $1079000M | $100141M | $308750M | $216003M | $92747M | $546395M | $756752M |
| 2021 | $1188140M | $1081542M | $105441M | $305356M | $218518M | $86838M | $596368M | $772544M |
| 2020 | $1115862M | $1012713M | $101781M | $283529M | $216077M | $67452M | $571966M | $715643M |
| 2019 | $895429M | $812732M | $81549M | $261525M | $211866M | $49659M | $424476M | $556982M |
| 2018 | $853531M | $772125M | $80246M | $248887M | $197047M | $51840M | $410583M | $520208M |
| 2017 | $851733M | $773267M | $77391M | $260277M | $214113M | $46164M | $370359M | $515523M |
| 2016 | $814949M | $737772M | $76050M | $251724M | $208343M | $43381M | $364572M | $502252M |
| 2015 | $787465M | $711281M | $75182M | $221413M | $167330M | $54083M | $365784M | $481941M |
| Year | Operating CF | Investing CF | Financing CF | CapEx | Free Cash Flow | Buybacks | Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $48998M | $-144222M | $98314M | $-2898M | $46100M | $-5835M | $-6593M |
| 2024 | $1362M | $-29460M | $46756M | $-3462M | $-2100M | $-4199M | $-6138M |
| 2023 | $-33536M | $-3084M | $-2726M | $-3412M | $-36948M | $-6178M | $-5763M |
| 2022 | $-6397M | $-11632M | $22714M | $-3078M | $-9475M | $-10871M | $-5401M |
| 2021 | $33971M | $-49897M | $41547M | $-2308M | $31663M | $-12075M | $-4171M |
| 2020 | $-25231M | $-37898M | $83784M | $-1444M | $-26675M | $-1890M | $-2739M |
| 2019 | $40773M | $-33561M | $-11966M | $-1826M | $38947M | $-5954M | $-2627M |
| 2018 | $7305M | $-22881M | $24205M | $-1865M | $5440M | $-5566M | $-2375M |
| 2017 | $-4505M | $-12391M | $16261M | $-1629M | $-6134M | $-4292M | $-2085M |
| 2016 | $2447M | $-19508M | $7363M | $-1276M | $1171M | $-3933M | $-1746M |
| 2015 | $3674M | $-19995M | $24365M | $-1373M | $2301M | $-2773M | $-1455M |