Overview: Economic & Company Trends
Economic Environment
Interest Rates
Inflation (Year-over-Year Change)
Real GDP Growth (Annualized Quarterly Rate)
Unemployment Rate
Economic Indicators Summary
| Indicator | Current | Historical Avg | Percentile | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.72% | 2.00% | 71th | ↓ Falling |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.26% | 2.65% | 91th | ↑ Rising |
| 2-Year Treasury | 3.56% | 2.17% | 71th | ↑ Rising |
| CPI (All Items) YoY | 3.0% | 3.1% | 67th | → Stable |
| Core CPI YoY | 2.9% | 3.1% | 55th | → Stable |
| Real GDP Growth | 4.40% | 2.71% | 79th | ↑ Rising |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.40% | 4.65% | 60th | → Stable |
Company Fundamentals
Revenue & FCF Growth (YoY)
Operating & Net Margin
ROE & ROA
EPS Trend
Stock Performance
Rolling 12-Month Returns
Data period: 2015-01 to 2026-01
Macro Sensitivity & Exposure Analysis
Analysis based on 1 companies. 0 used regression (sign-stable), 0 used trait-based heuristics. Exposures classified by direction, strength, and confidence.
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
Company Characteristics
| Trait | Classification | Key Metric |
|---|---|---|
| Pricing Power | Medium | Gross Margin: 21.4% |
| Leverage | Medium | D/E: 0.62 |
| Cyclicality | High | Score: 95 |
| Duration | Short | Score: 15 |
Macro Sensitivity Profile
| Macro Variable | Direction | Strength | Confidence | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | ↑ Positive | High | Moderate | High positive cpi exposure |
| GDP | ↔ Mixed | Moderate | Unstable | Moderate mixed gdp exposure |
| RATES | ↑ Positive | High | Moderate | High positive rates exposure |
| UNEMPLOYMENT | ↓ Negative | High | Moderate | High negative unemployment exposure |
Level vs Change Sensitivity (Fundamentals)
Level: Performance in high-X environments | Change: Performance when X is rising
| Variable | Level Sensitivity | Change Sensitivity |
|---|---|---|
| CPI |
Positive (high)
Performs better in high-inflation environments (high)
|
Positive (high)
Benefits when inflation rises (high)
|
| RATES |
Positive (high)
Performs better in high-interest rate environments (high)
|
Positive (high)
Benefits when interest rates rise (high)
|
| GDP |
Neutral
No significant sensitivity to GDP levels
|
Negative (moderate)
Hurt when GDP rises (moderate)
|
| UNEMPLOYMENT |
Negative (high)
Performs worse in high-unemployment environments (high)
|
Negative (low)
Hurt when unemployment rises (low)
|
Macro Risks
- Cpi falling
- Rates falling
- Unemployment rising
Macro Tailwinds
- Cpi rising
- Rates rising
- Unemployment falling
Summary: HWM is positively exposed to inflation and positively exposed to interest rates. Key risks: cpi decreases, rates decreases.
Method: Mixed | Data: 43 quarters (2015Q1-2025Q3)