The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday released the third and final estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025. The report confirmed that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 0.7% during the final three months of the year. This figure is unchanged from the second estimate released in March but represents a significant deceleration from the 4.4% growth recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
The fourth-quarter performance was heavily influenced by a 43-day federal government shutdown that occurred between October and November 2025. According to the BEA, the shutdown led to a 16.7% plunge in federal government spending and investment, which subtracted approximately 1.16 percentage points from the headline GDP growth rate. While the advance estimate in February had initially pegged growth at 1.4%, subsequent revisions accounted for more pronounced declines in government output and exports resulting from the work stoppage.
Consumer spending, the primary engine of the U.S. economy, grew at a 2.0% annual rate in the fourth quarter. This was a slowdown from the 3.5% pace seen in the third quarter and was slightly lower than the initial 2.4% estimate. Business investment, excluding residential housing, increased at a 2.2% pace, down from 3.2% in the prior period. Exports fell at an annual rate of 3.3%, while imports also declined, providing a small technical offset in the final calculation. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which strips out trade and inventories to provide a clearer view of underlying demand, rose 1.9% in the quarter.
For the full year 2025, the U.S. economy grew by 2.1%. This marks a slowdown from the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023. The BEA noted that the annual increase primarily reflected gains in consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment, though these were tempered by the volatility of government outlays and a contraction in the first quarter of 2025. Current-dollar GDP increased 5.1% in 2025 to a level of $29.8 trillion, compared with an increase of 6.2% in 2024.
Inflation metrics within the GDP report remained largely consistent with previous estimates. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index—the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge—increased by 2.7%. These figures were released alongside the BEA’s separate report on February 2026 personal income and outlays, which provided a concurrent update on the price environment and consumer behavior following the late-year fiscal disruptions.
The April 9 release also marked a shift in the BEA’s data dissemination. Beginning with this third estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025, the agency has discontinued the provision of news release tables in PDF and Excel formats. Instead, the BEA has transitioned to a modernized system that directs users to interactive online data tables to reduce duplication and increase efficiency. This final report for the quarter also incorporated more comprehensive data on corporate profits and GDP by industry, which were not available in the earlier estimates.