On Friday, diplomats representing the Group of Seven (G7) – the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan – issued a joint statement that placed the expanding nuclear arsenals of Russia and China at the centre of their agenda for the upcoming review of the Treaty on the Non‑Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The declaration, posted on the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs website, said the group was “concerned with China’s and Russia’s significant nuclear weapons build‑up and modernisation.”
The remarks arrive just days before the opening of a month‑long conference in New York, scheduled to begin on 29 April, that will seek to revise the NPT for the first time since 1995. The gathering, formally known as the NPT Review Conference, brings together the 191 states parties to the treaty, which rests on three pillars: nuclear disarmament, non‑proliferation and the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The G7 statement pledged “to work with all states parties to achieve a successful review conference in 2026 and to pursue the broadest possible consensus on measures to reinforce the NPT regime across all its three pillars.”
The timing of the G7 warning reflects a confluence of geopolitical pressures that have heightened the perceived risk of a new arms race. In Moscow, the war in Ukraine has spurred a surge in defence spending, with the Russian Ministry of Defence reporting the deployment of new strategic missile systems such as the RS‑28 Sarmat “Satan” intercontinental ballistic missile and the development of hypersonic glide vehicles. Analysts estimate that Russia’s nuclear warhead stockpile, which the United States estimates at roughly 4,300 warheads, could increase by several hundred units over the next five years as older Soviet‑era weapons are retired and replaced with more sophisticated platforms.
Beijing, meanwhile, has been quietly expanding its nuclear posture. Official Chinese sources have not disclosed the size of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force’s arsenal, but satellite imagery and open‑source intelligence suggest the construction of new missile silos in the Xinjiang and Gansu regions, as well as the testing of the DF‑41 intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. The Chinese government, in statements to domestic media, has framed its modernisation as a “peaceful defence” measure, emphasizing the principle of “no first use” and the need to safeguard national sovereignty. The G7’s expression of concern therefore represents a rare coordinated critique from the West that directly references Beijing’s expanding capabilities.
The broader strategic context is defined by an intensifying rivalry between the United States and China across technology, trade and security domains. Washington has repeatedly warned that China’s advances in missile technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computing could erode the strategic stability that underpinned arms‑control agreements during the Cold War. In a recent policy briefing, the U.S. Department of State highlighted the importance of “multilateral strategic stability” as a cornerstone of its approach to great‑power competition, a phrase echoed in the G7 statement’s call for the United States to pursue such stability.
The war in Ukraine also casts a long shadow over the NPT review. European nations have argued that Russia’s use of conventional weapons, combined with its nuclear posturing, undermines the credibility of the non‑proliferation regime. At the same time, the conflict has prompted some non‑aligned states to reconsider the benefits of nuclear deterrence, potentially complicating consensus‑building at the conference. In Tehran, the Iranian government has continued to develop its own nuclear infrastructure, a factor the G7 noted as “multiple crises with nuclear dimensions.”
From an economic perspective, the escalation of nuclear modernisation programmes in Russia and China is likely to sustain high levels of defence procurement in both countries. Russian defence firms such as Roscosmos and the United Aircraft Corporation have reported record orders for strategic missile components, while Chinese state‑owned enterprises including China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) have secured contracts for new launch vehicles and warhead miniaturisation projects. The flow of capital into these sectors may have spill‑over effects on related industries, from advanced materials to electronics, and could influence global supply chains that already face strain from semiconductor shortages and geopolitical sanctions.
The G7’s statement also underscores a diplomatic nuance: while it condemns the perceived build‑up, it simultaneously affirms a willingness to engage with all parties. The phrase “strongly encourage the United States’ pursuit of multilateral strategic stability” signals an expectation that Washington will lead efforts to forge new frameworks, perhaps reviving discussions on a comprehensive test‑ban treaty or a new strategic arms‑reduction agreement that includes China, a country that has historically resisted such negotiations.
Chinese officials have not yet responded publicly to the G7 communiqué. In past statements, Beijing has stressed that its nuclear forces are “sufficient for self‑defence” and has warned against “external interference” in its sovereign security decisions. Business voices in China, particularly those linked to the state‑run aerospace sector, tend to echo this narrative, portraying the modernisation as a necessary response to an increasingly hostile international environment.
As the New York conference commences, the G7’s concerns are likely to shape the agenda, prompting vigorous debate over verification mechanisms, the pace of disarmament and the role of emerging technologies in future arms‑control regimes. Whether the review will produce concrete commitments or remain a symbolic reaffirmation of the NPT’s principles remains uncertain, but the heightened focus on Russian and Chinese capabilities signals that the nuclear non‑proliferation architecture is being tested by a new generation of strategic challenges.
The outcome of the 2026 NPT Review Conference will be watched closely by policymakers, investors and security analysts alike, as it will set the tone for how the international community manages the delicate balance between deterrence, disarmament and the peaceful use of nuclear energy in an era marked by great‑power competition and regional conflicts.