The Conference Board reported on March 19, 2026, that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States fell by 0.1 percent in January, reaching a level of 97.5. This latest decrease follows a 0.2 percent decline in December 2025 and marks the sixth consecutive monthly drop for the indicator. Despite the continued downward trajectory, the pace of the decline has moderated compared to the previous year. Over the six-month period ending in January 2026, the index fell by 1.3 percent—approximately a 2.6 percent annual rate—which is a less intense contraction than the 2.6 percent decline recorded during the prior six-month window from January to July 2025.
The January decline was primarily driven by a retreat in average consumer expectations for business conditions and a softening in building permits for new private housing units. Additionally, manufacturers' new orders for both nondefense capital goods and consumer goods contributed negatively to the overall index. These factors slightly more than offset positive contributions from other components, including average weekly manufacturing hours, the Leading Credit Index, the interest rate spread, and the S&P 500 Stock Index. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that while the topline index signals ongoing headwinds, the underlying strengths among its components have become more widespread. Seven out of the ten components in the index advanced on a six-month basis between July 2025 and January 2026. The diffusion index, which measures the dispersion of these changes, stood at 70 percent over this six-month span, suggesting that the breadth of weakness has narrowed significantly.
In conjunction with the LEI release, The Conference Board announced a downward revision to its 2026 real GDP growth forecast. The organization now expects the U.S. economy to expand by 2.0 percent year-over-year in 2026, a reduction of 0.1 percentage point from its previous estimate. This revised outlook suggests that growth in 2026 will be lower than the levels seen in 2025. The Conference Board indicated that this forecast adjustment accounts for emerging geopolitical risks that were not yet fully captured in the January LEI data, specifically citing the potential economic impact of the conflict in Iran and broader Middle Eastern instability, which may disrupt energy prices and global supply chains.
The report also provided updates on other composite indexes. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which measures current economic activity, rose by 0.3 percent in January to 115.3. All four of its components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—showed improvement during the month. The CEI's components are among the primary data points used to determine the timing of business cycle peaks and troughs. Meanwhile, the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased by 0.3 percent to 120.0, reversing a 0.2 percent decline in December. The six-month change for the lagging index turned positive at 0.5 percent for the first time since October 2025. Positive contributors to the LAG included commercial and industrial loans outstanding and the average duration of unemployment, while the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income acted as a drag.