The atmosphere at Hong Kong’s Foreign Correspondents’ Club this week was one of celebration. Diplomats, journalists and business leaders shared a five‑course South African wine tasting, a reminder that the city’s financial calendar continues unabated. Yet, just a few blocks away, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund were concluding their annual meetings with a stark warning: the risk of a broader Gulf conflict could "upend lives and livelihoods in the region and beyond." The joint communiqué, issued on April 23, 2026, singled out the escalating hostilities between Iran and Israel – dubbed Operation Epic Fury by Israeli officials – as a catalyst for both energy and food insecurity.
The immediate concern for policymakers is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes each day. Iranian forces have already threatened to block the passage, and naval skirmishes have raised the spectre of a full‑scale shutdown. While the media spotlight has largely focused on the humanitarian toll of the fighting and the impact on oil prices, a quieter but equally consequential crisis is gathering momentum: the disruption of the agricultural supply chain that depends on cheap energy.
Since the 1950s, the so‑called Green Revolution transformed food production across the developing world. Mechanised tractors, pumped irrigation systems and synthetic fertilisers – all energy‑intensive inputs – enabled yields to soar in regions that had previously been constrained by climate and soil quality. Adam Hanieh, a senior research fellow at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, explained to the Financial Times that "the link between energy security and food security became irreversible" once these technologies were adopted. "When you rely on diesel‑powered tractors, electricity‑driven pumps and nitrogen‑based fertilisers, any shock to the energy market reverberates directly through the food system," he wrote.
The current confrontation threatens that chain at several points. First, a reduction in oil exports from the Gulf would raise global fuel prices, increasing the cost of operating farm machinery and transporting inputs. Second, many fertiliser plants – particularly those producing ammonia and urea – draw a significant share of their power from natural gas, a commodity also sourced heavily from the Middle East. A spike in gas prices would push fertiliser costs upward, squeezing margins for farmers already facing volatile grain markets.
The knock‑on effects are already being felt in the world’s most food‑insecure regions. According to a briefing note circulated by the United Nations World Food Programme on April 22, the price of wheat in East Africa has risen 12 percent since the start of March, while maize prices in South Asia have climbed 9 percent over the same period. The note warned that "if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially or fully blocked for more than two months, the cumulative impact on fertiliser availability could push staple food prices beyond the affordability thresholds for millions of households."
African nations such as Ethiopia, Sudan and the Sahel states, which depend on imported fertiliser and have limited domestic energy generation capacity, are particularly vulnerable. In Asia, Bangladesh and the Philippines – both major rice importers – could see import bills swell as transport costs rise. The World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, released on April 24, projects that the combined effect of higher energy and food prices could push the number of people living in extreme poverty from 730 million to over 800 million by the end of 2026 if the conflict persists.
Chinese officials, whose trade routes traverse the Indian Ocean and whose food security strategy emphasizes diversified import sources, have expressed concern. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce told reporters in Beijing that China is "monitoring the situation closely and will take necessary measures to ensure stable supplies of agricultural inputs and commodities." The statement reflects a broader Chinese government narrative that frames the Middle East turmoil as a systemic risk to global supply chains, a view echoed by Hong Kong’s trade chambers that have warned local food processors of potential input shortages.
The United States and European Union have also signalled the strategic dimension of the crisis. In a joint press briefing on April 23, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the Strait of Hormuz as "a critical artery for the world’s energy and food systems," urging all parties to avoid actions that could jeopardise the flow of commerce. The European Commission’s Directorate‑General for Trade similarly highlighted the need for “contingency planning” among member‑state governments.
While diplomatic efforts to de‑escalate the confrontation continue, the timeline for any resolution remains uncertain. Analysts at the International Food Policy Research Institute caution that even a short‑term disruption can have lasting consequences because agricultural production cycles are not easily adjusted. A delay in fertiliser delivery during the planting season, for example, can reduce yields for an entire year, creating a lagged effect that persists long after the conflict ends.
For policymakers and market participants, the emerging picture is one of intertwined risks. Energy markets, traditionally viewed through the lens of oil price volatility, now demand a broader perspective that incorporates agricultural inputs, logistics and the livelihoods of billions who depend on affordable food. The World Bank/IMF joint statement, the UN food‑security briefings and the academic commentary from SOAS together underscore a simple but urgent truth: a war in the Middle East can quickly become a food crisis elsewhere, and the international community must act now to prevent that outcome.
The dinner at Hong Kong’s FCC may have seemed worlds apart from the battlefield, but the conversation there mirrors a growing consensus among global leaders – that the stability of energy routes and the resilience of food systems are inseparable. As the situation evolves, the focus will shift from headlines about missile strikes to the quieter, yet equally critical, question of whether the world can keep its plates full while the geopolitics of oil continue to churn.