The US Dollar is currently in a neutral but strengthening regime, with the DXY reaching 98.56 as of early March 2026. This recent appreciation of 1.46% over the past month reflects a shift in market sentiment that is beginning to weigh on domestic equity performance. Investors must now navigate a landscape where currency headwinds are impacting large-cap multinationals and driving significant sector rotations.
| Period | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | +0.92 | +0.94% |
| 1 Week | +0.84 | +0.86% |
| 1 Month | +1.42 | +1.46% |
| 3 Months | -0.31 | -0.32% |
| 52-Week Low | 95.82 | - |
| 52-Week High | 104.55 | - |
The US Dollar Index (DXY) currently sits at 98.56, positioned at the 60th historical percentile. Over the last month, the index has gained 1.42 points, marking a 1.46% increase that reverses some of the weakness seen over the last quarter. Despite this recent momentum, the DXY remains in the lower third of its 52-week range, which spans from 95.82 to 104.55. The FRED Broad Dollar Index also confirms this trend with a modest 0.26% monthly rise.
| Currency | Rate | 1W USD | 1M USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro (EURUSD) | 1.1691 | +0.72% | +0.76% |
| Yen (USDJPY) | 157.31 | +0.97% | +0.18% |
| Pound (GBPUSD) | 1.3400 | +0.68% | +0.97% |
| CAD (USDCAD) | 1.3673 | -0.17% | -0.22% |
| Krona (USDSEK) | 9.1492 | +1.08% | +2.85% |
| Franc (USDCHF) | 0.7786 | +0.65% | +0.12% |
Positive = USD strengthening vs that currency
The dollar's recent strength is broad-based, particularly against European currencies where it gained 0.76% against the Euro and 0.97% against the Pound. The most significant move occurred against the Swedish Krona, with the USD surging 2.85% over the last month. Gains against the Yen and Swiss Franc were more muted, at 0.18% and 0.12% respectively, suggesting some safe-haven demand remains. Interestingly, the Canadian Dollar was the lone outlier, with the USD weakening by 0.22% against its northern neighbor.
The current strengthening of the dollar is likely driven by shifting interest rate differentials and a pivot in global risk sentiment. As the DXY moves 1.46% higher in a month, it suggests capital flows are favoring US assets despite a 1.3% dip in the S&P 500. The divergence between the dollar's rise and the decline in technology stocks indicates a move toward defensive positioning. Market participants are likely weighing Fed policy expectations against a backdrop of resilient domestic growth.
| Horizon | DXY Chg | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | -0.0% | +1.9% |
| 3 Months | +0.6% | +5.0% |
| 6 Months | - | +6.6% |
Historical analysis of eight similar periods where the DXY was near 98.56 provides a constructive outlook for equities. In these instances, the S&P 500 saw a median three-month forward return of +5.0%, with positive outcomes occurring 64% of the time. However, the range of outcomes is wide, spanning from a 15.7% loss to a 15.9% gain. During these historical windows, the DXY itself tended to remain relatively stable, with a median forward change of just +0.6%. This suggests that while the dollar may stay firm, it often does not prevent equity market appreciation.
| Sector | 1M | VS S&P 500 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | +12.9% | +14.2% | +27.6% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +9.3% | +10.6% | +11.0% |
| Cons Staples (XLP) | +8.0% | +9.3% | +14.2% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +7.9% | +9.1% | +15.3% |
| Materials (XLB) | +6.5% | +7.8% | +17.4% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +6.2% | +7.4% | +8.8% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +3.1% | +4.3% | +2.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -1.1% | +0.1% | +0.6% |
| Communication (XLC) | -1.6% | -0.3% | +0.1% |
| Financials (XLF) | -4.2% | -2.9% | -6.3% |
| Cons Disc (XLY) | -4.8% | -3.5% | -3.3% |
| Technology (XLK) | -5.0% | -3.7% | -3.1% |
| Stock | Price | 1M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT Caterpillar | $752.32 | +13.1% | +73.5% | +123.8% | +31.3% |
| TGT Target | $113.17 | +10.0% | +16.9% | -5.5% | +15.8% |
| XOM ExxonMobil | $154.22 | +9.8% | +36.1% | +42.6% | +28.2% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $248.56 | +9.4% | +41.7% | +54.2% | +20.1% |
| KO Coca-Cola | $80.22 | +9.2% | +18.2% | +15.7% | +14.7% |
| PG Procter & Gamble | $163.51 | +9.1% | +5.8% | -3.0% | +14.1% |
| WMT Walmart | $127.10 | +8.3% | +32.2% | +32.3% | +14.1% |
| COST Costco | $1002.77 | +5.4% | +6.3% | -1.5% | +16.3% |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan | $68.29 | +4.9% | +54.5% | +84.6% | +34.5% |
| MMM 3M | $161.46 | +3.2% | +2.5% | +8.3% | +0.8% |
| UUP Dollar Bull ETF | $27.33 | +2.8% | +3.2% | -3.4% | +1.1% |
| AAPL Apple | $264.72 | +2.5% | +13.8% | +11.8% | -2.6% |
| EEM EM Equity ETF | $61.50 | +1.8% | +24.5% | +43.8% | +12.4% |
| NEM Newmont | $128.73 | +1.4% | +77.0% | +209.9% | +28.9% |
| HD Home Depot | $370.81 | -0.3% | -8.5% | -3.2% | +7.8% |
| GLD Gold ETF | $490.00 | -1.2% | +55.5% | +85.0% | +23.6% |
| NVDA NVIDIA | $182.48 | -5.2% | +1.3% | +51.9% | -2.2% |
| INTC Intel | $45.50 | -6.5% | +82.5% | +97.1% | +23.3% |
| MSFT Microsoft | $398.55 | -8.1% | -21.8% | +1.9% | -17.6% |
| GOOGL Alphabet | $306.52 | -9.4% | +45.0% | +82.5% | -2.1% |
| CRM Salesforce | $192.95 | -9.9% | -24.1% | -34.2% | -27.2% |
| META Meta Platforms | $653.56 | -11.5% | -12.9% | -0.5% | -1.0% |
The stronger dollar is clearly impacting sector performance, with the S&P 500 falling 1.3% over the last month. Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have been hit hardest, falling 5.0% and 4.8% respectively as currency translation eats into multinational earnings. Conversely, Energy and Utilities have outperformed significantly, gaining 12.9% and 9.3%. The spread between importers and exporters remains narrow, but the heavy losses in tech suggest large-cap exporters are feeling the most pressure.
Investors should consider tilting toward domestic-oriented value sectors like Utilities and Energy which have shown resilience during this dollar upswing. With the DXY at 98.56, monitoring the 100 level is critical, as historical parallels show this as a frequent resistance point. Large-cap technology remains vulnerable to further dollar appreciation, making a temporary shift toward mid-caps or domestic cyclicals prudent. Hedging international exposure may also be warranted if the DXY continues its climb toward the upper end of its 52-week range.