All-Loan Delinquency Rate
1.48% ▼
Normal · QoQ: -0.01 ppt
Delinquency rates measure the percentage of loans where borrowers are behind on payments, typically 30 days or more. Charge-off rates, on the other hand, represent the percentage of loans that lenders have written off as uncollectible losses. These metrics are key indicators of overall credit health.
Delinquency & Charge-Off Rates
Delinquency Rates (30+ Days Past Due)
| Category |
Rate |
QoQ Chg |
YoY Chg |
| All Loans |
1.48% |
-0.01 |
-0.05 |
| Business Loans |
1.34% |
+0.01 |
+0.07 |
| Single-Family RE |
1.78% |
+0.00 |
+0.01 |
Charge-Off Rates (Losses)
| Category |
Rate |
QoQ Chg |
YoY Chg |
| All Loans |
0.58% |
-0.04 |
-0.07 |
| Credit Cards |
4.11% |
-0.07 |
-0.47 |
| Business Loans |
0.55% |
-0.02 |
+0.04 |
| Consumer Loans |
2.81% |
-0.08 |
-0.17 |
In Q4 2025, the delinquency rate for all commercial bank loans stood at 1.48%, showing a slight quarter-over-quarter decrease of 0.01 percentage points. Charge-off rates for all loans also declined to 0.58%, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter. While business loan delinquencies saw a minor increase, credit card and consumer loan charge-off rates experienced notable declines, indicating improving performance in these segments. Single-family residential real estate delinquencies remained stable.
Credit Quality Regime
The current credit quality regime is categorized as "Normal" with a "stable" trend. This stability follows a streak of three consecutive quarters where overall credit quality has been falling, suggesting a potential bottoming or stabilization. The credit card charge-off rate, a key consumer health indicator, is 4.11%.
Credit Quality Trend (Quarterly)
Historical Parallels
| Quarter | Rate | 2Q Later | 4Q Later |
|---|
| 2024 Q4 |
1.53% |
1.51% |
1.48% |
| 2024 Q3 |
1.52% |
1.55% |
1.49% |
| 2024 Q2 |
1.49% |
1.53% |
1.51% |
| 2024 Q1 |
1.43% |
1.52% |
1.55% |
| 2023 Q4 |
1.38% |
1.49% |
1.53% |
Historically, similar delinquency periods have been observed 21 times. Looking forward, the average delinquency rate two quarters later was 1.50%, and four quarters later it was 1.51%. This suggests that current delinquency levels tend to remain relatively stable or see only minor increases in the near to medium term.
Market Snapshot
Note: Charge-off and delinquency data is a quarterly, lagged indicator. Market moves shown below reflect broad conditions and are not necessarily driven by this release.
Market Snapshot
Top Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| TRINZ Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes due 2029 |
+247.87% |
-71.2% |
| OXLCI Oxford Lane Capital Corp. |
+220.75% |
-68.8% |
| NMFCZ New Mountain Finance Corporation 8.250% Notes due 2028 |
+219.39% |
-68.7% |
| ADAMI Adamas Trust, Inc. |
+194.87% |
-66.1% |
| MFAN MFA Financial, Inc. 8.875% Senior Notes |
+191.87% |
-65.6% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| OLMA Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
-37.17% |
-18.2% |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 6.625 NT 2046 |
-14.94% |
+10.5% |
| ORIC ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
-13.84% |
+29.2% |
| SLMBP SLM Corporation |
-10.00% |
+0.0% |
| AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. |
-9.80% |
+31.7% |
The broader market context shows the S&P 500 at $6740, experiencing a 2.1% decline over the last month. While credit quality indicators are inherently lagged, the current stable to improving credit metrics could offer some underlying support to market sentiment, despite recent equity market weakness.
Sector Performance
Sector Performance
| ETF |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XLF Financials |
$50.57 |
-0.26% |
-6.3% |
-5.8% |
+2.1% |
-7.7% |
-4.2% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary |
$114.44 |
-1.30% |
-4.7% |
-2.3% |
+9.2% |
-4.2% |
-2.6% |
| XLP Consumer Staples |
$85.78 |
-1.00% |
-1.4% |
+8.0% |
+6.9% |
+10.4% |
+0.7% |
| XLI Industrials |
$169.94 |
-1.10% |
+0.3% |
+13.0% |
+28.7% |
+9.6% |
+2.4% |
Consumer Credit & Bank Stocks
Consumer Credit & Bank Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| ALLY Ally Financial |
$38.07 |
+2.02% |
-12.2% |
-7.7% |
+9.9% |
-15.9% |
-10.1% |
| BAC Bank of America |
$48.64 |
-0.18% |
-12.2% |
-3.4% |
+17.1% |
-11.6% |
-10.1% |
| TRU TransUnion |
$77.38 |
-1.25% |
+11.3% |
-13.1% |
-13.8% |
-9.8% |
+13.4% |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase |
$289.40 |
-1.35% |
-8.8% |
-4.3% |
+16.9% |
-9.8% |
-6.7% |
| EFX Equifax |
$207.83 |
-1.42% |
+14.8% |
-13.6% |
-14.8% |
-4.2% |
+16.9% |
| C Citigroup |
$106.53 |
-1.95% |
-9.3% |
+10.4% |
+49.0% |
-8.7% |
-7.2% |
| AXP American Express |
$301.00 |
-2.15% |
-14.9% |
-8.7% |
+6.8% |
-18.5% |
-12.8% |
| SYF Synchrony Financial |
$66.67 |
-2.40% |
-11.0% |
-12.9% |
+21.1% |
-20.1% |
-8.9% |
| COF Capital One |
$187.71 |
-2.45% |
-16.7% |
-17.1% |
+1.5% |
-22.5% |
-14.7% |
Improving credit quality, marked by falling charge-off rates and stable delinquencies, typically bodes well for bank and consumer finance stocks. Lower loan losses directly translate to better profitability for lenders, potentially boosting investor confidence in the sector.
Positioning
Given the "Normal" credit regime and stable to improving credit trends, investors might consider a neutral to slightly positive stance on bank and credit-sensitive stocks. While the S&P 500 has seen a recent dip, the underlying credit health suggests a more resilient environment for lenders. Selective opportunities may arise in institutions with strong underwriting and diversified loan portfolios.