Policy Uncertainty Index (Daily)
306 ▼
Extreme · Day Chg: -244.1
The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index measures policy-related economic stress by analyzing news coverage, tax code expirations, and economic forecaster disagreement. High readings suggest that businesses and investors are struggling to predict future government actions and regulatory shifts.
Policy Uncertainty Index
EPU Index Summary
| Measure |
Level |
1D Chg |
1W Chg |
1M Chg |
| Daily EPU |
306 |
-244 |
-143 |
-234 |
| Monthly EPU |
262 |
— |
— |
+61 |
| News-Based EPU |
386 |
— |
— |
— |
As of March 12, 2026, the Daily EPU Index stands at 306.0, reflecting a significant daily drop of 244.1 points but maintaining an overall rising trend. The 7-day moving average of 507.8 remains elevated, significantly higher than the 30-day average of 395.6. News-based uncertainty is particularly high at 386.0, driving the current Extreme Uncertainty regime.
Uncertainty Regime
Uncertainty
Extreme Uncertainty
The current regime is classified as Extreme Uncertainty with a rising trend, indicating a period of heightened instability. This level is substantially above historical norms, suggesting that policy-related risks are a primary driver of current economic conditions.
Policy Uncertainty Trend (Daily)
Historical Parallels
| Month | EPU | 3M Later | 6M Later |
|---|
| Oct 2025 |
218 |
262 |
N/A |
| Sep 2025 |
224 |
201 |
N/A |
| Aug 2025 |
254 |
219 |
N/A |
| Jul 2025 |
252 |
218 |
262 |
| Jun 2025 |
254 |
224 |
201 |
Analysis of seven similar historical periods shows that EPU levels typically moderate over time, averaging 248.8 three months later and 235.4 six months later. These parallels suggest that while current stress is high, a gradual reversion toward the mean is the historical precedent.
Market Snapshot
Note: The EPU Index measures policy-related uncertainty from news coverage and forecaster disagreement. It is not a market-moving release — market data below reflects broad conditions.
Market Snapshot
Top Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| VEON VEON Ltd. |
+17.36% |
-18.1% |
| AERO Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. |
+15.55% |
-27.8% |
| KMTS KESTRA MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES, LTD. |
+13.99% |
-30.3% |
| NBTX Nanobiotix S.A. |
+11.93% |
+19.3% |
| ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation |
+11.08% |
-20.4% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| EVCM EverCommerce Inc. |
-24.81% |
+14.1% |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. |
-9.35% |
-8.0% |
| PUMP ProPetro Holding Corp. |
-9.17% |
+29.2% |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. |
-7.77% |
+1.9% |
| HUN Huntsman Corporation |
-7.58% |
-5.9% |
The S&P 500 has retreated 3.9% over the past month to $6673, coinciding with the surge in policy uncertainty. While the EPU is not a direct market-moving release, the negative correlation highlights how policy fog can dampen investor appetite for risk.
Defensive Sector Performance
Defensive Sector Performance
| ETF |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XLU Utilities |
$46.50 |
-1.08% |
+5.2% |
+11.5% |
+23.6% |
+8.9% |
+9.1% |
| XLP Consumer Staples |
$84.25 |
+0.55% |
-3.3% |
+7.0% |
+6.2% |
+8.5% |
+0.6% |
| XLV Health Care |
$150.16 |
+1.19% |
-3.3% |
+10.3% |
+4.6% |
-3.0% |
+0.5% |
| XLRE Real Estate |
$42.14 |
-0.17% |
-1.6% |
+2.6% |
+4.7% |
+4.4% |
+2.2% |
Defensive & Policy-Sensitive Stocks
Defensive & Policy-Sensitive Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| RTX RTX Corp |
$203.04 |
+1.55% |
+4.0% |
+31.0% |
+60.0% |
+10.7% |
+7.9% |
| PG Procter & Gamble |
$150.50 |
+1.14% |
-5.4% |
-3.7% |
-11.3% |
+5.0% |
-1.5% |
| GIS General Mills |
$39.40 |
+1.12% |
-19.0% |
-20.2% |
-34.5% |
-15.3% |
-15.2% |
| NEE NextEra Energy |
$91.75 |
+1.07% |
+1.0% |
+29.2% |
+25.9% |
+14.3% |
+4.9% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson |
$242.04 |
+0.90% |
+1.5% |
+37.7% |
+48.3% |
+17.0% |
+5.4% |
| LMT Lockheed Martin |
$652.83 |
+0.32% |
+3.7% |
+40.7% |
+41.2% |
+35.0% |
+7.6% |
| WMT Walmart |
$125.33 |
+0.10% |
-1.1% |
+24.8% |
+44.4% |
+12.5% |
+2.8% |
| KO Coca-Cola |
$77.61 |
-0.24% |
+1.0% |
+15.3% |
+11.7% |
+11.0% |
+4.9% |
| ED Consolidated Edison |
$113.13 |
-1.24% |
+4.3% |
+16.5% |
+10.9% |
+13.9% |
+8.2% |
| SO Southern Company |
$97.84 |
-1.69% |
+8.7% |
+6.9% |
+10.4% |
+12.2% |
+12.6% |
In this environment of extreme uncertainty, defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples often outperform more sensitive cyclical stocks. Investors may favor companies with strong balance sheets and predictable cash flows until policy clarity improves.
Positioning
Given the rising trend in uncertainty, investors may consider defensive positioning and volatility hedging strategies to protect portfolios. Reducing exposure to policy-sensitive industries and maintaining a focus on high-quality assets can help mitigate the impact of ongoing economic fluctuations.