General Business Conditions
-0.2 ▼
Contraction
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly indicator of business activity in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It serves as one of the earliest monthly snapshots of the manufacturing sector, providing a critical preview of the national ISM Manufacturing PMI. Investors track this data to gauge regional economic health and identify shifts in supply chain costs and labor demand.
Survey Components
Current Conditions
| Component |
Value |
MoM |
Signal |
| General Business Conditions |
-0.2 |
-7.3 |
Contraction |
| New Orders |
+6.4 |
+0.6 |
Expansion |
| Shipments |
-6.9 |
-5.9 |
Contraction |
| Employment |
+5.8 |
+1.8 |
Expansion |
| Prices Paid |
+36.6 |
-12.5 |
Strong Expansion |
| Prices Received |
+21.4 |
-0.8 |
Strong Expansion |
Future Expectations (6-Month)
| Component |
Value |
MoM |
| Future Activity |
+31.0 |
-3.7 |
| Future New Orders |
+29.1 |
-5.8 |
| Future Employment |
+22.2 |
-3.9 |
The general business conditions index fell 7.3 points to -0.2 in March, marking a return to contractionary territory. Despite the headline dip, new orders edged higher to 6.4 and employment grew to 5.8, suggesting underlying demand remains stable. However, a sharp decline in shipments to -6.9 indicates near-term logistical or production bottlenecks are weighing on current output.
Regime Analysis
The manufacturing regime is currently deteriorating, entering its first month of contraction following a period of mixed performance over the last year. With only six expansion months in the past twelve, the sector remains in a volatile state, currently sitting at the 54th percentile of historical readings. This suggests a fragile recovery that lacks the momentum seen in previous cyclical upswings.
Historical Parallels
| Date | Reading | 3M Later | 6M Later |
|---|
| Feb 2025 |
4.3 |
-6.9 |
9.1 |
| Dec 2024 |
2.2 |
-15.7 |
-14.9 |
| Sep 2024 |
3.8 |
2.2 |
-15.7 |
| Aug 2024 |
0.1 |
16.8 |
4.3 |
| Mar 2024 |
-4.7 |
-6.5 |
3.8 |
Historical analysis of 23 similar periods suggests a modest recovery in the short term, with the index averaging 0.8 three months later. However, the six-month outlook is more concerning, as historical parallels show an average decline back to -4.0. Investors should watch for a potential dead cat bounce in manufacturing activity before a deeper cyclical slowdown takes hold.
Market Snapshot
Note: The Empire State Survey is a mid-tier indicator. Market moves shown below reflect broad conditions and are not necessarily driven by this release.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Today's Gap |
|---|
| S&P 500 |
+0.64% |
| Nasdaq 100 |
+0.00% |
| Dow Jones |
+0.32% |
| Russell 2000 |
+0.79% |
Top Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF |
+11.73% |
-24.8% |
| NBIS Nebius Group N.V. |
+10.62% |
+27.5% |
| USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation |
+9.10% |
-9.0% |
| MIR Mirion Technologies, Inc. |
+8.77% |
-11.2% |
| ALNT Allient Inc. |
+8.49% |
-5.0% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. |
-16.69% |
+13.7% |
| IPX IperionX Limited |
-10.41% |
-20.9% |
| KYIV Kyivstar Group Ltd. Common Shares |
-7.14% |
-13.6% |
| S SentinelOne, Inc. |
-7.02% |
+6.6% |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation |
-6.00% |
+8.6% |
The S&P 500 remains under pressure, down 4.5% over the past month to $6632, as investors weigh cooling manufacturing data against broader macroeconomic headwinds. While this mid-tier survey rarely drives major market swings, the contractionary headline adds to the cautious sentiment currently prevailing in the equity markets.
Sector Performance
Sector Performance
| ETF |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XLI Industrials |
$164.65 |
+1.00% |
-5.8% |
+8.6% |
+28.3% |
+6.1% |
-1.4% |
| XLB Materials |
$49.19 |
+1.71% |
-8.3% |
+7.3% |
+18.1% |
+8.5% |
-3.8% |
| XLE Energy |
$57.70 |
-0.35% |
+4.9% |
+31.7% |
+35.8% |
+29.1% |
+9.4% |
| XLK Technology |
$136.80 |
+1.73% |
-4.3% |
+1.2% |
+30.1% |
-5.0% |
+0.1% |
Manufacturing & Industrial Stocks
Manufacturing & Industrial Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| GE GE Aerospace |
$299.69 |
+2.56% |
-4.5% |
+6.6% |
+54.1% |
-2.7% |
-0.0% |
| PH Parker-Hannifin |
$889.86 |
+1.86% |
-10.6% |
+15.9% |
+46.2% |
+1.2% |
-6.2% |
| CAT Caterpillar |
$693.99 |
+1.64% |
-10.5% |
+61.3% |
+107.6% |
+21.1% |
-6.0% |
| URI United Rentals |
$737.22 |
+1.40% |
-15.6% |
-23.2% |
+21.5% |
-8.9% |
-11.2% |
| CMI Cummins |
$535.71 |
+1.12% |
-10.6% |
+30.3% |
+63.7% |
+4.9% |
-6.1% |
| EMR Emerson Electric |
$132.24 |
+1.07% |
-14.2% |
-3.8% |
+20.3% |
-0.4% |
-9.7% |
| PCAR PACCAR |
$115.34 |
+0.77% |
-10.9% |
+13.3% |
+13.5% |
+5.3% |
-6.5% |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works |
$266.99 |
+0.73% |
-10.4% |
+0.9% |
+8.2% |
+8.4% |
-6.0% |
| HON Honeywell |
$234.50 |
+0.21% |
-3.4% |
+8.9% |
+14.8% |
+20.2% |
+1.1% |
| DE Deere & Co |
$577.50 |
+0.15% |
-5.7% |
+21.6% |
+23.8% |
+24.0% |
-1.3% |
| ROK Rockwell Automation |
$360.96 |
+0.00% |
-11.3% |
+3.0% |
+38.9% |
-7.2% |
-6.8% |
| ETN Eaton Corp |
$355.40 |
-1.18% |
-10.3% |
-1.0% |
+22.8% |
+11.6% |
-5.8% |
The dip in shipments and headline contraction could weigh on industrial heavyweights like Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) if production delays persist. Conversely, the resilience in new orders provides a silver lining for diversified industrials such as Honeywell (HON), Emerson Electric (EMR), and GE Aerospace. Power management firms like Eaton (ETN) may benefit from the sustained employment and future demand signals. Sector ETFs like the XLI and XLB will likely remain range-bound until shipments align more closely with the positive future expectations.
Positioning
Investors should maintain a neutral stance on industrials and cyclicals, favoring companies with strong backlogs that can weather temporary shipment disruptions. A sustained move in new orders above 10.0 would be the necessary signal to shift toward a more aggressive overweight position in materials and manufacturing. For now, focus on high-quality names within the XLI that demonstrate pricing power as input costs remain elevated.