The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a neutral but strengthening regime, showing a notable gain over the past month. This dollar strength has implications across global markets, influencing currency valuations and sector performance within equities. Investors should consider the historical context of similar dollar environments to gauge potential forward returns for both the dollar and broader equity markets.
| Period | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | -0.12 | -0.12% |
| 1 Week | -0.32 | -0.32% |
| 1 Month | +1.86 | +1.92% |
| 3 Months | +0.73 | +0.75% |
| 52-Week Low | 95.82 | - |
| 52-Week High | 104.55 | - |
The US Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 98.74 as of March 09, 2026, indicating a neutral but strengthening regime. Over the last month, the DXY has gained +1.86%, or +1.92%, despite a slight 1-week decline of -0.32%. Its current position is 33% from its 52-week low of 95.82, within a range that extends up to 104.55. Historically, the DXY is at the 61st percentile, suggesting it's above its long-term average.
| Currency | Rate | 1W USD | 1M USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro (EURUSD) | 1.1635 | -0.20% | +1.98% |
| Yen (USDJPY) | 157.71 | +0.11% | +3.26% |
| Pound (GBPUSD) | 1.3435 | -0.64% | +1.36% |
| CAD (USDCAD) | 1.3579 | -0.71% | -0.21% |
| Krona (USDSEK) | 9.1253 | -1.38% | +2.63% |
| Franc (USDCHF) | 0.7767 | -0.59% | +0.95% |
Positive = USD strengthening vs that currency
The dollar has shown broad-based strength against most major currencies over the past month. The Yen (USDJPY) has seen the most significant move, with the USD appreciating by ++3.26%. The Euro (EURUSD) and Swedish Krona (USDSEK) also experienced substantial dollar appreciation of ++1.98% and ++2.63% respectively. The Pound (GBPUSD) and Swiss Franc (USDCHF) saw more modest dollar gains of ++1.36% and ++0.95%. The Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) was the outlier, with the USD depreciating slightly by -0.21%.
While specific drivers like Fed policy or rate differentials are not explicitly provided, the broad-based strengthening of the USD against most major currencies suggests underlying factors supporting the dollar. The significant appreciation against the Yen, Euro, and Krona points to potentially widening interest rate differentials or stronger economic sentiment favoring the US. The slight depreciation against the CAD could indicate specific regional factors or commodity price influences.
| Horizon | DXY Chg | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | -0.1% | +2.0% |
| 3 Months | +0.6% | +5.1% |
| 6 Months | - | +6.2% |
Analyzing historical periods where the DXY was within 2% of its current level (98.74), eight similar instances were identified, ranging from 97.79 to 100.58. In these parallel periods, the S&P 500's 3-month forward return had a median of +5.1%, with a wide range from -14.4% to +17.5%. Notably, the S&P 500 showed positive returns 62% of the time. The DXY itself had a median 3-month forward change of +0.6% in these similar environments, suggesting a tendency for continued, albeit modest, dollar strengthening.
| Sector | 1M | VS S&P 500 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities (XLU) | +8.7% | +8.7% | +9.7% |
| Energy (XLE) | +7.9% | +7.9% | +26.0% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +4.2% | +4.3% | +6.5% |
| Technology (XLK) | +3.0% | +3.1% | -2.9% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +1.5% | +1.6% | +10.2% |
| Communication (XLC) | +1.2% | +1.2% | -0.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +0.1% | +0.1% | -0.5% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Materials (XLB) | -1.0% | -1.0% | +10.2% |
| Cons Staples (XLP) | -1.1% | -1.1% | +10.7% |
| Cons Disc (XLY) | -2.5% | -2.4% | -4.0% |
| Financials (XLF) | -5.6% | -5.5% | -8.1% |
| Stock | Price | 1M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT Target | $120.14 | +8.4% | +28.9% | +7.7% | +22.9% |
| NEM Newmont | $116.96 | +7.8% | +53.6% | +168.4% | +17.1% |
| GLD Gold ETF | $472.53 | +6.9% | +42.7% | +76.2% | +19.2% |
| NVDA NVIDIA | $182.65 | +6.3% | +9.4% | +65.2% | -2.1% |
| CRM Salesforce | $198.79 | +4.6% | -20.6% | -30.2% | -25.0% |
| MSFT Microsoft | $409.41 | +4.0% | -17.3% | +3.5% | -15.3% |
| CAT Caterpillar | $704.82 | +3.9% | +67.1% | +109.0% | +23.0% |
| XOM ExxonMobil | $150.44 | +3.0% | +37.7% | +42.4% | +25.0% |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan | $60.49 | +2.1% | +31.0% | +62.3% | +19.1% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $242.59 | +2.0% | +36.0% | +48.6% | +17.2% |
| COST Costco | $1005.30 | +1.6% | +4.5% | -1.7% | +16.6% |
| UUP Dollar Bull ETF | $27.46 | +1.4% | +3.7% | -0.3% | +1.6% |
| EEM EM Equity ETF | $58.45 | -0.1% | +17.5% | +35.4% | +6.8% |
| KO Coca-Cola | $77.80 | -0.9% | +15.4% | +12.9% | +11.3% |
| WMT Walmart | $124.34 | -2.0% | +23.7% | +32.4% | +11.6% |
| PG Procter & Gamble | $155.22 | -2.1% | -2.3% | -9.3% | +8.3% |
| META Meta Platforms | $647.39 | -3.4% | -13.9% | +3.3% | -1.9% |
| INTC Intel | $45.58 | -5.5% | +86.1% | +119.7% | +23.5% |
| AAPL Apple | $259.88 | -5.7% | +8.4% | +10.7% | -4.4% |
| GOOGL Alphabet | $306.36 | -7.5% | +30.5% | +78.3% | -2.1% |
| HD Home Depot | $353.56 | -7.5% | -15.6% | -5.7% | +2.7% |
| MMM 3M | $151.63 | -8.1% | -2.4% | +4.2% | -5.3% |
The dollar's strengthening trend has implications for equity sector performance. Over the last month, Exporters (XLB, XLE, XLI, XLK) have outperformed Importers (XLY, XLP, XLU), with an average gain of +2.9% compared to +1.7%, resulting in a spread of -1.1%. This suggests that a stronger dollar may be benefiting companies with significant international revenue streams. Utilities and Energy sectors showed the strongest 1-month returns, while Financials and Consumer Discretionary lagged significantly.
Given the neutral but strengthening dollar regime and historical parallels, investors might consider tilting portfolios towards sectors that benefit from a stronger dollar, such as exporters. The S&P 500's median 3-month forward return of +5.1% in similar DXY environments suggests a generally positive outlook for equities, though the wide range indicates potential volatility. Monitoring key levels for the DXY and major currency pairs will be crucial, especially given the current 33% position from its 52-week low. Hedging strategies for international exposures could also be considered.