Total Building Permits (SAAR)
1376K ▼
Building permits represent the number of new housing units authorized by local governments before construction begins. As a forward-looking indicator, they signal future housing starts and overall economic health. They are a critical component of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) because they reflect developer confidence and future investment.
Permits Breakdown
National Overview
| Component |
Value (K) |
MoM |
YoY |
| Total Permits |
1376 |
-5.4% |
-5.8% |
| Single-Family |
873 |
-0.9% |
-11.6% |
| Housing Starts (Context) |
1487 |
+7.2% |
+9.5% |
| SF Starts (Context) |
935 |
-2.8% |
-6.5% |
Regional Permits
| Region |
Value (K) |
YoY |
| Northeast |
151 |
+13.5% |
| Midwest |
229 |
+4.1% |
| South |
691 |
-13.2% |
| West |
305 |
-1.9% |
Total permits fell 5.4% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1376K, trailing the 1487K housing starts recorded during the month. Single-family permits showed relative stability with a minor 0.9% dip, while the broader decline was driven by multi-family volatility. The permits-to-starts ratio of 0.93 indicates that builders are currently breaking ground faster than they are securing new authorizations.
Regime Analysis
The current construction regime is classified as moderate, with the 1376K level sitting in the 23rd percentile of the past year's data. While the trend remains stable, the South saw a significant 13.2% year-over-year contraction, weighing heavily on national figures. The mix suggests a pivot away from multi-family projects as developers navigate a tightening pipeline and shifting regional demand.
Historical Parallels
| Date | Permits (K) | 3M Later | 6M Later |
|---|
| Oct 2024 |
1428 |
1460K |
1422K |
| Sep 2024 |
1434 |
1480K |
1481K |
| Jul 2024 |
1436 |
1428K |
1460K |
| May 2024 |
1407 |
1476K |
1508K |
| Jan 2023 |
1410 |
1474K |
1522K |
Analysis of 27 similar historical periods suggests that permit levels often find a floor near these readings. On average, permits have historically risen to 1390K three months later and 1411K six months later. This suggests that while the current month is soft, the medium-term trajectory for housing activity tends to skew toward a modest recovery.
Market Snapshot
Note: Building Permits is a mid-tier indicator. Market moves shown below reflect broad conditions and are not necessarily driven by this release.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Daily Chg |
|---|
| S&P 500 |
-3.9% (1M) |
Top Movers
| Stock | 1D | 1M |
|---|
| OXSQH Oxford Square Capital Corp. |
+224.93% |
-1.5% |
| AFGB American Financial Group, Inc. |
+217.20% |
-0.7% |
| CE Celanese Corporation |
+14.75% |
+2.2% |
| KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. |
+13.43% |
+42.5% |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. |
+13.21% |
+42.0% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | 1D | 1M |
|---|
| RHLD Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. |
-25.07% |
-43.3% |
| NTSK Netskope, Inc. Class A Common Stock |
-21.27% |
-21.8% |
| GSIW Garden Stage Limited Ordinary Shares |
-18.39% |
+13882.8% |
| IPX IperionX Limited |
-18.24% |
-7.5% |
| VEON VEON Ltd. |
-16.84% |
-18.1% |
As a mid-tier economic indicator, building permits rarely trigger massive volatility, and the S&P 500's recent 3.9% monthly decline reflects broader macroeconomic concerns. Investors should view this data as a secondary signal of consumer health rather than a primary driver of immediate equity price action.
Sector Performance
Sector Performance
| ETF |
Price |
1D |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XHB Homebuilders |
$100.08 |
-2.88% |
-16.8% |
-13.3% |
+2.1% |
-2.8% |
-13.0% |
| ITB Home Construction |
$92.64 |
-2.85% |
-17.6% |
-17.6% |
-3.3% |
-3.8% |
-13.8% |
| XLB Materials |
$49.68 |
-0.32% |
-6.1% |
+10.6% |
+18.8% |
+9.5% |
-2.2% |
| XLRE Real Estate |
$42.14 |
-0.64% |
-1.6% |
+2.6% |
+4.7% |
+4.4% |
+2.2% |
Homebuilder & Materials Stocks
Homebuilder & Materials Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| PHM PulteGroup |
$120.46 |
-2.37% |
-12.3% |
-10.9% |
+14.5% |
+2.7% |
-8.4% |
| HD Home Depot |
$338.93 |
-3.39% |
-13.0% |
-18.0% |
-6.3% |
-1.5% |
-9.1% |
| DHI D.R. Horton |
$139.04 |
-2.54% |
-14.3% |
-21.1% |
+5.5% |
-3.5% |
-10.4% |
| TOL Toll Brothers |
$138.02 |
-3.64% |
-14.4% |
-3.4% |
+30.1% |
+2.1% |
-10.6% |
| LOW Lowe's |
$239.45 |
-3.01% |
-15.9% |
-9.7% |
+4.5% |
-0.7% |
-12.0% |
| KBH KB Home |
$53.14 |
-2.80% |
-16.3% |
-19.0% |
-14.4% |
-5.8% |
-12.4% |
| MLM Martin Marietta |
$587.37 |
-1.71% |
-17.1% |
-4.8% |
+26.8% |
-5.7% |
-13.2% |
| MTH Meritage Homes |
$62.78 |
-3.76% |
-20.0% |
-19.6% |
-14.1% |
-4.6% |
-16.2% |
| VMC Vulcan Materials |
$263.81 |
-1.05% |
-20.1% |
-10.4% |
+17.8% |
-7.5% |
-16.2% |
| NVR NVR Inc |
$6447.30 |
-2.47% |
-20.3% |
-22.7% |
-12.4% |
-11.6% |
-16.5% |
| LEN Lennar |
$92.54 |
-4.17% |
-22.5% |
-32.0% |
-22.8% |
-10.0% |
-18.6% |
Lower permit volumes create a challenging backdrop for major homebuilders like D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), and PulteGroup (PHM), which rely on a steady pipeline to drive deliveries. Luxury builder Toll Brothers (TOL) may see less impact if high-end demand persists, while retailers like Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) face potential headwinds from slower future turnover. Investors should monitor the ITB and XHB ETFs for broader sector sentiment, as materials suppliers like Martin Marietta (MLM) and Vulcan Materials (VMC) are sensitive to these long-term volume shifts.
Positioning
Investors should maintain a neutral to cautious stance on housing-related equities until the permits-to-starts ratio stabilizes and regional weakness in the South abates. Actionable positioning involves favoring builders with strong balance sheets that can weather temporary pipeline contractions. A shift toward a more constructive outlook would require a reversal in the 12-month percentile trend or a significant improvement in mortgage affordability and buyer demographics.