GDPNow Estimate (Q4 2025)
4.24% ▲
Strong Growth · Last Update: +1.56 ppt
Actual GDP (Q3 2025)
4.4%
GDPNow is a real-time forecast of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It provides a 'nowcast' based on currently available economic data, offering an early look at economic performance before official releases.
GDPNow Estimates vs Actual GDP
GDPNow Final Estimates vs Actual GDP
| Quarter |
GDPNow |
Actual GDP |
Error |
| Q4 2025 |
4.2% |
Pending |
— |
| Q3 2025 |
3.5% |
4.4% |
-0.9 ppt |
| Q2 2025 |
2.9% |
3.8% |
-0.9 ppt |
| Q1 2025 |
-2.7% |
-0.6% |
-2.1 ppt |
| Q4 2024 |
2.3% |
1.9% |
+0.4 ppt |
| Q3 2024 |
2.8% |
3.3% |
-0.5 ppt |
| Q2 2024 |
2.6% |
3.6% |
-1.0 ppt |
| Q1 2024 |
2.7% |
0.8% |
+1.9 ppt |
The GDPNow estimate for Q4 2025 currently stands at a robust 4.24% annualized, marking a significant increase of +1.56 percentage points from its initial estimate of 2.68% at the start of the quarter. This current estimate is higher than the previous quarter's final nowcast of 3.47% and slightly below the latest official actual GDP of 4.4% for Q3 2025.
Growth Regime
Growth Pace
Strong Growth
The economy is currently in a 'Strong Growth' regime, reflecting the robust Q4 2025 GDPNow estimate. This strong growth is further supported by 'rising' estimate momentum throughout the quarter, indicating increasing economic strength.
Nowcast Accuracy
Avg Absolute Error
1.10 ppt
| Quarter | Nowcast | Actual | Error |
|---|
| Q3 2025 |
3.5% |
4.4% |
-0.9 ppt |
| Q2 2025 |
2.9% |
3.8% |
-0.9 ppt |
| Q1 2025 |
-2.7% |
-0.6% |
-2.1 ppt |
| Q4 2024 |
2.3% |
1.9% |
+0.4 ppt |
| Q3 2024 |
2.8% |
3.3% |
-0.5 ppt |
| Q2 2024 |
2.6% |
3.6% |
-1.0 ppt |
Historically, GDPNow has shown an average absolute error of 1.10 percentage points when compared to actual GDP. In recent quarters, the nowcast has often underestimated actual growth, as seen in Q3 2025 (3.5% nowcast vs 4.4% actual) and Q2 2025 (2.9% nowcast vs 3.8% actual), with a larger underestimation in Q1 2025.
Market Snapshot
Note: GDPNow is a model-based nowcast, not an official data release. Market moves shown below reflect broad conditions and are not necessarily driven by estimate updates.
Market Snapshot
Top Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| TRINZ Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes due 2029 |
+247.87% |
-71.2% |
| OXLCI Oxford Lane Capital Corp. |
+220.75% |
-68.8% |
| NMFCZ New Mountain Finance Corporation 8.250% Notes due 2028 |
+219.39% |
-68.7% |
| ADAMI Adamas Trust, Inc. |
+194.87% |
-66.1% |
| MFAN MFA Financial, Inc. 8.875% Senior Notes |
+191.87% |
-65.6% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| OLMA Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
-37.17% |
-18.2% |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 6.625 NT 2046 |
-14.94% |
+10.5% |
| ORIC ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
-13.84% |
+29.2% |
| SLMBP SLM Corporation |
-10.00% |
+0.0% |
| AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. |
-9.80% |
+31.7% |
In the broader market context, the S&P 500 is currently at $6740, experiencing a -2.1% decline over the last month. This market movement suggests a potential disconnect or cautious sentiment despite the strong model-based GDP nowcast.
Sector Performance
Sector Performance
| ETF |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XLI Industrials |
$169.94 |
-1.10% |
+0.3% |
+13.0% |
+28.7% |
+9.6% |
+2.4% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary |
$114.44 |
-1.30% |
-4.7% |
-2.3% |
+9.2% |
-4.2% |
-2.6% |
| XLF Financials |
$50.57 |
-0.26% |
-6.3% |
-5.8% |
+2.1% |
-7.7% |
-4.2% |
| XLK Technology |
$137.29 |
+0.39% |
-0.6% |
+4.8% |
+24.7% |
-4.6% |
+1.5% |
Growth-Sensitive Stocks
Growth-Sensitive Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| FDX FedEx |
$359.10 |
+1.63% |
-0.9% |
+60.4% |
+46.0% |
+24.3% |
+1.1% |
| AMZN Amazon |
$213.21 |
+0.83% |
-8.5% |
-9.5% |
+2.3% |
-7.6% |
-6.4% |
| CAT Caterpillar |
$680.90 |
+0.23% |
-1.6% |
+62.5% |
+103.4% |
+18.9% |
+0.5% |
| COST Costco |
$998.10 |
+0.15% |
+2.0% |
+4.6% |
-4.3% |
+15.7% |
+4.1% |
| HD Home Depot |
$357.92 |
-0.11% |
-7.6% |
-13.1% |
-5.7% |
+4.0% |
-5.5% |
| UPS UPS |
$102.36 |
-0.48% |
-12.3% |
+21.2% |
-10.9% |
+3.2% |
-10.2% |
| DE Deere & Co |
$589.77 |
-0.56% |
+4.0% |
+24.6% |
+27.4% |
+26.7% |
+6.0% |
| GS Goldman Sachs |
$821.08 |
-0.62% |
-10.1% |
+9.6% |
+39.9% |
-6.6% |
-8.0% |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase |
$289.40 |
-1.35% |
-8.8% |
-4.3% |
+16.9% |
-9.8% |
-6.7% |
| BA Boeing |
$231.11 |
-1.65% |
-2.1% |
+0.2% |
+41.6% |
+6.4% |
+0.0% |
The strong growth outlook implied by the rising GDPNow estimate suggests positive implications for cyclical and growth-sensitive stocks. Sectors tied to economic expansion, such as technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary, could see increased investor interest.
Positioning
Given the 'Strong Growth' regime and 'rising' estimate momentum, an overweight positioning in cyclical assets over defensive ones appears warranted. Investors may consider increasing exposure to companies that benefit from economic expansion, while potentially reducing allocations to more stable, defensive sectors.