Policy Uncertainty Index (Daily)
879 ▲
Extreme · Day Chg: +325.8
The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index quantifies policy-related uncertainty by analyzing news articles. A higher index value indicates greater uncertainty, influencing business decisions and investment strategies. It serves as a key indicator of the overall economic and political landscape.
Policy Uncertainty Index
EPU Index Summary
| Measure |
Level |
1D Chg |
1W Chg |
1M Chg |
| Daily EPU |
879 |
+326 |
+485 |
+603 |
| Monthly EPU |
262 |
— |
— |
+61 |
| News-Based EPU |
386 |
— |
— |
— |
The Daily EPU Index has soared to an extreme level of 878.5, marking a substantial +325.8 day change and a +602.9 month change. This sharp increase signifies a strong upward trend in economic policy uncertainty, creating a challenging environment for businesses and investors.
Uncertainty Regime
Uncertainty
Extreme Uncertainty
The current environment is characterized by "Extreme Uncertainty" with a "rising" trend. This places the economy in a highly volatile regime, significantly diverging from historical norms and demanding heightened caution.
Policy Uncertainty Trend (Daily)
Historical Parallels
| Month | EPU | 3M Later | 6M Later |
|---|
| Oct 2025 |
218 |
262 |
N/A |
| Sep 2025 |
224 |
201 |
N/A |
| Aug 2025 |
254 |
219 |
N/A |
| Jul 2025 |
252 |
218 |
262 |
| Jun 2025 |
254 |
224 |
201 |
Historically, periods of similar extreme EPU levels have often preceded a moderation in uncertainty. On average, the EPU Index was 248.8 three months later and 235.4 six months later, suggesting potential for future stabilization.
Market Snapshot
Note: The EPU Index measures policy-related uncertainty from news coverage and forecaster disagreement. It is not a market-moving release — market data below reflects broad conditions.
Market Snapshot
Top Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| TRINZ Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes due 2029 |
+247.87% |
-71.2% |
| OXLCI Oxford Lane Capital Corp. |
+220.75% |
-68.8% |
| NMFCZ New Mountain Finance Corporation 8.250% Notes due 2028 |
+219.39% |
-68.7% |
| ADAMI Adamas Trust, Inc. |
+194.87% |
-66.1% |
| MFAN MFA Financial, Inc. 8.875% Senior Notes |
+191.87% |
-65.6% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| OLMA Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
-37.17% |
-18.2% |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 6.625 NT 2046 |
-14.94% |
+10.5% |
| ORIC ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
-13.84% |
+29.2% |
| SLMBP SLM Corporation |
-10.00% |
+0.0% |
| AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. |
-9.80% |
+31.7% |
The S&P 500 stands at $6740, having declined 2.1% over the past month. While the EPU Index is not a market-moving release, this backdrop of extreme uncertainty often correlates with increased market apprehension and cautious investor sentiment.
Defensive Sector Performance
Defensive Sector Performance
| ETF |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XLU Utilities |
$46.74 |
-0.36% |
+8.5% |
+13.2% |
+24.1% |
+9.5% |
+10.6% |
| XLP Consumer Staples |
$85.78 |
-1.00% |
-1.4% |
+8.0% |
+6.9% |
+10.4% |
+0.7% |
| XLV Health Care |
$152.70 |
+0.05% |
-2.1% |
+12.1% |
+3.8% |
-1.4% |
-0.1% |
| XLRE Real Estate |
$42.89 |
-1.10% |
+3.4% |
+4.6% |
+2.2% |
+6.3% |
+5.5% |
Defensive & Policy-Sensitive Stocks
Defensive & Policy-Sensitive Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| LMT Lockheed Martin |
$671.77 |
+0.96% |
+11.4% |
+47.0% |
+48.0% |
+38.9% |
+13.5% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson |
$240.40 |
+0.20% |
+2.5% |
+34.5% |
+47.9% |
+16.2% |
+4.6% |
| SO Southern Company |
$97.48 |
+0.02% |
+8.0% |
+6.1% |
+11.8% |
+11.8% |
+10.0% |
| PG Procter & Gamble |
$153.63 |
+0.02% |
-2.1% |
-2.8% |
-10.2% |
+7.2% |
+0.0% |
| WMT Walmart |
$123.80 |
-0.09% |
-3.3% |
+22.7% |
+30.0% |
+11.1% |
-1.2% |
| GIS General Mills |
$44.29 |
-0.32% |
-8.7% |
-9.6% |
-24.8% |
-4.8% |
-6.6% |
| NEE NextEra Energy |
$91.02 |
-0.52% |
+1.2% |
+28.4% |
+31.2% |
+13.4% |
+3.2% |
| KO Coca-Cola |
$77.04 |
-0.57% |
-0.4% |
+13.7% |
+12.4% |
+10.2% |
+1.7% |
| ED Consolidated Edison |
$112.28 |
-1.16% |
+3.6% |
+14.8% |
+13.9% |
+13.0% |
+5.7% |
| RTX RTX Corp |
$209.76 |
-2.74% |
+6.6% |
+32.2% |
+63.3% |
+14.4% |
+8.7% |
In this climate of extreme uncertainty, defensive stocks are generally favored over cyclical counterparts. Sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare may offer greater stability and resilience compared to more growth-oriented or economically sensitive industries.
Positioning
Investors might consider defensive positioning, prioritizing high-quality assets with robust balance sheets and stable cash flows. Implementing volatility hedging strategies, such as options or inverse ETFs, could also help mitigate potential downside risks in this uncertain period.