NFCI (0 = average)
-0.5236 ▲
Loose · WoW: +0.0094
What the NFCI is: The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) condenses more than 100 market indicators into a weekly gauge of U.S. financial conditions. It is updated weekly (released Wednesday for the prior Friday) and is widely used to track credit availability, risk premia and system stress—helpful for investors and policymakers alike.
Financial Conditions Indices
Financial Conditions Indices
| Index |
Current |
WoW |
YoY |
| NFCI |
-0.5236 |
+0.0094 |
-0.0416 |
| Adjusted NFCI |
-0.5985 |
-0.0043 |
-0.0709 |
For the week ending February 27, 2026 (released March 4, 2026), the NFCI stands at -0.5236, placing financial conditions in the Loose category. Week-over-week the index ticked up by +0.0094, a change small enough to be classified as stable under standard trend thresholds. The Adjusted NFCI (ANFCI), which strips out effects of current economic activity, is -0.5985, showing even more accommodative underlying conditions. Year-over-year the NFCI is -0.0416 lower, consistent with a modest drift toward looser-than-average conditions over the past 12 months.
Conditions Regime
Conditions
Loose Conditions
Current conditions are firmly accommodative: NFCI below -0.5 signals Loose conditions, and the tiny +0.0094 weekly move keeps the trend stable (well within the ±0.05 'no meaningful change' band). That regime typically implies easier credit access and compressed risk premia, supporting higher risk appetite unless reversed by sustained tightening.
Historical Parallels
Avg NFCI 4W Later
-0.4889
Avg NFCI 13W Later
-0.5056
| Date | NFCI | 4W Later | 13W Later |
|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 |
-0.5088 |
-0.5368 |
-0.5236 |
| Nov 21, 2025 |
-0.5068 |
-0.5261 |
-0.5331 |
| Nov 14, 2025 |
-0.5072 |
-0.5178 |
-0.5424 |
| Nov 07, 2025 |
-0.5091 |
-0.5124 |
-0.5505 |
| Oct 31, 2025 |
-0.5125 |
-0.5088 |
-0.5565 |
There are 47 similar historical periods; on average the NFCI four weeks later was -0.4889—a modest move toward less loose (less negative) territory. That pattern suggests episodes at this level can drift slightly tighter over a month but generally remain in accommodative territory absent a clear shock.
Market Snapshot
Note: NFCI is a weekly index with limited direct intraday market impact. Market data shown below reflects broad conditions.
Market Snapshot
Top Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| OXLCI Oxford Lane Capital Corp. |
+222.93% |
-69.0% |
| ADAMI Adamas Trust, Inc. |
+195.11% |
-65.9% |
| RCD Ready Capital Corporation Notes -15.12.29 |
+56.07% |
-34.7% |
| SSRM SSR Mining Inc. |
+14.79% |
+26.7% |
| PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC |
+11.66% |
+21.3% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| WBTN WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. Common stock |
-17.88% |
-4.7% |
| GTLB GitLab Inc. |
-11.61% |
-23.7% |
| VYX NCR Voyix Corporation |
-9.24% |
-19.3% |
| DAKT Daktronics, Inc. |
-9.20% |
+7.5% |
| SE Sea Limited |
-8.45% |
-24.6% |
As a weekly systemic gauge, the NFCI rarely drives intraday market moves but frames the macro backdrop for credit and equity markets. With the S&P 500 at $6,817 (1M: -1.8%), the looser NFCI is consistent with a financial environment that supports risk-taking even as equities show short-term volatility.
Sector Performance
Sector Performance
| ETF |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XLF Financials |
$51.21 |
+0.23% |
-4.2% |
-4.5% |
-0.5% |
-6.5% |
-2.4% |
| XLK Technology |
$137.50 |
+0.75% |
-4.4% |
+5.1% |
+22.7% |
-4.5% |
-2.7% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary |
$114.36 |
+0.64% |
-5.6% |
-0.9% |
+6.8% |
-4.2% |
-3.9% |
| XLU Utilities |
$47.07 |
-0.79% |
+8.8% |
+13.2% |
+22.2% |
+10.3% |
+10.6% |
Financial Stocks
Financial Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| SCHW Charles Schwab |
$95.24 |
+1.03% |
-8.4% |
-0.6% |
+20.5% |
-4.7% |
-6.6% |
| BX Blackstone |
$110.92 |
+1.02% |
-22.1% |
-34.7% |
-29.7% |
-28.0% |
-20.4% |
| MS Morgan Stanley |
$165.95 |
+0.98% |
-9.2% |
+11.0% |
+27.3% |
-6.5% |
-7.5% |
| BLK BlackRock |
$1052.59 |
+0.70% |
-5.9% |
-6.2% |
+9.3% |
-1.7% |
-4.2% |
| BAC Bank of America |
$49.97 |
-0.16% |
-6.1% |
-1.0% |
+10.3% |
-9.1% |
-4.3% |
| ICE Intercontinental Exchange |
$164.78 |
-0.80% |
-5.2% |
-6.4% |
-4.1% |
+1.7% |
-3.4% |
| CME CME Group |
$325.13 |
-1.63% |
+12.5% |
+22.6% |
+30.0% |
+19.1% |
+14.2% |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase |
$300.26 |
-2.66% |
-1.8% |
+0.1% |
+15.3% |
-6.4% |
-0.1% |
| C Citigroup |
$110.76 |
-3.01% |
-3.8% |
+15.4% |
+41.4% |
-5.1% |
-2.0% |
| GS Goldman Sachs |
$862.58 |
-3.08% |
-7.8% |
+15.7% |
+40.0% |
-1.9% |
-6.0% |
Looser financial conditions tend to support financial-sector earnings via stronger lending activity and higher deal flow for capital-markets businesses. However, extended accommodation can compress net interest margins for banks and encourage greater risk‑taking, creating a mixed outlook across banks, insurers and broker-dealers.
Positioning
Tactically, consider modest overweight to high‑quality financials and selective exposure to credit-sensitive cyclicals while monitoring margin risk for banks. Favor higher‑credit-quality credit and short-duration instruments if worried about sudden tightening. Key watch items: any weekly NFCI move > +0.05 (tightening signal) or a materially narrower ANFCI, which would warrant reducing cyclical risk exposure.