Today's jobless claims data, while better than expected, did not prevent a broad market downturn, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 all closing lower. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are a significant market driver, impacting oil prices and overall risk sentiment. Markets largely anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates at its upcoming March FOMC meeting, with a high probability of no change priced in. However, forecasts suggest one or two rate cuts could occur later in 2026, with the first potentially by September. Investors will closely monitor the upcoming CPI and PCE inflation reports, as well as the comprehensive BLS employment report for February, for further clues on economic direction and Fed policy.
Initial jobless claims held steady at 213,000 for the week ending February 28, unchanged from the prior week's revised level. This figure notably beat the consensus expectation of 215,000 claims, signaling unexpected resilience in the labor market. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, decreased to 215,750, indicating a slight easing in the underlying trend. This stability comes despite broader market indices experiencing declines today.
The Numbers
| Week Ending | Initial Claims | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28 | 213,000 | +0 |
| Feb 21 | 213,000 | +5,000 |
| Feb 14 | 208,000 | -21,000 |
| Feb 07 | 229,000 | -3,000 |
Trend Analysis
This week's initial claims of 213,000 fall near the lower end of the 52-week range of 192,000 to 264,000, underscoring a relatively tight labor market. The unchanged reading from the previous week, coupled with a slightly declining four-week average, suggests a period of stability rather than a significant shift. Furthermore, U.S.-based employers announced a substantial 55% drop in job cuts in February compared to January, and a 72% decrease from a year ago, reinforcing stable labor market conditions. This trend indicates that while hiring may not be accelerating rapidly, widespread layoffs are not currently a dominant feature.
Initial Claims Trend
Weekly new unemployment claims (thousands)
Source: Department of Labor via FRED
Continuing Claims
Continuing claims rose by 46,000 to 1,868,000, suggesting that some individuals are facing longer periods of unemployment after losing their jobs. This increase occurs amidst a backdrop of numerous companies, including Amazon, Heineken, and UPS, announcing significant layoffs in early 2026, often citing factors like AI implementation, economic uncertainty, and restructuring. While initial filings remain low, the rise in continuing claims indicates a potential challenge for re-employment, possibly reflecting a mismatch in skills or a more cautious hiring environment in certain sectors.
Labor Market Health
The Federal Reserve's recent Beige Book described employment levels as generally stable, with seven of twelve districts reporting no change in hiring, though some contacts cited rising nonlabor costs and softer demand. Private sector employment saw a notable increase of 63,000 jobs in February, surpassing forecasts and marking the largest gain since July 2025, despite a downward revision to January's data. Wage growth for job-stayers remained at 4.5% year-over-year in February, while pay growth for job-changers slowed to 6.3%, with the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker also edging down to 3.6% in January. The labor force participation rate stood at 62.50% in January, slightly up from December but below its year-ago level and long-term average, indicating a persistent challenge in fully re-engaging the workforce.
Claims-Sensitive Stocks
| Stock | Price | 1M | 6M | 1Y | YTD | VS S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE Deere | $614.04 | +15.4% | +29.2% | +33.2% | +31.9% | +16.9% |
| SBUX Starbucks | $97.15 | +6.0% | +8.2% | -14.7% | +15.4% | +7.5% |
| CAT Caterpillar | $731.97 | +5.9% | +76.4% | +123.0% | +27.8% | +7.5% |
| MAR Marriott | $335.94 | +5.2% | +27.0% | +21.6% | +8.3% | +6.7% |
| CI Cigna | $284.74 | +4.9% | -4.8% | -7.2% | +3.5% | +6.4% |
| MCD McDonald's | $331.74 | +4.1% | +5.1% | +10.3% | +8.5% | +5.7% |
| WMT Walmart | $127.81 | +3.0% | +30.6% | +32.0% | +14.7% | +4.6% |
| UNH UnitedHealth | $291.96 | +2.2% | -4.9% | -36.4% | -11.6% | +3.8% |
| HLT Hilton | $304.91 | +0.7% | +10.5% | +15.8% | +6.1% | +2.2% |
| PAYC Paycom | $134.11 | +0.6% | -39.0% | -38.8% | -15.8% | +2.1% |
| UBER Uber | $76.65 | -5.2% | -17.4% | +3.0% | -6.2% | -3.6% |
| ADP ADP | $217.16 | -12.3% | -27.2% | -30.8% | -15.6% | -10.7% |
| LYFT Lyft | $13.84 | -19.8% | -17.6% | +9.3% | -28.5% | -18.3% |
| MAN ManpowerGroup | $27.96 | -23.8% | -32.2% | -50.6% | -6.0% | -22.2% |
| RHI Robert Half | $24.32 | -28.5% | -34.7% | -55.6% | -10.5% | -27.0% |
Market Response
| Index | Today's Gap |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.27% |
| Dow Jones | -0.31% |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.44% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.63% |
| Ticker | Company | Change |
|---|---|---|
| PRH | Prudential Financial, Inc | +313.2% |
| HTFC | Horizon Technology Financ | +310.7% |
| TCPA | TransCanada PipeLines Lim | +294.3% |
| ELC | Entergy Louisiana, LLC CO | +246.4% |
| ADAMH | Adamas Trust, Inc. | +184.1% |
| SCCD | Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00 | -67.4% |
| OLPX | Olaplex Holdings, Inc. | -18.3% |
| PMI | Picard Medical, Inc. | -14.6% |
| STUB | StubHub Holdings, Inc. | -14.1% |
| CIEN | Ciena Corporation | -9.2% |