Personal Savings Rate
4.5% ▲
Low Savings · MoM: +0.5 ppt
The Personal Savings Rate measures the percentage of disposable income that households keep after taxes and spending. It serves as a vital indicator of consumer financial health and future spending capacity.
Personal Income & Spending
Personal Income & Spending
| Measure |
Current |
MoM |
YoY |
| Savings Rate |
4.5% |
+0.5 ppt |
-0.6 ppt |
| Personal Income |
$26,698.9B |
+0.4% |
+4.4% |
| Personal Consumption |
$21,536.6B |
+0.4% |
+5.3% |
In January 2026, the savings rate rose by 0.5 percentage points to reach 4.5%, driven by a 0.4% increase in personal income that offset matching consumption growth. While this reflects a rising trend, the rate remains 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous year. This level sits below the long-term historical average, suggesting consumers are still adjusting their budgets.
Savings Regime
Savings Regime
Low Savings
The current environment is classified as a Low Savings regime, though the trend is now rising. This suggests that while consumers are beginning to prioritize liquidity, their overall financial flexibility remains constrained compared to historical norms.
Personal Savings Rate Trend
Historical Parallels
| Date | Savings Rate | 3M Later | 6M Later |
|---|
| Jul 2025 |
4.5% |
4.0% |
4.5% |
| Jun 2025 |
4.6% |
4.3% |
4.0% |
| May 2025 |
4.9% |
4.4% |
4.0% |
| Apr 2025 |
5.5% |
4.5% |
4.0% |
| Mar 2025 |
5.1% |
4.6% |
4.3% |
Analysis of 13 similar historical periods indicates that the savings rate typically continues to climb, averaging 4.8% three months later. This pattern suggests a sustained period of consumer caution following initial spikes in the savings rate.
Market Snapshot
Note: The Personal Savings Rate is a monthly indicator released as part of Personal Income & Outlays. Market data shown below reflects broad conditions rather than direct reactions.
Market Snapshot
Top Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF |
+11.73% |
-24.8% |
| NBIS Nebius Group N.V. |
+10.62% |
+27.5% |
| USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation |
+9.10% |
-9.0% |
| MIR Mirion Technologies, Inc. |
+8.77% |
-11.2% |
| ALNT Allient Inc. |
+8.49% |
-5.0% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. |
-16.69% |
+13.7% |
| IPX IperionX Limited |
-10.41% |
-20.9% |
| KYIV Kyivstar Group Ltd. Common Shares |
-7.14% |
-13.6% |
| S SentinelOne, Inc. |
-7.02% |
+6.6% |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation |
-6.00% |
+8.6% |
The broader market has faced headwinds, with the S&P 500 falling 4.5% over the last month to $6632. This volatility likely contributed to the increased savings rate as households sought safety amid equity market declines.
Sector Performance
Sector Performance
| ETF |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary |
$110.86 |
+1.04% |
-5.9% |
-6.3% |
+13.2% |
-7.2% |
-1.4% |
| XLP Consumer Staples |
$84.74 |
-0.04% |
-4.1% |
+6.7% |
+9.2% |
+9.1% |
+0.3% |
| XLF Financials |
$48.89 |
+0.74% |
-7.3% |
-8.9% |
+4.0% |
-10.7% |
-2.8% |
| XLK Technology |
$136.80 |
+1.73% |
-4.3% |
+1.2% |
+30.1% |
-5.0% |
+0.1% |
Consumer & Financial Stocks
Consumer & Financial Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| BAC Bank of America |
$46.72 |
+1.71% |
-13.2% |
-7.9% |
+18.4% |
-15.1% |
-8.8% |
| HD Home Depot |
$339.03 |
+0.78% |
-13.2% |
-19.9% |
-5.3% |
-1.5% |
-8.8% |
| TGT Target |
$117.34 |
+0.57% |
+2.4% |
+28.2% |
+11.8% |
+20.0% |
+6.8% |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase |
$283.44 |
+0.43% |
-8.8% |
-6.8% |
+26.4% |
-11.6% |
-4.4% |
| COST Costco |
$1008.43 |
+0.38% |
+3.1% |
+4.7% |
+9.2% |
+16.9% |
+7.6% |
| WMT Walmart |
$126.52 |
+0.36% |
-1.7% |
+23.3% |
+49.6% |
+13.6% |
+2.7% |
| AMZN Amazon |
$207.67 |
+0.33% |
+1.8% |
-9.7% |
+4.4% |
-10.0% |
+6.2% |
| V Visa |
$307.14 |
+0.15% |
-6.7% |
-10.6% |
-7.4% |
-12.4% |
-2.3% |
| MA Mastercard |
$497.99 |
-0.29% |
-7.3% |
-15.3% |
-4.7% |
-12.8% |
-2.9% |
A rising savings rate can be a double-edged sword, potentially slowing revenue growth for consumer-facing companies while improving the deposit base for financial institutions. Investors should monitor whether this shift signals a broader pullback in discretionary spending.
Positioning
Given the rising savings trend and low-regime status, a tilt toward consumer staples over discretionary stocks may be prudent as households tighten belts. Financial sector positioning should focus on institutions with strong deposit franchises that benefit from increased household capital retention.