10-Year Breakeven
2.34%
Anchored · WoW: +0.05 ppt · MoM: +0.02 ppt
5Y Breakeven
2.56%
W: +0.10 · M: +0.08
5Y5Y Forward
2.12%
W: +0.00 · M: -0.04
TIPS breakeven rates represent the market's expectation of inflation over a specific period, derived from the yield difference between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and conventional Treasury bonds. A higher breakeven rate indicates that investors anticipate greater inflation. These rates serve as a key indicator for future price trends.
Breakeven Inflation Rates
| Measure |
Current (%) |
1W Change |
1M Change |
| 5-Year Breakeven |
2.56% |
+0.10 ppt |
+0.08 ppt |
| 10-Year Breakeven |
2.34% |
+0.05 ppt |
+0.02 ppt |
| 5Y5Y Forward |
2.12% |
+0.00 ppt |
-0.04 ppt |
As of March 9, 2026, the 5-year breakeven inflation rate stands at 2.56%, reflecting near-term inflation expectations. The 10-year breakeven rate is 2.34%, showing a slight increase of +0.02 percentage points over the last month. Looking further out, the 5Y5Y forward breakeven rate, which measures inflation expectations for the five-year period starting five years from now, is 2.12%. These figures collectively indicate the market's outlook on future inflation.
Expectations Regime
Expectations Regime
Above Target
The current inflation expectations regime is categorized as 'Above Target' with a 'stable' trend, suggesting that market participants anticipate inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This stable trend implies that while inflation is expected to persist at elevated levels, there isn't an immediate expectation of significant acceleration or deceleration.
10-Year Breakeven Trend (Daily)
Historical Parallels
Avg 10Y BE 1M Later
2.24%
Avg 10Y BE 3M Later
2.29%
| Date | 10Y BE | 1M Later | 3M Later |
|---|
| Dec 04, 2025 |
2.26% |
2.27% |
2.34% |
| Dec 03, 2025 |
2.24% |
2.26% |
2.35% |
| Dec 02, 2025 |
2.24% |
2.25% |
2.31% |
| Dec 01, 2025 |
2.24% |
2.25% |
2.29% |
| Nov 28, 2025 |
2.23% |
2.24% |
2.29% |
Historically, periods of stable, above-target breakeven inflation rates have often preceded environments where central banks maintain a vigilant stance on monetary policy. Such levels can indicate an economy operating with robust demand, where businesses have some pricing power, but not necessarily runaway inflation that would trigger aggressive tightening.
Market Snapshot
Note: Breakeven rates are market-derived and move continuously. Market data shown reflects broad conditions.
Market Snapshot
Top Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| NMFCZ New Mountain Finance Corporation 8.250% Notes due 2028 |
+220.03% |
-68.6% |
| ADAMG Adamas Trust, Inc. - 9.125% Senior Notes Due 2030 |
+185.70% |
-65.0% |
| AFGC American Financial Group, Inc. |
+159.78% |
-62.4% |
| SCCE Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00% Note |
+93.94% |
-47.6% |
| BHVN Biohaven Ltd. |
+16.45% |
-5.1% |
Bottom Movers
| Stock | Gap | 1M |
|---|
| BNTX BioNTech SE |
-18.94% |
-3.2% |
| EVO Evotec SE |
-13.20% |
-13.9% |
| GDXU MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN |
-11.45% |
+22.9% |
| FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. |
-9.16% |
+19.6% |
| SLMBP SLM Corporation |
-9.04% |
+0.4% |
The broader market context shows the S&P 500 at $6796, with a flat performance over the last month (0.0% change). This stability in the equity market, despite above-target inflation expectations, suggests that investors may have already priced in the current inflation outlook or are focusing on other economic factors.
Inflation-Sensitive Sectors
Inflation-Sensitive Sectors
| ETF |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| XLE Energy |
$56.32 |
-0.47% |
+7.9% |
+31.1% |
+35.4% |
+26.0% |
+7.9% |
| XLB Materials |
$49.99 |
+0.07% |
-1.0% |
+9.8% |
+16.4% |
+10.2% |
-1.0% |
| XLU Utilities |
$46.85 |
-0.45% |
+8.7% |
+13.9% |
+27.0% |
+9.7% |
+8.7% |
| XLRE Real Estate |
$42.98 |
-1.30% |
+4.2% |
+3.8% |
+5.3% |
+6.5% |
+4.3% |
Inflation-Sensitive Stocks
Inflation-Sensitive Stocks
| Stock |
Price |
Open Gap |
1M |
6M |
1Y |
YTD |
VS S&P 500 |
| NEM Newmont |
$116.96 |
+0.08% |
+7.8% |
+53.6% |
+168.4% |
+17.1% |
+7.8% |
| GLD SPDR Gold Trust |
$472.53 |
-0.94% |
+6.9% |
+42.7% |
+76.2% |
+19.2% |
+7.0% |
| CVX Chevron |
$189.44 |
+0.82% |
+5.7% |
+23.3% |
+26.8% |
+24.3% |
+5.7% |
| BHP BHP Group |
$72.89 |
+1.15% |
+5.5% |
+34.0% |
+49.9% |
+20.7% |
+5.5% |
| NEE NextEra Energy |
$92.01 |
-0.55% |
+3.1% |
+29.8% |
+33.5% |
+14.6% |
+3.2% |
| XOM ExxonMobil |
$150.44 |
-0.79% |
+3.0% |
+37.7% |
+42.4% |
+25.0% |
+3.0% |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan |
$60.49 |
+0.81% |
+2.1% |
+31.0% |
+62.3% |
+19.1% |
+2.2% |
| COST Costco |
$1005.30 |
-0.48% |
+1.6% |
+4.5% |
-1.7% |
+16.6% |
+1.7% |
| TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF |
$111.61 |
-0.07% |
+0.9% |
+1.2% |
+5.4% |
+1.5% |
+1.0% |
| WMT Walmart |
$124.34 |
-0.10% |
-2.0% |
+23.7% |
+32.4% |
+11.6% |
-2.0% |
In an environment of stable, above-target inflation expectations, inflation-sensitive stocks, such as those in commodity-related sectors or real estate, may continue to find support. Companies with strong pricing power and low sensitivity to input cost fluctuations could also outperform, while growth stocks might face headwinds from potentially higher discount rates if long-term rates adjust.
Positioning
Investors seeking to hedge against inflation may consider maintaining exposure to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which are designed to protect against rising prices. Real assets, including real estate and certain commodities, can also serve as effective inflation hedges. Diversifying portfolios with assets that historically perform well in an 'Above Target' but 'stable' inflation regime could be a prudent strategy.