Institutional Investors Increase NVIDIA Exposure as Valuation Compresses Toward S&P 500 Levels
Carderock Capital Management and a cohort of institutional peers significantly expanded their positions in NVIDIA ($NVDA) during the most recent quarter, signaling conviction despite a challenging start to 2026. This accumulation comes as the semiconductor giant’s valuation multiple has compressed to levels not seen in over a decade, trading near the broader S&P 500 average for the first time in years.
In its latest SEC disclosure, Carderock Capital Management reported a 35.7% increase in its NVIDIA holdings, adding 12,422 shares to bring its total position to 47,258 shares. The move reflects a broader trend of institutional support, with firms like Joule Financial and Cyr Financial also boosting their stakes. Currently, institutional investors hold approximately 65.27% of NVIDIA’s float, providing a stabilizing floor even as the stock faces technical headwinds. As of late March 2026, NVIDIA is trading at $167.52, down roughly 10% year-to-date and 21% below its 52-week high of $212.19. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 31.4, the stock is approaching technically oversold territory, sitting below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
While technical indicators suggest caution, NVIDIA’s fundamental growth engine remains robust. The company recently reported a 73.2% year-over-year revenue surge to $68.13 billion, driven by the expansion of its 'AI Factory' ecosystem. Earlier this week, NVIDIA solidified its industrial footprint through an expanded partnership with SLB to develop modular AI infrastructure for the energy sector. Furthermore, the high valuation of NVIDIA-backed startups—such as Reflection AI, which is reportedly seeking a $25 billion valuation—underscores the continued demand for the company’s hardware-software ecosystem in the sovereign and open-source AI markets.
However, investors are weighing these growth drivers against intensifying regulatory and geopolitical risks. Bipartisan pressure from U.S. Senators to freeze certain export licenses follows allegations of chip diversion, a move that could restrict NVIDIA’s access to key markets in China and Southeast Asia. Additionally, recent insider activity has raised eyebrows; CFO Colette Kress and EVP Ajay Puri collectively sold over $60 million in stock in mid-March. Despite these near-term uncertainties, Wall Street analysts maintain a strong bullish consensus, with an average price target of $275.95 representing a potential upside of 76% from current levels.
NVDA Stock Data
Key Takeaways
- Carderock Capital Management increased its NVIDIA position by 35.7% in the most recent quarter, making it the fund's 21st largest holding.
- NVIDIA’s stock is currently testing technical support near $167.52, with an RSI of 31.4 suggesting it is nearing an oversold condition after a 10% YTD decline.
- Bipartisan legislative pressure to pause export licenses and significant insider selling by the CFO and EVP remain the primary near-term risks for investors.