Casella Waste Beats EPS, Raises FY Guidance; Shares Surge 5.4% After Hours

Earnings Summary

Casella Waste reported a non‑GAAP earnings per share of $1.45, crushing the Street’s estimate of $0.10 – a $1.35 beat. Revenue came in at $457.3 million, marginally above the consensus of $454.6 million, representing a 9.6% year‑over‑year increase. The company posted a GAAP net loss of $(5.5) million, but adjusted net income rose 5.2% to $12.8 million and adjusted EBITDA climbed 12.3% to $97.1 million.

Guidance & Outlook

During the earnings call management raised its FY 2026 guidance:

- Revenue: $2.060 billion – $2.080 billion (up from $1.970 billion – $1.990 billion)

- Adjusted EBITDA: $473 million – $483 million (up from $455 million – $465 million)

- Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $200 million – $210 million (up from $195 million – $205 million)

CEO Ned Coletta attributed the uplift to the completion of four acquisitions, including the $100 million Star Waste purchase that closed on April 1, and to strong pricing programs that delivered 5.1% solid‑waste price growth.

Conference Call Highlights

- Pricing power: Municipal solid‑waste pricing rose 5.0% YoY; landfill pricing was up 4.3%.

- Fuel recovery fees: The company’s floating fuel‑recovery fees fully offset higher diesel costs.

- Automation & safety: Ongoing fleet automation, route optimization and safety initiatives were highlighted as cost‑saving levers.

- Acquisition integration: Integration of Star Waste and three other 2026 acquisitions is on schedule, adding roughly $150 million of annualized revenue.

Market Reaction

The earnings beat and upgraded outlook sparked a 5.4% after‑hours rally, lifting the share price to $83.53 from the prior close of $79.25. Volume was well above the 10‑day average, indicating strong investor enthusiasm for the guidance lift and the company’s acquisition‑driven growth model.

Analyst Commentary

- InsiderMonkey noted that the results “position Casella for long‑term, compounding growth,” praising the pricing momentum and the Star Waste acquisition as a catalyst for higher density and margin expansion.

- Finviz reported an average analyst price target of $112.80, well above the current price, reflecting optimism that the raised guidance will translate into higher earnings multiples.

- TipRanks highlighted the $1.45 adjusted EPS beat and said analysts expect the firm’s fuel‑recovery fee structure to protect margins against future fuel price volatility.

Overall, the consensus view is that Casella’s disciplined acquisition strategy, coupled with robust pricing and cost‑control measures, justifies a re‑rating of the stock and a higher target price.

Looking ahead, management reaffirmed confidence in meeting the new guidance ranges and signaled continued focus on integrating acquisitions, expanding automation, and leveraging fuel‑recovery fees to sustain margin expansion throughout 2026.